BEVs deals and information

joefizz

Hexane wrote: »

Yes that is correct, Chinese people will be manufacturing the Tesla; China is where Tesla's second factory is now starting production.

Thanks for the A8 reference, Ive planned to go back to Munich for years now, will check it out when I do. For a while in certain places in europe every taxi seemed to be a version of the skoda octavia, in the big cities Ive been to in N and S america its primarily prius/hybrids that Ive seen (although NYC adopted a non-hybrid but when I was there 2 years ago it was still primarily hybrids). I remember when the prius first came out it was the virtue signalling brand, now its a taxi brand. Surprised toyota havent done more in EV but they are backing hydrogen, maybe thats the future for city taxis, hydrogen?
It makes sense for car nav systems companies to get taxi drivers on board although it might be like turkeys voting for christmas!



The China Tesla thing is one of the biggest reasons why I say if they can make it through next year. etc. Right now all they have done is show the Chinese government how to build an EV car factory from scratch to beta production in less than a year. Which means if they havent started building already the land wind equivalent model 3s they can do so in a year from now.

joefizz

GreatApe wrote: »

I'd prefer the plug in hybrid
For 98% of users it's probably lifetime less CO2 intensive because not producing 300kg of heavy expensive batteries is a lot of energy savings probably more so than the 200kg of fuel such a car might burn in a 15 year life

Right now, if all my cars died and I had to buy one to replace them, then plug in hybrid it would be. Battery charged by solar for all the short runs march-october, petrol for the winter and long runs outside of stopping at places that had top up/charging stations.
Id need a trailer as well at the minute. The outlander hybrid has real world battery reports as low as 20 miles I think. As you say 50 miles is the sweet spot.
Im keeping an eye out for the alfa Tonale and the Guilia phev which are supposed to be coming up in the next year or so, although by that stage I might be in old man territory and go for a volvo!

Martyn1981

joefizz wrote: »

I remember when the model 3 was confirmed at 25k GBP within 3 years back in 2014. I guess they must not have worked hard enough at that one. Maybe they will with the 25k usd one as 2021 is now only about 14 months away, it should be well along development by now...

Are you sure? Can you provide some links, citations please?

Edit - Perhaps you meant the SR model in the US at £25k, not the UK? Which it sorta did $35k / £25k, had the exchange rate still been $1.4:£1 BB (before Brexit). But note US prices are quoted before sales tax, as it varies from state to state, whereas UK prices include VAT.

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Are you sure? Can you provide some links, citations please?

Edit - Perhaps you meant the SR model in the US at £25k, not the UK? Which it sorta did $35k / £25k, had the exchange rate still been $1.4:£1 BB (before Brexit). But note US prices are quoted before sales tax, as it varies from state to state, whereas UK prices include VAT.

Back in 2014 the pound was around $1.65 rather than flirting with $1.20 as it is today. Wasn't the plug in grant also £1000 higher?

Factor the above into today's list price & you get 27,000GBP.

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

Right now, if all my cars died and I had to buy one to replace them, then plug in hybrid it would be. Battery charged by solar for all the short runs march-october, petrol for the winter and long runs outside of stopping at places that had top up/charging stations.
Id need a trailer as well at the minute. The outlander hybrid has real world battery reports as low as 20 miles I think. As you say 50 miles is the sweet spot.
Im keeping an eye out for the alfa Tonale and the Guilia phev which are supposed to be coming up in the next year or so, although by that stage I might be in old man territory and go for a volvo!

There have been a few 50 mile range plug ins but they didn't sell well probably because people don't understand them and also servicing was expensive due to limited numbers of garages and mechanics willing to work on them so high prices. However the owners were generally happy with them some were able to go months without filling up

Again the problem (or reality depending on how you look at it) is a $10k price difference Vs petrol is too high. n the USA a gallon of petrol is just $2.50 so that's 4,000 gallons or 150,000+ miles to break even which isn't worth it

It's something like This at the moment
$20,000 petrol car
$30,000 mid range plug in hybrid
$40,000 BEV

Hopefully in the future it might be closer to $20,000 petrol, +$4,000 hybrid, +$10,000 BEV
This way the break even of the plug in hybrid would be around 50,000 miles and the BEV around 125,000 miles just about acceptable for the the plug in Hybrid

A plug in hybrid or a full BEV really needs to cost no more than $4,000 over its petrol twin
This way the first owner can drive 50,000 miles and just about break even

joefizz

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Are you sure? Can you provide some links, citations please?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/news/tesla-model-3-launch-elon-musk-unveils-new-25000-electric-car/
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-3518774/Tesla-unveils-cheapest-electric-car-25k-Model-3-215-mile-range.html


2016 - pre brexit as Nick points out, must have been about the time my mate put his deposit down. 3 year wait, even Alfa arent that slow ;-)



Heres the 2014 link
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tesla/model-s/87332/tesla-plans-uk-rd-base-charging-network-and-25k-3-series-rival
2015
https://cleantechnica.com/2015/10/29/tesla-model-3-price-will-be-25000/


Maybe this time next year....

almillar

joefizz

No ;-)
Lets stick with build quality, its !!!!! for a 45k car ;-) It really is that simple

I was asking Great Ape not to compare the Tesla to Corolla - it's not in the same class. So yes, compare build quality to the 3 series etc. I don't really think I've commented on build quality, I've only sat in one briefly. But keep it within its class.

Great Ape

What matters isn't the quantity of the stuff remaining in the ground
There is probably enough undiscovered oil for thousands of years
What matters is supply Vs demand in the short term

OK, fair enough, you're saying that there's plenty of oil over 10 years, and that digging it up won't be a problem, and won't cause prices to rise significantly. I'll accept that.

Also another factor is that the world is awash in natural gas the two biggest producers USA and Russia have production costs considerably below $8/MWh. That's equal to $13.6 per barrel of oil in energy cost terms.

But ICE cars don't run on natural gas. Power stations do. So you're making EVs cheaper to run with this, whilst arguing EVs are too expensive.

Or we could even run cars directly off natural gas
Cleaner and much cheaper fuel.

And just like that you click your fingers and all ICEs are converted magically.

Why not just quite the prices
I don't see how financial accounting tricks can make something unaffordable affordable it's just misinformation in my view

Because the price varies by mileage. What on earth financial accounting tricks are you talking about?! Where's the misinformation? Do you literally not trust the entire industry of Leasing?!!

Well it depends who is buying and what for

No it doesn't. If someone is in the market for a Corolla, they won't turn round and buy a Model 3. Cars are in catergories. Corolla is a small family hatchback, Tesla is a compact executive saloon. You don't compare the build quality of a Fiesta against a Ferrari, because it's not relevant. Jeremy Clarkson doesn't call a Golf GTI slow, compared to a Ferrari, even though it is of course, but he could compare it to a RenaultSport Megane.

Well $40k ain't $20k that's for sure

They're both for sale in the UK, if you want to use £.

So it's not just a choice of a brand new model 3 for £40k or a focus for £18k add to the competition a 3 year old focus for £9k or a 6 year old one for £5k and you can see why the best selling models are the used car stock

Again, people don't walk out the door to buy a new Tesla and come home with a 6 year old Focus. Second hand Focus are not competition for new Tesla.

£6,371 for two year ownership of the Ionic limited to just 5,000 miles a year
£6,752 for the e Golf over two years and limited to just 5,000 miles per year

Ah, so you did have a look at the prices!

I'm not sure how this makes things more affordable

Let me explain it then. You've paid out <£7k instead of having to find ~£30k. Got it?

Its more affordable in the same way an iPhone on contract is more affordable than paying £1,000 outright but at the end of the day you're paying the full price to Apple one way or another it doesn't help much spreading the cost over 24 months it's better to just buy a more affordable phone if you can't afford the iPhone

No it's not the same as this. You're not ever paying the full price of the car. You drive it for 2 years and hand it back.

Likewise it's better buying a more affordable ICE if you can't afford an e golf
You can get a Hyundai i10 for £7,825 brand new and you get to keep it

Again, if you want an i10, that's fine, and you can do as many miles as you like. But an eGolf is NOT an i10! Why does Ferrari even exist, when drivers could save so much money, and just drive round in an i10?! Heck, what are people doing buying second hand Focus, when they could have a NEW i10 for less?!!!

Now again Tesla has a purpose fun fast premium car
For that it works
To pretend or manipulate to say it's as economical as a corolla or focus is probably just fake news

I never said either of those things, and Mart, above, compares it to a BMW 3 series. Why can't you do the same?

No need to pretend it's going to take over the Toyota Corolla or focus or fiesta segments or that a model 3 is cheaper than a corolla which it almost certainly isn't

I don't think this is aimed at me, but that certainly isn't my view

Tesla doesn't compete with other BEVs Tesla competes with other premium ICE cars

Yes - NOT a Corolla!

JKenH

Tesla quote £454 per month PCP plus £5k deposit for a Model 3 which works out at £558 per month over 4 years. Insurance is likely to be at least £500 pa, so that takes it up to £600 per month before servicing, tyres, electricity etc. I’m not sure of the position on VED as the list price might tip over £40k.

So why are you driving round in a Golf and Picanto, and suddenly chasing, what we can agree by price, is an upmarket car? If you like your Golf, you could literally buy an electric one.

JKenH

almillar wrote: »

JKenH



So why are you driving round in a Golf and Picanto, and suddenly chasing, what we can agree by price, is an upmarket car? If you like your Golf, you could literally buy an electric one.

I don’t perceive a Model 3 as more upmarket than a Golf GTE or eGolf. They are all over £30k cars. The Tesla price I believe includes import duty which makes it a bit more expensive but I don’t perceive it as a premium car. Back in 2016 they were touted as £25k cars.

I did order a Golf GTE in 2017 but demand was so high that by mid 2018 it still hadn’t arrived so I bought a 22 month old diesel Golf instead. I was prepared to pay more for the GTE because I wanted the tech (it was an indulgence which I could afford) but I am very happy with my current Golf. I wouldn’t have bought a diesel Golf new as they are so much cheaper secondhand. There weren’t a lot of GTEs around and what few there were were pricey and I could get a great deal on a new one.

Edit: It is pretty well known that there are huge discounts on a lot of premium ICE cars so comparing list price is misleading. I got around 25% discount when I bought my Merc 4 years ago and the discount on the GTE was similar - both cash deals, not finance. So as I see it the Model 3 can only compete on BIK and fuel cost, not prestige, so they will appeal to the high mileage and company car driver or to the tech geek.

GreatApe

JKenH wrote:

It is pretty well known that there are huge discounts on a lot of premium ICE cars so comparing list price is misleading. I got around 25% discount when I bought my Merc 4 years ago and the discount on the GTE was similar - both cash deals, not finance. So as I see it the Model 3 can only compete on BIK and fuel cost, not prestige, so they will appeal to the high mileage and company car driver or to the tech geek.

Most cars of all types including BEVs have steep discounts off RRP just Tesla don't

E golf is £31,075 RRP but can be had for £23,144 so yes 25% off RRP
Leaf is £31,500 RRP but can be had for £24,337
Tesla 3 is £39,500 RRP and the price is £39,500

The Tesla is the better car but It's almost twice the price when you add the luxury road tax

Prices need to fall another £3K or rather £6.5k as the government grant will be removed at some point.

silverwhistle

iFrom what I can see there is a lot of space in the car market for all the current and future EV models. There have always been lots of different target markets in the overall picture and talk of Tesla's demise or dominance are premature.

I always appreciated Honest John, motoring correspondent on the Daily Telegraph for his choice of motor and reasons: a Hyundai i10 because "it does all I need in a car". Chuntering on here about trims and technology is an irrelevance for many of us, much as some of us would like an EV.



Also I'm not sure going on about a NA market that must have trucks for the distances and the winter is a useful generalisation. There has been a marked decline in the number of youngsters in the US having a driving licence, and as a keen skier who lived in the Alps for a number of years I found a Fabia with snow tyres all I needed along with a collapsible (avalanche) shovel and a brush to get the 40cm of snow off the roof and windscreen! Five up on snowy roads in a non 4x4 diesel Fiat Panda is quite fun, especially if you've had a few! But even there the market segment of EV trucks is being developed.



As the competition increases prices will have to come down and that can only expand the market. As the constraints of battery supply decline, the investment increases and the effort put in to maintaining and updating ICE models slackens the pace of change will increase, I believe, and it would be interesting to see the form debates are taking 5 years from now.