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1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

I think it's unlikely that a battery powertrain can ever be cheaper than an ICE powertrain when everything is said and done it's 400kg of expensive materials batteries Vs 100kg of mostly cheap steel for an ICE

Tesla seem to be very adept at matching the current cost of batteries to their target market sector. As battery prices fall Tesla are becoming more & more mainstream. It's worked pretty well because it's enabled them to build a premium brand almost by accident.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

Tesla seem to be very adept at matching the current cost of batteries to their target market sector. As battery prices fall Tesla are becoming more & more mainstream. It's worked pretty well because it's enabled them to build a premium brand almost by accident.

Tesla did this right the only way to sell BEVs was to target a high price and try to build performance cars. They did have a lot of help along the way. $7,500 per car tax credits. Zero emmissions credits and of course a huge liquid American capital market willing to take billions in negative cashflow for over a decade in the hope that in the future it will pay off

But the premium market is perhaps 15% of cars.
For the other 85% of the market prices have to be far more competitive

ABrass

Since I can see it in the quotes I might as well reapond even though I've got them on ignore...

I think it's unlikely that a battery powertrain can ever be cheaper than an ICE powertrain when everything is said and done it's 400kg of expensive materials batteries Vs 100kg of mostly cheap steel for an ICE

Then you're wrong. The component parts of a battery are a small fraction of the costs, it's the manufacture that costs money. The same is generally true of an ICE system. Where the expensive parts of catalytic converters are dwarfed by the manufacturing costs.

The main differences are in complexity where the ICE powertrain is at a huge handicap. Switching to EVs allows a lot of labour cuts as they are simpler to make. That translates to cheaper.

More to the point, everyone, literally everyone, thinks you're wrong. Battery prices are falling and will continue to do so.

ABrass

JKenH wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/advice/10-best-electric-cars-range-miles-better/

No surprise Tesla take the top 3 slots on vehicle range.

What I hadn't really realised was that Tesla model S can hit 370 miles per charge. It's been creeping up over time and thats likely to continue. That's getting close to what a tank of petrol delivers.

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

Since I can see it in the quotes I might as well reapond even though I've got them on ignore...

Then you're wrong. The component parts of a battery are a small fraction of the costs, it's the manufacture that costs money. The same is generally true of an ICE system. Where the expensive parts of catalytic converters are dwarfed by the manufacturing costs.

The main differences are in complexity where the ICE powertrain is at a huge handicap. Switching to EVs allows a lot of labour cuts as they are simpler to make. That translates to cheaper.

More to the point, everyone, literally everyone, thinks you're wrong. Battery prices are falling and will continue to do so.

Who is this everybody that thinks a battery powertrain can be made cheaper than an ICE powertrain? People think battery tech will get cheaper. I agree but this doesn't mean battery powertrain will get cheaper than ICE powertrain

As I've already pointed out you can buy a whole new ICE car for £6,520+VAT and said car has A 450 mile range

ICE powertrain probably have a cost not much above £1,000
By comparison a BEV powertrain
50KWh of battery cells To give 220 mile range
The battery pack to hold it together
The power electronics
The electric motor
The stronger heavier frame to hold all that extra weight

There is no way all that is going to cost below £1,000

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

What I hadn't really realised was that Tesla model S can hit 370 miles per charge. It's been creeping up over time and thats likely to continue. That's getting close to what a tank of petrol delivers.

More range isn't key for mass market sales. 200+ miles is sufficient it's cost that needs to fall rather than range increase

The best selling car in the UK is the fiesta

It's not the fastest car, it's not the most comfortable, it's not the safest, it's not the best handling, it doesn't have the best technology. It's the best selling car because for most people they want a reliable affordable car to get them from a to b at acceptable levels of speed acceleration and comfort at an affordable price of £14k. All that combined makes it the best selling car in the UK

GreatApe

As battery prices fall Tesla are becoming more & more mainstream. It's worked pretty well because it's enabled them to build a premium brand almost by accident.

I think their aim was always a premium brand

Also it's not just battery prices it's
Battery cells
Battery packs (the structure to hold it all together)
Power electronics
Electric motor

All of those will get cheaper but Elon is perfectly aware a battery car can never compete purely on price with a ICE because it's literally 400kg of expensive materials (copper aluminium cobalt lithium and more) Vs 100kg of mostly cheap steel.

Hence why he needs self drive software
Expensive BEVs are very cheap per mile if software can allow utilisation to increase from 150,000 miles in private ownership to 1 million miles as a fleet taxi

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

More range isn't key for mass market sales. 200+ miles is sufficient it's cost that needs to fall rather than range increase

The best selling car in the UK is the fiesta

It's not the fastest car, it's not the most comfortable, it's not the safest, it's not the best handling, it doesn't have the best technology. It's the best selling car because for most people they want a reliable affordable car to get them from a to b at acceptable levels of speed acceleration and comfort at an affordable price of £14k. All that combined makes it the best selling car in the UK

I know this isn’t a car forum, but someone has to stick up for the Fiesta! I suggest you go & try a Fiesta ST & then try & tell me it’s not quick, comfortable, & handles better than most sports cars. If you want to get from A to B quickly, you’d be struggling to find a better and more enjoyable ride than the fiesta ST.

Hexane

ABrass wrote: »

What I hadn't really realised was that Tesla model S can hit 370 miles per charge. It's been creeping up over time and thats likely to continue. That's getting close to what a tank of petrol delivers.

A close friend of mine owns a recent Golf GTI, which I believe has similar quality and performance to a Tesla S, or perhaps even inferior, and he struggles to get 300 miles from one tank of petrol... so the S is way ahead in range.

Martyn1981

ABrass wrote: »

What I hadn't really realised was that Tesla model S can hit 370 miles per charge. It's been creeping up over time and thats likely to continue. That's getting close to what a tank of petrol delivers.

There have been some recent over the air updates to improve range on the Tesla cars, and also some efficiency improvements in the motors to add range (about 10 miles I believe). So as 'they' see how the cars perform, and the batteries degrade, revisions are possible.

But more important than range I think, is charging. It's easy to point to the scale of the US v's a BEV range, but perhaps mostly pointless too, given that humans also have range issues, be it bladder, belly, or stiff legs.

The latest Tesla supercharger upgrade will allow charging rates of up to 1,000miles per hour for the TM3 (the S & X batts can't charge at that highest speed) so a 10 min stop, aimed at the lower end of the battery, could add around 2.5hrs of highway driving. I really don't see how an ICE could do any better without going to the extreme of swoping drivers and no stops other than fuel.