BEVs deals and information

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

I wonder how many failing businessmen have tried to use that line to their creditors and share holders?

This is a misconception. Amazon Grew revenue while making a profit

Since 2005 Amazon had only two negative years and they were small negatives
Overall Amazon over the last 15 years has been a profit generation machine

Tesla over the last 15 years has lost $7 billion

There is also a big difference between internet services and manufacturing cars
The cost of producing one more copy of Microsoft Windows or Android operating system or streaming one extra copy of an Amazon original movie is close to zero cost. The cost of producing one extra Tesla is about 85% of the sale price

And Amazon is a type of monopoly
Car production is a very very competitive market

"Amazon grew while not making a loss" would be a better description. The Amazon business model repeatedly scared investors to death & resulted in a lot of negative press. There was talk that 'Prime' could be Amazon's downfall - delivering something that costs £1 for free ... are you mad!!

I hardly think you can lump EM into a group with "failing businessmen". You can probably count his peers on one hand!

almillar

The bad news is that they would probably charge 15p a unit for the electricity in which case why not charge at home at 15p or at night at 5p

You're all going round accidentally solving problems!

'What about people that can't charge at home?!'

'Who's going to use these chargers if they have to pay for them?!'

THE SAME PEOPLE!

Tesla should produce a hybrid plug in model 3

I don't think you understand Tesla. And where does the engine go in this ground-up EV? Do you expect them to develop an ICE? or buy one in? Why not buy an Ioniq? You can choose hybrid, plug in hybrid, or full EV.

Retailers could issue voucher codes for free charging on the next visit.

IKEA already give you money back on your shopping if you have charged your EV (in Belfast at least).

If this was a good idea why not issue a token for a free litre or two of petrol?

Again, if you want to step outside for a while, you might see supermarkets giving out '10p off per litre when you spend £60' vouchers.

Actually that might work
Free government charge points everywhere including most car parks
I think this free charging idea is a good idea

We've sort of got this in NI, but the charge points are (100 odd?) 2x22kW, not 7kW, which is great for Zoes.

EricMears

almillar wrote: »

IKEA already give you money back on your shopping if you have charged your EV (in Belfast at least).

Not sure about Ulster but in the rest of UK the £6 refund for BEV chargers was withdrawn a month or two ago.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

"Amazon grew while not making a loss" would be a better description. The Amazon business model repeatedly scared investors to death & resulted in a lot of negative press. There was talk that 'Prime' could be Amazon's downfall - delivering something that costs £1 for free ... are you mad!!

No Amazon Grew while making a profit
I think you are mistaken what was being said people were saying Amazon share price was not justified that it's price to earnings ratio was too high. No one was saying Amazon wasn't a sustainable business because as you can see below they have been quite profitable for a very long times

Year : $Annual Net Income $millions
2019. About the same as 2018
2018 $10,073
2017 $3,033
2016 $2,371
2015 $596
2014 $-241
2013 $274
2012 $-39
2011 $631
2010 $1,152
2009 $902
2008 $645
2007 $476
2006 $190
2005 $359

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

No Amazon Grew while making a profit
I think you are mistaken what was being said people were saying Amazon share price was not justified that it's price to earnings ratio was too high. No one was saying Amazon wasn't a sustainable business because as you can see below they have been quite profitable for a very long times

Year : $Annual Net Income $millions
2019. About the same as 2018
2018 $10,073
2017 $3,033
2016 $2,371
2015 $596
2014 $-241
2013 $274
2012 $-39
2011 $631
2010 $1,152
2009 $902
2008 $645
2007 $476
2006 $190
2005 $359

Amazon's PER has always been extremely high because of the ongoing re-investment.

Until 2016 Amazon were doing just enough to keep the P&L in the black & it's clear to see that the figures have been 'massaged' to that effect - accounting is not a precise instrument!

Your big numbers above are quite small in relation to the market cap.

GreatApe

almillar wrote: »

I don't think you understand Tesla. And where does the engine go in this ground-up EV? Do you expect them to develop an ICE? or buy one in? Why not buy an Ioniq? You can choose hybrid, plug in hybrid, or full EV.

They can buy a generator from one of many suppliers
Only need 15KW generator and 5 gallon tank of fuel (About 20kg) to sustain 80MPH for 320 miles which is more or less indefinitely
By comparison that's an engine about 1/4th the size and power of what's in the mini Hyundai i10

Bear in mind this generator would only be used very infrequently
If I had an 80 mile plug in hybrid I think only two trip over the last 2 years would have used the generator. One was a 240 mile trip the other was 110 miles. So for just 190 miles of about 18,000 miles would have been petrol. That's 99% electric 1% petrol. The generator would only have been on 4 hours over two years....it will outlast the car

What is the advantage of such a system
Well you only need 20KWh of batteries for 300+ range vehicle rather than 75KWh of batteries
The mass of the car would be about 20% less so the electric motor and power electronics would cost 20% less. The battery pack 73% less. The wheels will wear away 20% less. And you'd get about 2% better range per kWh of battery due to lower mass.

I doubt Tesla will make such a plug in Hybrid
But everyone else should


Think of it this way
Let's say Tesla had designed the model 3 to be a 80 mile range plug in hybrid with 300 mile range extender. If someone proposed making a 310 mile range versions that would cost $15,000 extra and have a mass of some 300kg heavier. Would you say that made sense to go from 99% miles electric to 100% miles Electric?

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

They can buy a generator from one of many suppliers
Only need 15KW generator and 5 gallon tank of fuel (About 20kg) to sustain 80MPH for 320 miles which is more or less indefinitely
By comparison that's an engine about 1/4th the size and power of what's in the mini Hyundai i10

Bear in mind this generator would only be used very infrequently
If I had an 80 mile plug in hybrid I think only two trip over the last 2 years would have used the generator. One was a 240 mile trip the other was 110 miles. So for just 190 miles of about 18,000 miles would have been petrol. That's 99% electric 1% petrol. The generator would only have been on 4 hours over two years....it will outlast the car

What is the advantage of such a system
Well you only need 20KWh of batteries for 300+ range vehicle rather than 75KWh of batteries
The mass of the car would be about 20% less so the electric motor and power electronics would cost 20% less. The battery pack 73% less. The wheels will wear away 20% less. And you'd get about 2% better range per kWh of battery due to lower mass.

I doubt Tesla will make such a plug in Hybrid
But everyone else should


Think of it this way
Let's say Tesla had designed the model 3 to be a 80 mile range plug in hybrid with 300 mile range extender. If someone proposed making a 310 mile range versions that would cost $15,000 extra and have a mass of some 300kg heavier. Would you say that made sense to go from 99% miles electric to 100% miles Electric?

15kWh is only 20bhp ... which probably drops below 15bhp at the wheels. I hope your 1.5 tonne hybrid doesn't encounter any hills with a depleted battery!

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

Amazon's PER has always been extremely high because of the ongoing re-investment.

Until 2016 Amazon were doing just enough to keep the P&L in the black & it's clear to see that the figures have been 'massaged' to that effect - accounting is not a precise instrument!

Your big numbers above are quite small in relation to the market cap.

Yes Amazon's share price is still crazy at some 80 X earnings
But no one is questioning if Amazon is profitable because it has consistently been profitable in all but two of the last 15 years and the loss years were small. You are mixing up critics of share price Vs if the business is profitable or not

Amazon is profitable it's shares may be over valued at 80xP/E but it's a profitable sustainable business.

Tesla on the other hand has consistently lost money
2019. With one quarter left to report they are on negative $900m or so
2018 $-976m
2017 $-1,961m
2016 $-675m
2015 $-889m
2014 $-294m
2013 $-74m
2012 $-396m
2011 $-254m
2010 $-154m
2009 $-56m
2008 $-83m

Tesla only functions by burning cash
Can it become profitable at some point?
I think so it can probably grow to BMW size since it has Government backing via heavy subsidies
Producing perhaps 2.5 million BEVs annually in 6-10 years time
I'd expect more cash calls to get to that stage
And once there it can expect to trade at 10x earnings
Software for self drive is the big unknown bonus where Tesla night succeed but then again it might be beaten to full self drive by another company so it's not guaranteed and if might take a decade to get to self drive

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

15kWh is only 20bhp ... which probably drops below 15bhp at the wheels. I hope your 1.5 tonne hybrid doesn't encounter any hills with a depleted battery!

It takes a lot of power to accelerate rapidly not so much power to sustain motorway speeds or go up a hill for a minute or two

The 20HP generator would be sufficient to sustain 80MPH on the motorway for 300 miles

And the plug in Hybrid wouldn't allow batteries to go to 0% it would stop using the batteries at 5% and use that final 5% to buffer for power for acceleration etc

Also remember this generator will be on for about 1% of your annual mileage the rest is pure electric.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

15kWh is only 20bhp ... which probably drops below 15bhp at the wheels. I hope your 1.5 tonne hybrid doesn't encounter any hills with a depleted battery!

I don't imagine that they would use this generator with its AC electricity being converted to DC to charge the batteries and then the batteries discharge and converted to AC to drive the induction motor. you are more likely to directly use the AC output from the generator to drive the electric motor of the car so the process could be as much as 98% efficient