BEVs deals and information

JKenH

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/05/milestone-passed-1-10-new-cars-sold-britain-electric/

Britain’s car industry has hit a milestone with one in 10 new cars sold last month either being battery or hybrid electric.

Data from the industry trade body showed that in October 9.9pc of all the 143,251 new cars registered - some 14,231 - were classed as “alternatively fuelled vehicles” (AFVs). This is a new record for the UK and up from 6.9pc a year ago.


The article also added 2000+ charging points need to be built every day from now until 2050. An average of 500 charging stations were installed each month in 2018.

Martyn1981

joefizz wrote: »

Martyn et al.
I can only go on what people who have actually been through the order process have told me about their expected prices and the subsequent price they paid.
Yes there were uk articles that the car could cost as little as 25k gbp but as pointed out that was a straight usd comparison and not covering shipping and VAT (I can ship a car from the us for about a grand and having imported a car myself the total cost plus shipping is subject to VAT).
At time of ordering the estimates for their long range cars were about 32,33k and post brexit this went up. They both ended up paying 45k. If you order the same white car now you will be paying in excess of 47k. If I want a bog standard long range model three in red I wont get any change out of 50k including charger and delivery to NI. Again a long way from the figures pointed out in this thread.


It is very easy to order a tesla online, go order the poverty spec one with no options, it comes in at about 500 quid short of 40k, add in a wall charger and cost of delivery if you dont live near the delivery point and its over 40k. Then have a look at delivery times. The '40k' poverty spec one has estimated delivery times of feb. The poverty spec long range one coming in at around 48k has delivery times of next month.


Thats the actual reality now, anything about 25k, 35k, 38k etc isnt reality, particularly when people use the performance figures for the close to 50k car and say it costs 35k when thats far from reality. The prices went up last month for anyone not in the initial batch as well.
It really is disingenuous of people (I dont know anyone on this thread but certainly blogs and opinion pieces have been referenced here) to use poverty spec prices of cars which people dont order, for which there are longer waiting times (funny that, the least profitable cars have to be made to order, again no real surprise) in conjunction with higher spec performance figures. Whilst it may not be deliberate it is misleading and not real world.


Yes you can buy a tesla 3 for less than 40k if you install the charger yourself, but would you want that one and be prepared to wait for it?
Howmanyleft has 62 SRs compared to 38 LR to 73 performance so more performance than SRs.
Will be interesting to see how that goes going forward.

Nothing you say here explains or justifies your earlier claim:

joefizz wrote: »

We've already mentioned that when people put deposits down in the UK they were touted as 25k cars, ended up 3 years later at 45k

The 'real' UK prices were suggested as being from £35K for the base model, so £38k for the SR+ seems almost spot on.

The UK car was never touted at £25k, so your claim suggesting the price went from £25k to £45k is at the least wholly misleading, but bordering on entirely false.


BTW, it's a very long time since I was looking into US imports, but I seem to remember an additional cost suggesting your import figures are not complete, though I may of course now be out of date.

You'd have to pay (a) the car price, then (b) the shipping, then (c) import duty on a + b, then VAT on a+ b + c.

Using your import figure and an exchange rate of £1:$1.3 that gives us:

$35,000 + shipping $1,300
$36,300 @ 10% import tax
$39,930 @ 20% VAT
$47,916 @ $1.3:£1
£36,858

Note this is of course based on higher production number LHD US prices.

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

The article also added 2000+ charging points need to be built every day from now until 2050. An average of 500 charging stations were installed each month in 2018.

Why do we need ~22m charging points? Do we need one each?

JKenH

Some interesting statistics for Norway - October 2019 sales

Audi e-tron - 873
Volkswagen e-Golf - N/A (748 total with ICE)
Nissan LEAF - 518
BMW i3 - 317
Jaguar I-PACE - 175
Tesla Model 3 - 121
Hyundai Kona Electric - N/A (124 total with ICE)
Renault ZOE - 93
Tesla Model X - 29
Tesla Model S - 18

And one bearish view on why Tesla sales are down

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298013-teslas-model-3-sales-fall-97-percent-norway-october-march-peak

JKenH

The Likely Impact Of EU Emission Regulations On Tesla's European Sales

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4297181-likely-impact-eu-emission-regulations-teslas-european-sales

An analysis of the EV scene looking at emissions regulations and the impact on EV pricing. I should point out this is a bearish opinion on Tesla’s future. I am sure others will be able to provide more bullish views.


Without a “pooling partner” Tesla will be competing against other manufacturers who are incentivized to “low-ball” the prices of BEVs for compliance, but there will be no financial reward for Tesla to sell BEVs. I don’t see any possibility of Tesla being able to compete in the middle or low-end price range of the European market with that kind of disadvantage.

ABrass

Tesla have had a pairing partner sorted for months now. Fiat Chrysler. I knew seeking alpha has a bad name but that's just awful reporting.

ABrass

Then have a look at delivery times. The '40k' poverty spec one has estimated delivery times of feb. The poverty spec long range one coming in at around 48k has delivery times of next month.

Could it be that it takes about a month to build a car to order and ship it over and that they prioritise the more profitable versions over the entry level ones? Thus showing there's currently at last three months of capacity currently backed up?

That will indeed be interesting to follow given the incoming demand flood from company car drivers and the potential supply increase as the China factory starts helping the supply restriction.

Edit: Tesla make most if not all cars to order for the UK market. That's how they roll. That there are different delivery times and waiting times for different models don't mean they don't exist. In fact it implies that the SR battery, and really, what is it with the poverty spec rubbish, is clearly the more popular by miles.

Edit 2: Also that little fact shows up the flaws in the other seeking alpha post. They claim that the pent up demand for the UK ran out in Q3. Either that means we're in steady state mode for the UK (where enough people are out off waiting 4 months for a car to choose something else) or there was even more pent up demand than they thought. Either way a badly researched article

Martyn1981

ABrass wrote: »

Tesla have had a pairing partner sorted for months now. Fiat Chrysler. I knew seeking alpha has a bad name but that's just awful reporting.

Yep, been all over the news for about a year I think?

But ..... since that article came out FCA have announced a merger with PSA, presumably because they can see the writing is on the wall for ICEV's, and need to consolidate resources for BEV investment and ramp up, so that might have an impact on the FCA/Tesla deal?

BTW, delivery times in the US have grown, apparently due to the number of TM3's being exported, but as the shorts will tell you, Tesla can't build enough cars, I mean there isn't enough demand, I mean there won't be enough demand next quarter ......... I mean next quarter ........ no next quarter .......

In reality it seems like we have a Field of Dreams scenario - if you build them, they will come.

Martyn1981

JKenH wrote: »

The article also added 2000+ charging points need to be built every day from now until 2050. An average of 500 charging stations were installed each month in 2018.

Follow up to why we need 22m charging points, I thought I'd ponder a more realistic number.

So, assuming TAAS doesn't take 80% of the vehicles off the road, just eliminates lots of second cars, then a reduction from 30m down to 20m seems safe (probably far too high, but safe).

Then half charge at home, so down to 10m.

Then assuming all chargers only operate at 22kW (of course they will be higher, but working to worst case), then average annual driving would require 2hrs of charging per week, or 2/168th's, 1/84th of the charger, so at 100% use that would require 10m/84 = 119,048 chargers.

119k /(30yrs * 12 months) = 331 chargers per month need to be installed.

Given the article says 500 charging stations were installed per month in 2018, and assuming each station only has one charging point, then that suggests a 34% overbuild, balancing out the 100% use assumption.

Also, since there are already BEV's and chargers that can operate at 10x the rate I've chosen, then moving forward we will probably need far less chargers than this.

ABrass

There are around 8,422 petrol stations in the UK. If they have an average of 12 pumps each and it takes 45 minutes to charge your car (compared to 5 minutes to fuel) then you'd need 910,000 fast chargers to fully replace the petrol infrastructure. Ignoring charging at home, work, shops etc.

Assuming that 90% of charging is done at slower chargers, eg supermarkets or home, that brings us back to where we were to start with and just replacing pumps at petrol stations with chargers will cover everyone.

But I'm betting the Telegraph numbers include home charging points.