BEVs deals and information

1961Nick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Tesla is less the plug in grant, and I did say comparable, as my understanding of BMW's is that almost everything is 'an extra' ...... "will you be wanting wheels and seats too Sir?"

The 'poverty' spec on a BMW is more than satisfactory these days if you opt for an M-Sport model. The TM3 Long range/Performance is similar & the only option I'll select will be metallic paint.

PS. The stock is up another $33 at present.:cool:

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

Or competitors, hence my comments about the gamble. Agree with the steady state so up to now the production runs have been geared to clearing that backlog.
People are still talking about ship watching for previous orders so when its done the lines can produce the same numbers. Now its down to pretty much order on demand with a 2-3 month lag time for the uk, so time will tell, which brings me back to my comments about January which should give us a better idea of the actual steady state demand, rather than it plus pent up.
Theres talk about them almost being in stock for purchase on demand at the end of the year on the continent (left hand drive) but the UK is probably a couple of months off that with only cancelled orders being available now.


Other manufacturers will come onstream in higher numbers in mid to late 2020 so that may also take effect or tesla may keep their niche in the market. If the korean offering doesnt look like it rolled off a 1990s lada production line ;-) or is cheaper (published prices are a lot cheaper) then that could be the end of them outside of the US.

It is mostly the shiny shiny set so bear that in mind as well, BIK wont really care about marques, its whatever deal they can get and the charging network.
Tesla may have already saturated their uk charging network but again end of January should be the earliest we get indications on that.



As for new models, just going by their published sales the 3 did take away from the previous models or maybe its just coincidence, either way it will be interesting to see if its demand for EV or a particular model.


It will get really interesting in the next few months. Throw in a recession/downturn and its anybodys game.


The charging network in the US really impressed me but you could see that being bought out by Hyundai/Kia, Honda or JLR and converting across. They might end up just being a software company or charging network company as the actual car production element is the bit they really struggle with.


People here have mentioned them as a luxury brand, but you dont take delivery of your luxury car and then go and check the door shuts to see if theyve been painted properly or check the panel gaps or ask why your car only comes with 3 mats when it should have four... etc etc. Teething problems certainly and things done in haste but it all matters, you can be damn sure that none of their conventional competitors will have those sorts of problems when they eventually roll their EVs out.
I bet even Alfa gets it right ;-) well ok I wouldnt bet on that too much...

I think the mistake many people are making is to assume people are buying Tesla's because they are electric. People buy Tesla because it's a premium brand they could be ICE cars and still sell roughly the same number at the same price points

Tesla will do fine they can become a car company the size and scale of BMW outputting 2.5 million units or so per year. Stick to premium price products.

They may not have the quality of a BMW but it doesn't matter because many Tesla buyers have never bought a new BMW before so compared to their second or third hand honda the Tesla will be the best car they have owned

Tesla will expand with the Y and a proper SUV and truck
Tesla will expand with a factory in China and the EU allowing slightly cheaper price points (10% import duty plus perhaps $1,500 shopping to the UK would become 0% import duty and perhaps $500 trucking to the UK of they made model 3s in Germany. That could cut the price by about £4+5k they can keep selling at £40k and improve margins or sell at £35k and increase volume sold

Some time in the 2025-2030 period they might be able to get towards 2.5 million units by comparison 2019 is likely to be about 0.38 million units so it would be a considerable expansion to go from sub 0.4 million to 2.5 million over the next 6-10 years

Tesla isn't apple they won't ever get 50% market share
Tesla as a company could be worth much more if they get self drive technology
But then there are 20+ credible companies that could get there first

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

The 'poverty' spec on a BMW is more than satisfactory these days if you opt for an M-Sport model. The TM3 Long range/Performance is similar & the only option I'll select will be metallic paint.

PS. The stock is up another $33 at present.:cool:

The 3 series diesel sport spec is £29k brand new
The 250 mile range Tesla is £43k before government bribes £39.5k after
So it costs £10k more for the Tesla.
The Tesla also has the above £40k premium road tax so the road tax will be considerably more too for some time

Also BMW is making about 10% net profit on its cars consistently
Tesla on the other hand hasn't made a profit outside of a couple of single quarters
And bear in mind BEVs have significant support by most countries and states including £3.5k bung per car in the UK and 'untaxed fuel' both of which will have to be done away with in time ideally sooner rather than later

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

The 3 series diesel sport spec is £29k brand new
The 250 mile range Tesla is £43k before government bribes £39.5k after
So it costs £10k more for the Tesla.
The Tesla also has the above £40k premium road tax so the road tax will be considerably more too for some time

Also BMW is making about 10% net profit on its cars consistently
Tesla on the other hand hasn't made a profit outside of a couple of single quarters
And bear in mind BEVs have significant support by most countries and states including £3.5k bung per car in the UK and 'untaxed fuel' both of which will have to be done away with in time ideally sooner rather than later

You should be comparing a TM3 with a 3.0 litre MSport BMW. That brings the premium down to £5K - that's only slightly more than I spend every year on diesel!

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

Kia e-nero, hyundai kona, hyundai ioniq all taking deposits. Ignoring the mii and e-corsas etc

As you say they can take some market share from Tesla and Tesla are the best out there and it would only take say a 10% dent in Teslas run to put them under. Right now people dont have any other real option but soon they will have.
A certain proportion of those buys will be a choice between EVs which arent available now and which will hit Tesla, to a greater or lesser degree.
It makes an interesting 6 months or so. EV sales will increase but will be far from clear how it will play out.



As you say, batteries are the bottleneck and that applies across the board which again the other marques can weather that particular storm but Tesla cant. They can also outbid Tesla for the batteries and subsidise that across different models.

Tesla doesn't compete with other BEVs Tesla competes with other premium ICE cars

The problem isn't so much other BEVs the problem is if governments pull their very heavy subsidies of BEVs

In the UK a typical model 3 over its life will get Close to £20k in subsidies (mostly in not paying fuel duties)

That's okay for now because well the government is stupid it's not okay but it's sustainable in small numbers. As BEV deployment increases those subsidies will have to be removed

Also in the USA the federal tax credits for Tesla end I think Jan 2020 so for buyers the effective cost of s Tesla will be going up nearby $1,875 in a couple of months time. This won't crash demand but it will marginally reduce demand

Overall Tesla will survive and will grow but it's not apple it's not going to get 50% of the car market more likely it might be able to grow to the size and scale of BMW (3% of the market) over the next 7-10 years

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

You should be comparing a TM3 with a 3.0 litre MSport BMW. That brings the premium down to £5K - that's only slightly more than I spend every year on diesel!

You do 30-40k miles a year?

For you an electric car makes sense but such high mileage isn't common

The typical UK driver does more like 7,100 miles

BEVs make good sense for taxis

I wish musk would go for a middle ground and deploy a fleet of model 3 taxis whereby a remote operator drives the model 3 to a customer. Then the customer drives himself to where he wants to go. Then the remote operator drives to the next passenger and the new customer gets in and drives themselves to where they are going etc. This way one remote human pilot could control 10 Tesla taxis and the customers can drive themselves. So 90% customer driven 10% remote operator driven. 40p per mile would be great

If the model 3 can really do a million miles in its life that's £400k revenue for Tesla beats getting £40k. And each Tesla taxi could do 100,000 miles a year displacing 15 ICE car miles

If such a service existed I'd get rid of my diesel and just use that for everything

1961Nick

GreatApe wrote: »

You do 30-40k miles a year?

For you an electric car makes sense but such high mileage isn't common

The typical UK driver does more like 7,100 miles

BEVs make good sense for taxis

I wish musk would go for a middle ground and deploy a fleet of model 3 taxis whereby a remote operator drives the model 3 to a customer. Then the customer drives himself to where he wants to go. Then the remote operator drives to the next passenger and the new customer gets in and drives themselves to where they are going etc. This way one remote human pilot could control 10 Tesla taxis and the customers can drive themselves. So 90% customer driven 10% remote operator driven. 40p per mile would be great

If the model 3 can really do a million miles in its life that's £400k revenue for Tesla beats getting £40k. And each Tesla taxi could do 100,000 miles a year displacing 15 ICE car miles

If such a service existed I'd get rid of my diesel and just use that for everything

My annual mileage is 33,000. A TM3 performance will save me around £12K pa in fuel, BIK & servicing. On top of that, my business gets a 100% first year capital allowance ... another £10K.:cool:

GreatApe

ABrass wrote: »

What manufacturers are planning on bringing on comparable numbers of cars in 2020? The ID3 is the closest and that's got to share it's factory with Jaguar and the factory is only expected to be able to produce 300-330k units a year. Or less than Tesla is producing right now of the model 3 before their second factory comes on line.

The idea that there's oodles of other EV manufacturers just around the corner that'll do more or cheaper has been promised for years and has failed to arrive. The other EVs might take some market share from Tesla, but they're more likely to take it from ICE.

Oh and that's pretending that they can source that many batteries, which is stretching plausibility. Batteries are a competitive market and the shortfall is already responsible for limited number of some otherwise good looking EVs.

Other BEVs won't compete with Tesla but what other BEVs will do is make BEV subsidies unsustainable so that will impact Tesla

As for manufacturing capacity plug in Hybrids could be the future
15KWh batteries with 50 mile electric range before the petrol engine kicks in
Lighter and cheaper to produce than a full BEV but with 95%+ of the benefits

With mass deployment of chargers if people can charge easily both ends that would mean the vast majority of trips would be Pure electric

Tesla should release a model 3 with low range plus petrol range extender
50 mile all electric then petrol range of 300 miles.
For most people especially in the UK such a Tesla for £30k would be far more compelling than a 250 mile range £40k Tesla. And it means 5 X as many could be produced for the same quantity of batteries. If the batteries are okay great. If they need replacing should be easy and affordable certainly more affordable replacing 12KWh Vs replacing 55KWh pack. 22% of the cost

A single giga factory that can output 65GWh a year can do 1 million full BEV Tesla's or 5 million plug in Hybrids with 50 mile range.

GreatApe

1961Nick wrote: »

My annual mileage is 33,000. A TM3 performance will save me around £12K pa in fuel, BIK & servicing. On top of that, my business gets a 100% first year capital allowance ... another £10K.:cool:

Sounds good for you given the current rules and regs

Of course a lot of this saving is tax saving so while it saves you money it wouldn't be possible on a large scale

Martyn1981

joefizz wrote: »

Thats why I think Tesla might be killed off next year. If it does get standardised and uniform (along with batteries) then USP is the tech/trim levels/models/brand loyalty. There wont be long enough time to get people used to the non-dealer network and other advantages Tesla currently have yet are still burning cash.



Electric motors arent new tech, very late in the development cycle, no USP with them and no IP so really once they are applied that will pretty much be it. Batteries may have also run their course for the forseeable.
Its not unforseeable to see one or two suppliers for every motor and every battery.



When the other manufacturers catchup (have you seen the sheer number of EV models arranged for 2021!) that might be the end of them and back to BAU for the car manufacturers.


All the speed/performance/range advantage right now is temporary. Its all a factor of being an EV, not of a particular brand.


Wait to see what the japanese/koreans deliver in 6-18 months and once the Tesla 3 backlog has been delivered to see what the actual demand is.

Ahh, the mythical 'Tesla killers'.

Well, as one car engineer said, nobody has yet managed to match the 2012 Tesla S yet, but if the Germans work really hard over the next 2-3yrs then they should be able to, and then they will only be a decade behind Tesla.

The main problem for these companies is that they lose money on BEV's. Tesla had to produce $100k BEV's to make a profit in the past, and produce/sell ~300k TM3's pa to make the 'cheap' BEV profitable.

The other companies lose money on BEV's, and will lose all the remaining CAPEX value in dedicated ICE production as they reduce/end those sales.

But Tesla is not only profitable, they've done it whilst spending CAPEX in Shanghai, and the TMY pre-production*, and this quarter reduced their OPEX despite producing more cars.

*Actually there are now quite a lot of early production TMY's being spotted out and about in the US.

Also bear in mind, as ABrass points out, they have their own in house battery production with Panasonic, and look to be about to start producing their own batts.

It's a very old concept now to consider Tesla the new kid, and the other companies the 'establishment', as Tesla is already the leading BEV producer both in technology and numbers, so the other companies will be the 'new' guys, and I suspect it is Tesla that now holds the brand loyalty trump card, not them.

[For full disclosure, I own Tesla shares, but I'm not saying any of this because I own shares, I own shares because of what I'm saying. M]