BEVs deals and information

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

For a SR model 3 with aprox 55kwh battery at $150 a kWh. That makes up $8000 odd in costs for just the battery. If you drop that cost by 10% that either means $800 more profit or lower price.

As the EV market is so supply constrained there isn't much incentive to drop prices. However the improved margins will drive more production which in turn drives down costs and eventually you should see some actual competition on price.

Model 3 prices going up in two months time by $1875 as the tax credit runs out in their biggest market USA

Doesn't mean Tesla is doomed but it just shows you any savings made will likely be used by countries to cut back on heavy support

How many people here would be interested in a BEV if BEVs were taxed say 10p a mile to make up for the lost fuel taxes? How many people would buy an e golf if it cost another £3.5k if the government removed the grant. How many people would buy an EV if the wall chargers were £800 rather than £300? The answer isn't zero but it is less perhaps a lot less

ABrass

Who is to say (again not wanting to single out any manufacturer here) that the 60kwH version of a car isnt the 90kwh version that failed qc for kwh delivered but ok software limited. Yes its a lower nominal and meets the spec but it cost just as much to put batteries in it as it did the 90kwh version (and more than 90kwh).

Well, no. Because in your hypothetical those battery packs had failed QA and thus were waste, so they were either free or a saving as you don't need to dispose of them. It's worth pointing out that the paranoia around battery lifespan has been overblown. The leaf is possibly the only bad example and no one else seems to be making their mistakes.

You're in danger of not being able to see the wood for the trees. The statistics are there to help you do that.

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

Well, no. Because in your hypothetical those battery packs had failed QA and thus were waste


The statistics are there to help you do that.

What if that waste was close to 30% of the production run.... a lot of waste... and still costs the same to produce...


I remember once working with rebadged kit that was almost 70% of the initial production run. Yes, would otherwise would have been classed as 'waste'....


edit: wasnt talking about battery lifespan but problems in the manufacturing process and testing failures that failed to meet published specs but would hold ground with lower specs...

ABrass

Thats common in many industries, 'binning' components into batches depending on performance or quality. We're way off in the weeds here.

I think we can agree that the price of EVs is closely tired to the cost of the battery as it makes up a large fraction of the cars cost.

I'd like to say we agree that battery prices are likely to drop in the next few years. It is the consensus of all systematic analysis from both industry and government and would be a continuation of a well understood trend both historically and at a theoretical level. But you may disagree.

I'd really like to say that based on those last two points we should expect the cost of EVs (not necessarily a particular model but new models at a lower price point) to fall. But given you think you know better on the second point i suspect you won't.

Martyn1981

joefizz wrote: »

Martyn, you must have missed my earlier posts where I linked to the info given out at the time they opened uk deposits...
You could just ask anyone who put their deposit down when they first opened to uk purchasers what they were told...






Im sure if you bought a Tesla US car and imported it personally to the UK then your rationale would work. However, they had always planned to sell cars directly in the UK with uk retail pricing. Sort of save you the bother to fly to america, buy one, get it to baltimore, put it on a ship, file customs documents,get it shipped ro-ro, pay HMRC and get it released to you in Southampton...
Just order it online, pay in pounds and pick it up at the dealers, plus its right hand drive.
Pay your grand deposit in 2016, pay the extra 30 odd k when you pick it up in 2018... no real need to pay import taxes etc because it will be partially assembled in holland,like the model S...

ohh wait...


Of course thats not to say that all of the above wont happen next year once the initial delivery phase is done. By all means get the cars made and shipped from the US to meet the long lead times people have already experienced and to get the good news coming in, but its not exactly green or ethical to have them shipped across the planet (no matter how little it costs). Purely from a cost reduction point of view that would make more sense, particularly as earlier models sales are dropping in favour of the model 3.
They need to really get a grip on the dealers, no dealers, dealers thing as well.



Im generally interested in why people think EVs will get cheaper, although once anyone uses the word 'assume' or 'assuming' I'll stop reading ;-)

But as we discussed at the time, those links were US cars, and US prices, just stated in £'s. They were not UK prices.

I don't recall anyone actually saying they would be £25k in the UK, the figures/estimates I saw were for ~£35k. In fact the deposit (on launch) was $1k in the US and £1k in the UK.

No UK prices were announced until the orders could be placed, or refundable deposits converted into orders.

Regarding import,I was simply showing that in your example you'd forgotten the UK import tax for cars coming from the US, which when included, seems again to confirm the expected and widely published figure of roughly a $1 to £1 conversion.

Martyn1981

ABrass wrote: »

But I'm betting the Telegraph numbers include home charging points.

That was my guess too, along with the fact that they mix terms, such as 2000 charging points per day, and 500 charging stations per week, where a charging station could have multiple charging points.

If the 22m target does include home chargers, then they should say something like '500 charging stations per week', plus the existing 10m locations that already exist.


Also, and I'm replying to you as I simply can't make sense of Joe's posts, yet again, but as you say the cost of BEV's including batteries keeps falling. A good example is the CAPEX cost of the US TM3, v's the Chinese factory, which is around 50% lower now thanks to lessons learned. Elon has said that the US TMY CAPEX for a 1m pa production will be similar to, or less than that for the 0.5m pa TM3 line(s), and that the TMY will have around 90% less wiring than the TM3.

If Tesla are able to switch to dry electrode production of batteries, then I think the space saving was expected to be enormous, possibly 16x as much battery production from the same factory area.

Plus, the 'turd in the punchbowl' for ICE cars is that the Tesla's are already roughly price competitive against their segment competition, before considering lower TCO.

gzoom

GreatApe wrote: »

A thread for deals on BEVs

This seems very tempting £5,631 for two years brand new EV
No road tax £300
No MOT £100
No congestion charge. £xyz
Around £2,350 fuel savings over the two years
Around £250 electric cost
Overall cost of ownership would be circa £5631 - £2,000 fuel - £300 road tax -£100 MOT +£250 electric so about £3,500 or 22p per mile for the capital cost which is very competitive

Also being a new car has no maintenance or breakdown costs so even lower cost Vs keeping your old car

Also the range may be only 180 miles but since it's a lease feel free to charge to 100% often as you don't need to worry about battery life rather than the more recommend 80% (although I'd say don't be an !!! treat the car well so the next owner has a good experience too)

5p night time charging

https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/hyundai-ioniq-electric-100kw-premium-38kwh-24m-lease-8k-miles-pa-1114-initial-189pm-160-admin-5631-at-leasing-options-3303000

Seems a good deal if in the market for a replacement car

Can buy via a company to save VAT and delivery around Jan so will benefit most its life from 0-1% BIK

Tempting......

I love how every EV post ends up with the same pointless play ground arguments about Tesla


Anyways incase the OP is still interested in real life EV ownership with cheap deals.


My original Nissan Leaf deal was:


£200/month for 24months, no deposit, 14K miles deal.
£0 road tax
£90 1 service in 24months before handing back.
Fuel cost was 1.5p per mile using E7.

So £5,100 to run a brand new car for 2 years and 14k, or about 36p per mile, which for a brand new decent sized family hatchback is pretty good value for money.

gzoom

joefizz wrote: »

Can someone please explain to me in simple terms how renting a brand new car for 2 years is a) green b) ethical c) moneysaving.

Not judgmental at all

We all have our vices in life, some people like having affairs, others drinking, others holidays, my personal one is cars.

EVs for me atleast gives me the option to enjoy my vice, but with atleast a little bit more restraint. Having now looked into how much energy it takes to move a car, as EVs are so sensitive to range, I can see how much of a waste burning hydrocarbons for personal is - something which I use to enjoy, and practice a lot.

Amazingly since getting into EVs I've also found the constant need to change cars - which is almost a pre-requisite for any true petrolhead going away.

Nothing anyone can say would stop me from enjoying fast, nice cars, yes its pointless, yes its not moneysaving, and 100% not green, but that is what western society allows people to do, everyone enjoy what they want.

So here is our over sized, over priced, SUV - which will never go off road ever, running on crazy 22inch wheels, made by a company which many think should have gone bankrupt by now. The thing I love most about it is the fact it's an EV, and I 100% recommend anyone whos never driven/tried/sat in an EV to do so.

Plenty people will disagree with my views, that's fine, but till there is a law passed to ban me from driving my car I really couldn't careless what other people think. For me our current EV is the best car I have ever owned, and worth every single penny .

joefizz

gzoom wrote: »

For me our current EV is the best car I have ever owned, and worth every single penny .

Not disagreeing with you on that one, have seen it in real life a few times, the party mode is a here take my money moment.


Your post does sum it up though, its a thing, its not the saviour of the planet, its being touted as short term pain for long term gain, which may be the case eventually (ignoring human nature and historical record) but its certainly not green, ethical or moneysaving right now... (sort of the point of the forum)



If people were more honest about it, like you, its a nice thing to have and even nicer to play around with and stop the pretence of it saving the planet then we will probably all get along a bit more here ;-)


As for being judgmental, well I have 3 cars, a speedboat and have travelled from arctic to the antarctic, sahara to the brazil rainforest and most places in between. I wouldnt tout that as green, ethical or moneysaving either ;-)

almillar

Whilst a kWh is a stated unit of measurement, the costs per kwh, is that nominal or delivered?

The cost you pay, in your house, per kWh is whatever the charger uses (takes in). You will receive slightly less than that in your car. That's just non 100% efficiency. Rapid chargers will be more efficient, in general. Where's the lie?

How much nominal KWh does it take each manufacturer to deliver their measured kWh

You're way off here. Nissan sold their Leaf as 24kWh. The battery inside was.. 24kWh. AFAIK, this is the exception to the rule, and most manufacturers will be advertising the car with a slightly smaller capacity than is actually fitted. For example, I bought a 22kWh Renault Zoe. When I bought it I plugged in an OBD2 dongle and was told that my battery was at 105% capacity - because it's actually a bigger pack, with a reserve at the top and bottom, and it allows for a bit of degredation. All in the BMS (Battery Management System) and all managed differently. There are no lies!

What if their batteries (or any manufacturer, not singling out tesla) are crap and only deliver a percentage of the nominal power before heating/degrading etc etc. Who knows, they will never tell, they only care about rated power.

Er, perhaps hundreds of thousands of miles of driving the cars will tell us. Oh, whaddaya know, the batteries are just fine!

Temperature is certainly a factor, but with companies offering 8 year warranties on the batteries, they don't want them back, so IMO they'll make them reliable.

Who is to say (again not wanting to single out any manufacturer here) that the 60kwH version of a car isnt the 90kwh version that failed qc for kwh delivered but ok software limited. Yes its a lower nominal and meets the spec but it cost just as much to put batteries in it as it did the 90kwh version (and more than 90kwh).

Would you have a problem with that? Should they throw the lower quality batteries (which are worth, less) away, or should they use them and get some money back. If they don't do that, the price of the expensive ones goes up even more.

At least with eneloops it only took about a year to work out why ;-)

So again, you've got 8 or whatever years to find out, and they'll have to replace it for you. Do you have any actual evidence of any of this or is it all hypothetical?