BEVs deals and information

ABrass

There's some serious hubris on this thread. The engineers at BMW, GM and every other major manufacturer of cars have failed to spot the obviousness of range extenders or at least do them right, and only GreatMusk has the vision to realise it.

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

There's some serious hubris on this thread. The engineers at BMW, GM and every other major manufacturer of cars have failed to spot the obviousness of range extenders or at least do them right, and only GreatMusk has the vision to realise it.

Well the obvious reality is petrol and diesel cars work and are the best option right now for consumers especially in the big auto markets like the USA where a gallon of fuel costs just $2.50 (50p a litre)

This is more a hypothetical asking what would likely take market share if pure internal combustion engines were regulated away.

Pure BEVs
Plug in hybrids
Hydrogen cars
Something else

My guess is plug in hybrids will win

Here is a comment from a plug in hybrid owner

'My Gen 1 Chevy Volt is managing about 1800 mpg, with a 38 mile battery'
That's basically saying 97.5% of his miles are electric And that's with a tiny 38 mile battery

Plug in hybrids will improve as batteries improve
But fundamentally 480kg of batteries will never be cheaper than 60kg of batteries and about 100-150kg range extender or petrol engine

Of course just plain petrol cars are the cheapest to buy so they win as things stand

Martyn1981

joefizz wrote: »

We've already mentioned that when people put deposits down in the UK they were touted as 25k cars, ended up 3 years later at 45k

Sorry, I thought that had been cleared up, and what you'd posted was that the US cars would be around £25k ($35k), the UK one's were never touted as £25k, the figures were around £35k, and at £38k for the SR+, that's proven to be correct.

Also important to note is that whilst these cars seem expensive to many, including myself, they are actually about on par with their peers, and once running costs are included, are cheaper.

Martyn1981

1961Nick wrote: »

"Amazon grew while not making a loss" would be a better description. The Amazon business model repeatedly scared investors to death & resulted in a lot of negative press. There was talk that 'Prime' could be Amazon's downfall - delivering something that costs £1 for free ... are you mad!!

I hardly think you can lump EM into a group with "failing businessmen". You can probably count his peers on one hand!

I see our resident genius is classing all of Tesla's investment/CAPEX as a loss. Thank you for drawing comparisons to Amazon who have employed the same strategy of expansion over net profits.

What most critics of Tesla ignore, is the fact that after each ramp up of production the company went profitable, they did it after the S, X and 3. In each case, they then immediately went back to high CAPEX spending for the next model, in this most recent case, the TMY and Shanghai Gigafactory, and then immediately get criticised by the same 'know nothings' for making a 'loss'.

This criticism is not going to end soon, since more CAPEX will soon be needed for the pick-up and Semi ramp ups, but it looks like Tesla is now close to covering ongoing CAPEX from revenue.

It's also nice to see TESLA once again having the highest market cap of any US car manufacturer, once again surpassing both Ford and GM, and that's despite it still being the most shorted stock in the US.

PS - Tesla are also sitting on approx $0.5bn of revenue from sales of their self driving technology. Due to GAAP accounting rules, this money can't be shown as profit until the technology is rolled out, so when updates, such as the advanced summon get deployed, they are able to 'account' for that money bit by bit. So this is revenue they have already received, but not yet included as a profit.

GreatApe

It took Amazon 6 years to become profitable post IPO and then 16 years after that it has been profitable more or less consistently. The vast majority of Amazon growth was when it was profitable

Tesla is 9.5 years post IPO and will again this year post a loss
So already Tesla is 4 years behind Amazon

Also the 6 years of losses at Amazon were much less than the losses Tesla has already sustained

Tesla is not Amazon
Just because a business is loss making but growing revenue doesn't make it Amazon.
Thousands of business grow sales but make losses and don't become Amazon

Tesla is not Amazon
Tesla is not Toyota
Tesla is potentially a BMW and can get there around 2026-2030 if governments don't scrap the subsidies.

There is a chance Tesla can become a 'google' or Microsoft and offer the software for all car companies (electric or petrol) software that does advanced safety features and software which does self drive. There is tremendous value in such software upto 100 million copies sold per year.

But there are 100+ rich competent companies working on this Inc Google itself so it's not guaranteed Tesla will win this race. Plus there will be at least two such companies because the Chinese will want a domestic company to so the software for China. Just like China has its own Facebook wattsapp Uber etc. And this Chinese vendor will compete with whoever the American self drive software vendor is. It's not like Facebook where your not going to use a competitor because none of your friends are on it. Self drive software will be stand alone so it doesn't matter which one you go for you'd likely get the best value one

ABrass

On the EV front VWG have started producing the ID3. Which is aimed to undercut the model 3 in terms of price and features. If the model 3 is a modern BMW 3 serries then the ID3 is a modern Golf.

They're aiming to build about 80 a day for a while, then scale up to about 100k in 2020 and 330k per year in 2021. Which is great news, one of the legacy car manufactures actually trying to produce EVs in large volumes.

The comparison is, as always, with Tesla. They've built their China factory which will be producing around 3k cars a week or about 150k a year in 2020. How fast can Tesla continue to scale up without taking losses and how fast can the legacy manufacturers retool without going bust?

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

On the EV front VWG have started producing the ID3. Which is aimed to undercut the model 3 in terms of price and features. If the model 3 is a modern BMW 3 serries then the ID3 is a modern Golf.

They're aiming to build about 80 a day for a while, then scale up to about 100k in 2020 and 330k per year in 2021. Which is great news, one of the legacy car manufactures actually trying to produce EVs in large volumes.

The comparison is, as always, with Tesla. They've built their China factory which will be producing around 3k cars a week or about 150k a year in 2020. How fast can Tesla continue to scale up without taking losses and how fast can the legacy manufacturers retool without going bust?

Why would the car companies want to try and push BEVs?
Their ICE cars are profitable and work well and consumers like them

Consumers don't want BEVs at prices considerably higher than ICE versions

And 500kg of batteries + power electronics + electric motor will never be cheaper than 150kg ICE engine. And charging will never be as quick or convenient as a five minute fill-up

The only way to make BEVs outsell ICE is to make ICE illegal and or slowly regulate ICE away
But then the question becomes why burden your citizens with more expensive less functional transport?

The more logical road for car companies is to first go to mild hybrids then plug in hybrids with pure BEVs reserves for high end high price high margin performance cars. Whatever the case things are going to be much slower than most people imagine. ICE will still be outselling BEVs for most of the 2020s and their fate mostly depends on regulations.

almillar

They can buy a generator from one of many suppliers

I'll repeat a question - you keep banging on about hybrids, and saying that cars could carry generators. Will you please acknowledge the existence of the BMW i3 REx, and Vauxhall Ampere, for two examples of cars you could be driving right now that follow this principle?

The generator would only have been on 4 hours over two years....it will outlast the car

Sounds like a waste and a servicing nightmare. Many i3 ReX owners moved to the BEV, precisely because they so rarely used the petrol generator that it had to start itself purely for maintenance reasons!

It takes a lot of power to accelerate rapidly not so much power to sustain motorway speeds or go up a hill for a minute or two

Wrong. Drive an EV up a hill at motorway speeds and see how much power you're drawing. 20hp won't hold 80MPH unless you're going downhill!

Here is a comment from a plug in hybrid owner

'My Gen 1 Chevy Volt is managing about 1800 mpg, with a 38 mile battery'
That's basically saying 97.5% of his miles are electric And that's with a tiny 38 mile battery

I can tell this person drives a lot of urban miles. This doesn't suit everyone, and everyone won't get those figures. See also, every other 'MPG' figure for hybrids - it's a flawed statistic.

And charging will never be as quick or convenient as a five minute fill-up

I already find it more convenient, and I still run an ICE too, but what would I know?!! You're also calling EVs more expensive to buy, whilst ignoring that they're cheaper to fuel.

The more logical road for car companies is to first go to mild hybrids then plug in hybrids with pure BEVs reserves for high end high price high margin performance cars.

This was the state of play in around 2012, I reckon.

joefizz

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Sorry, I thought that had been cleared up, and what you'd posted was that the US cars would be around £25k ($35k), the UK one's were never touted as £25k, the figures were around £35k, and at £38k for the SR+, that's proven to be correct.

Martyn et al.
I can only go on what people who have actually been through the order process have told me about their expected prices and the subsequent price they paid.
Yes there were uk articles that the car could cost as little as 25k gbp but as pointed out that was a straight usd comparison and not covering shipping and VAT (I can ship a car from the us for about a grand and having imported a car myself the total cost plus shipping is subject to VAT).
At time of ordering the estimates for their long range cars were about 32,33k and post brexit this went up. They both ended up paying 45k. If you order the same white car now you will be paying in excess of 47k. If I want a bog standard long range model three in red I wont get any change out of 50k including charger and delivery to NI. Again a long way from the figures pointed out in this thread.


It is very easy to order a tesla online, go order the poverty spec one with no options, it comes in at about 500 quid short of 40k, add in a wall charger and cost of delivery if you dont live near the delivery point and its over 40k. Then have a look at delivery times. The '40k' poverty spec one has estimated delivery times of feb. The poverty spec long range one coming in at around 48k has delivery times of next month.


Thats the actual reality now, anything about 25k, 35k, 38k etc isnt reality, particularly when people use the performance figures for the close to 50k car and say it costs 35k when thats far from reality. The prices went up last month for anyone not in the initial batch as well.
It really is disingenuous of people (I dont know anyone on this thread but certainly blogs and opinion pieces have been referenced here) to use poverty spec prices of cars which people dont order, for which there are longer waiting times (funny that, the least profitable cars have to be made to order, again no real surprise) in conjunction with higher spec performance figures. Whilst it may not be deliberate it is misleading and not real world.


Yes you can buy a tesla 3 for less than 40k if you install the charger yourself, but would you want that one and be prepared to wait for it?
Howmanyleft has 62 SRs compared to 38 LR to 73 performance so more performance than SRs.
Will be interesting to see how that goes going forward.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

I'll repeat a question - you keep banging on about hybrids, and saying that cars could carry generators. Will you please acknowledge the existence of the BMW i3 REx, and Vauxhall Ampere, for two examples of cars you could be driving right now that follow this principle?

Yes plug in hybrids exist didn't say otherwise

Sounds like a waste and a servicing nightmare.

Nope sound perfectly fine

Wrong. Drive an EV up a hill at motorway speeds and see how much power you're drawing. 20hp won't hold 80MPH unless you're going downhill!

I didn't say the car would need only 20HP to go up hill I said 20HP is sufficient to keep it at 80MPH on a flat motorway draining the battery at a low enough rate that you'd get 300 miles. If you want to go uphill at 80MPH then you will be drawing from both the generator and the batteries until the hill section is over

I can tell this person drives a lot of urban miles. This doesn't suit everyone, and everyone won't get those figures. See also, every other 'MPG' figure for hybrids - it's a flawed statistic.

Most the world is urbanised and is becoming more urban not less

I already find it more convenient, and I still run an ICE too, but what would I know?!! You're also calling EVs more expensive to buy, whilst ignoring that they're cheaper to fuel.

This is just confirmation bias
For the average user visiting a petrol station for 5 mins once every 3-4 weeks is perfectly convenient.


I can only go back to the reality today which is
Toyota $17 billion profit average sale price $24,000
Tesla $0.8 billion loss average sale price is what $50,000?