BEVs deals and information

GreatApe

Tesla last 4Qs close to $0.8 billion loss

General Motors close to $9 billion profit
VW Group close to €14 billion profit
BMW over €7 billion profit
Diamler AG over €7 billion profit
Toyota nearly $17 billion profit
Honda nearly $6 billion profit

ICE are dead , dead I tell you.... The old guard look enviously at Tesla and ask themselves why they couldn't have the foresight to build a 16 year old BEV business which has so far lost over $7 billion selling heavily subsidised BEVs to mostly very wealthy folk


Reality check

Average price of a Toyota $24,000 produced at a profit
Average price of a Tesla ~$50,000 company is loss making even in its most recent 4Qs
Tesla also receive huge subsidies directly and indirectly

The revolution might happen but this clearly shows we are very far from it
The reality is if you want electrified transportation the average price has to come down towards $25,000 and the incentives need to go away because governments can't afford them

Can the Toyota's of the world produce BEVs with 200 mile range for $25,000 at a 7-10% profit? Let's hope the answer is yes because BEVs won't take off until the above is true

GreatApe

GreatApe wrote: »

It's great that they are doing this but it's for PR they wouldn't be installing free electricity for everyone if BEVs existed in mass market size

100TWh free electricity to electrify UK transport would cost £15 billion a year
No one is going to give £15 billion a year away for free apart from maybe the government and then it's only free in the way the NHS is 'free'

Actually that might work
Free government charge points everywhere including most car parks
Charge for free as much as you want anywhere you want
Road tax changes to 15p a mile for EVs but free Electricity
Deploy half a million 7KW chargers and 50,000 100KW fast chargers across the UK that would cover everywhere and enough for everyone until half the stock are BEVs

With chargers literally everywhere and for free then small battery BEVs become far more practical
100 mile BEVs would be fine as you can charge for free on each end

I think this free charging idea is a good idea

Why pay £3,500 bung for a BEV instead for each BEV sold install two public 7KW charger and give each sold BEV a free charging card. Totally free to charge. The life time cost of two public chargers and free lifetime charging for the first owner of a BEV would cost less than the £3,500 sub and it will allow mass deployment of chargers

If half a million BEVs are sold over the next five years this would result in a million 7.2KW public chargers. That's one free 7.2KW charger for every 29 homes you pass. There would literally be multiple chargers on every single street. You'd never be more than 100 meters away from a charger you could even comfortably allow yourself to get down to 2% knowing there are chargers everywhere

A positive of this would be it makes small range BEVs perfectly acceptable
I'd accept a 100 mile range BEV if I knew every street had a charger
Without this mass charging infrastructure I'd want 200 miles range

Martyn1981

1961Nick wrote: »

Retailers could issue voucher codes for free charging on the next visit.

There's no need to worry about cheaper EVs yet because there's plenty of business to be done over £25K. Tesla aren't having any trouble shifting the Model 3 at £32K - £52K. I wouldn't be surprised if the LR & Performance weren't outselling the basic model.

Yes for retailers, in fact they already do at Supermarkets with cheaper petrol, and running promotions by giving out money off deals, something that I'd guess stretches back 20yrs now?

As others point out, free charging is already offered by some, or free for 3kW and 'not excessive' for 7kW, all of which will help to attract custom.

Nothing new, nothing clever, just the same ole same ole.


And yes to Tesla. They've taken the sensible approach of going for profitability first and tackling the BEV rollout from the top down. The TMS and TM3 have established significant leads in the large and mid size luxury markets, whilst the TMX is a sizeable competitor, but the luxury SUV market is far larger, and they are not (I believe) dominating that sector.


Just a guess on UK charging needs, but with BEV's at perhaps 2% of new sales, that would suggest they are displacing around 0.1-0.2% of the car fleet pa, so a rollout of chargers at such a rate each year might seem tiny, but perhaps suitable. If we were to reach 100% BEV sales, say by 2030 (I'd suggest supply, not demand problems by then), then an annual rollout of around 5-7% of ultimate charging needs would still suffice. So any obsession on charging now, seems a bit pointless.

I think Silverwhistle nailed it with the statement: It's going to be a see-saw of demand against supply, and to get the system going there's naturally going to be over-supply and under-supply in particular areas, as the recent survey of local council areas showed.

joefizz

1961Nick wrote: »

Do you honestly think that an increase of $1875 is going to make one iota of a difference to TM3 sales? There's so much low hanging fruit out there that Tesla won't have to worry for at least another 3 years.

None.
People buying them are first adopters/nerds/geeks/virtue signallers, take your pick. Above all the vast majority of them are wealthy or buying them for business or both.

We've already mentioned that when people put deposits down in the UK they were touted as 25k cars, ended up 3 years later at 45k roughly (can you even order the cheapest one, well you can order, whether its delivered or not is a different question).
Yes, theres been some drop off because of that but they were just offered to next on the list.
Its when the list runs out that it becomes interesting and worth watching for the true market.



Over in England this week and I dont normally watch tv so was interested to see the ads for the electric mini coming in march? Not that Im interested in it but I wasnt even aware there was one. I dislike the SUV form factor that everyone seems to be migrating too (US influence) so will be interesting to see how it fares. Would have thought it was a shoe in for driving instructors but dont know how that works with driving tests..

ABrass

They were only touted as 25k cars by idiots who didn't factor in VAT or shipping. 45k is also wrong it starts a hair under 40k, you let yourself down when you just make stuff up.

In cars it's standard to quote the starting list price. Even if it's for Fiestas where the 'style' model is almost never sold because they deliberately drop all the features you want to get a lower starts from headline. I'm even ignoring the SR option because whilst you can buy it it's a token effort.

Some people buy them because they save them a fortune. If you're a high milage driver a model 3 LR is going to save a huge amount in petrol.

silverwhistle

joefizz wrote: »

Its when the list runs out that it becomes interesting and worth watching for the true market.

That's certainly true and will be interesting when competition and lack of supply, particularly of batteries, is not such a big influence.


Let's face it, many of the manufacturers have had to be dragged, kicking and screaming, into making the things. Tesla has been exploiting its lead, and even Nissan and Renault have been a bit half-hearted for fear of sapping their more productive ICE ranges.

ABrass wrote:

Some people buy them because they save them a fortune. If you're a high milage driver a model 3 LR is going to save a huge amount in petrol.

The same actually applies to Leafs: if you go on the EV forums you will find that plenty use even the earlier lower range models for 30 mile commutes and the like. It's the old tool for the job model which the more thoughtless critics of EVs don't seem to acknowledge.

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

Tesla last 4Qs close to $0.8 billion loss

General Motors close to $9 billion profit
VW Group close to €14 billion profit
BMW over €7 billion profit
Diamler AG over €7 billion profit
Toyota nearly $17 billion profit
Honda nearly $6 billion profit

ICE are dead , dead I tell you.... The old guard look enviously at Tesla and ask themselves why they couldn't have the foresight to build a 16 year old BEV business which has so far lost over $7 billion selling heavily subsidised BEVs to mostly very wealthy folk


Reality check

Average price of a Toyota $24,000 produced at a profit
Average price of a Tesla ~$50,000 company is loss making even in its most recent 4Qs
Tesla also receive huge subsidies directly and indirectly

The revolution might happen but this clearly shows we are very far from it
The reality is if you want electrified transportation the average price has to come down towards $25,000 and the incentives need to go away because governments can't afford them

Can the Toyota's of the world produce BEVs with 200 mile range for $25,000 at a 7-10% profit? Let's hope the answer is yes because BEVs won't take off until the above is true

I remember when Jeff Bezos received similar criticism for his business model of putting growth first & foremost. It didn't work out too badly for him did it?

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

They were only touted as 25k cars by idiots who didn't factor in VAT or shipping. 45k is also wrong it starts a hair under 40k, you let yourself down when you just make stuff up.

Thats what my two mates paid, they went for the reasonable option. Hardly making stuff up.
As I said I dont know anyone who paid under 40k. If you do, please share.

GreatApe

silverwhistle wrote: »

That's certainly true and will be interesting when competition and lack of supply, particularly of batteries, is not such a big influence.

Let's face it, many of the manufacturers have had to be dragged, kicking and screaming, into making the things. Tesla has been exploiting its lead, and even Nissan and Renault have been a bit half-hearted for fear of sapping their more productive ICE ranges..

Why would the car manufacturers want to have replicated Tesla?
They have been around for 16 years and have a net income to date of circa negative $7 billion
This is despite recieving massive direct and indirect subsidies for their products by the world's governmenta

If 16 years ago you were the CEO of any ICE company and one of your engineers came to you and said Boss I got an idea in 16 years time we will have a 200-300 mile BEV which we can sell for $50,000 and it's only going to cost the company $7 billion to develop and sell and only if governments maintain heavy subsidies ...... He would have gotten his termination contract and rightly so

Tesla works because rich Americans are willing to fund Tesla to allow it to sell cars at a loss (has never made 4Q of positive net income the last 4Q are negative $800m) Tesla works because governments around the world heavily subsidised BEVs for no good reason. Tesla works because people are willing to pay high prices for a share with a story about the future. None of this is sustainable long term. They have to at least start breaking even on an annual basis and they have to do that as governments pull back and remove EV subsidies

BEVs may be the future But for now they are not competitive
Toyota $17 billion profit selling cars for $24,000
Tesla negative $0.8 billion selling cars for $50,000
This is despite Tesla getting $7,500 tax credits despite BEVs not paying fuel duties despite Tesla getting £4,500 from UK plc despite Tesla getting free perks like ability to use bus lanes and free parking and congestion charge exemption etc

It's a house of cards built on cheap debt & government hand outs
Having said that I take my hat off to the Man. Even if Tesla fails (not likely) it has achieved its goal of accelerating the transition to BEVs by perhaps 10 years. There is also a chance Tesla could become a very profitable company if they can make self drive tech work but that's a big unknown. Will happen at some point but it could be one of 100 competent companies working on it

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

I remember when Jeff Bezos received similar criticism for his business model of putting growth first & foremost. It didn't work out too badly for him did it?

I wonder how many failing businessmen have tried to use that line to their creditors and share holders?

This is a misconception. Amazon Grew revenue while making a profit

Since 2005 Amazon had only two negative years and they were small negatives
Overall Amazon over the last 15 years has been a profit generation machine

Tesla over the last 15 years has lost $7 billion

There is also a big difference between internet services and manufacturing cars
The cost of producing one more copy of Microsoft Windows or Android operating system or streaming one extra copy of an Amazon original movie is close to zero cost. The cost of producing one extra Tesla is about 85% of the sale price

And Amazon is a type of monopoly
Car production is a very very competitive market