BEVs deals and information

joefizz

Martyn1981 wrote: »

That's one of the beauties of the BEV, standardisation of the drivetrain.

Thats why I think Tesla might be killed off next year. If it does get standardised and uniform (along with batteries) then USP is the tech/trim levels/models/brand loyalty. There wont be long enough time to get people used to the non-dealer network and other advantages Tesla currently have yet are still burning cash.



Electric motors arent new tech, very late in the development cycle, no USP with them and no IP so really once they are applied that will pretty much be it. Batteries may have also run their course for the forseeable.
Its not unforseeable to see one or two suppliers for every motor and every battery.



When the other manufacturers catchup (have you seen the sheer number of EV models arranged for 2021!) that might be the end of them and back to BAU for the car manufacturers.


All the speed/performance/range advantage right now is temporary. Its all a factor of being an EV, not of a particular brand.


Wait to see what the japanese/koreans deliver in 6-18 months and once the Tesla 3 backlog has been delivered to see what the actual demand is.

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

Thats why I think Tesla might be killed off next year. If it does get standardised and uniform (along with batteries) then USP is the tech/trim levels/models/brand loyalty. There wont be long enough time to get people used to the non-dealer network and other advantages Tesla currently have yet are still burning cash.

Electric motors arent new tech, very late in the development cycle, no USP with them and no IP so really once they are applied that will pretty much be it. Batteries may have also run their course for the forseeable.
Its not unforseeable to see one or two suppliers for every motor and every battery.

When the other manufacturers catchup (have you seen the sheer number of EV models arranged for 2021!) that might be the end of them and back to BAU for the car manufacturers.

All the speed/performance/range advantage right now is temporary. Its all a factor of being an EV, not of a particular brand.

Wait to see what the japanese/koreans deliver in 6-18 months and once the Tesla 3 backlog has been delivered to see what the actual demand is.

Tesla will survive but it won't dominate the world like Marty and friends hope

It could become a higher end brand with a 2-3% market share in the same way BMW is

And you are right it's most likely that specialist battery and BEV electronics and motor companies will exist and all the car companies will buy their batteries motors and power electronics from these commodity companies

ABrass

The general theory is that the backlog is already gone. The demand in the UK is going to rocket due to BIK alone.

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

The general theory is that the backlog is already gone. The demand in the UK is going to rocket due to BIK alone.

And thats the gamble...

ABrass

Sorry, I'll be more clear. Tesla have run through all the old backlog of orders and is now operating at a steady state. Given their profit margins they have room to drop the price, if they want to, to stimulate demand.

So in other words, despite churning out 7k a week they are still supply limited.

The most plausible reason for model 3 demand to drop is the model Y. But since that can run on the same production line and is planned to have better margin that's not a bad thing. It's more of a challenge for Tesla to build another line or two in the US to meet the future demand increase.

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

Sorry, I'll be more clear. Tesla have run through all the old backlog of orders and is now operating at a steady state. Given their profit margins they have room to drop the price, if they want to, to stimulate demand.

So in other words, despite churning out 7k a week they are still supply limited.

The most plausible reason for model 3 demand to drop is the model Y. But since that can run on the same production line and is planned to have better margin that's not a bad thing. It's more of a challenge for Tesla to build another line or two in the US to meet the future demand increase.

Or competitors, hence my comments about the gamble. Agree with the steady state so up to now the production runs have been geared to clearing that backlog.
People are still talking about ship watching for previous orders so when its done the lines can produce the same numbers. Now its down to pretty much order on demand with a 2-3 month lag time for the uk, so time will tell, which brings me back to my comments about January which should give us a better idea of the actual steady state demand, rather than it plus pent up.
Theres talk about them almost being in stock for purchase on demand at the end of the year on the continent (left hand drive) but the UK is probably a couple of months off that with only cancelled orders being available now.


Other manufacturers will come onstream in higher numbers in mid to late 2020 so that may also take effect or tesla may keep their niche in the market. If the korean offering doesnt look like it rolled off a 1990s lada production line ;-) or is cheaper (published prices are a lot cheaper) then that could be the end of them outside of the US.

It is mostly the shiny shiny set so bear that in mind as well, BIK wont really care about marques, its whatever deal they can get and the charging network.
Tesla may have already saturated their uk charging network but again end of January should be the earliest we get indications on that.



As for new models, just going by their published sales the 3 did take away from the previous models or maybe its just coincidence, either way it will be interesting to see if its demand for EV or a particular model.


It will get really interesting in the next few months. Throw in a recession/downturn and its anybodys game.


The charging network in the US really impressed me but you could see that being bought out by Hyundai/Kia, Honda or JLR and converting across. They might end up just being a software company or charging network company as the actual car production element is the bit they really struggle with.


People here have mentioned them as a luxury brand, but you dont take delivery of your luxury car and then go and check the door shuts to see if theyve been painted properly or check the panel gaps or ask why your car only comes with 3 mats when it should have four... etc etc. Teething problems certainly and things done in haste but it all matters, you can be damn sure that none of their conventional competitors will have those sorts of problems when they eventually roll their EVs out.
I bet even Alfa gets it right ;-) well ok I wouldnt bet on that too much...

ABrass

What manufacturers are planning on bringing on comparable numbers of cars in 2020? The ID3 is the closest and that's got to share it's factory with Jaguar and the factory is only expected to be able to produce 300-330k units a year. Or less than Tesla is producing right now of the model 3 before their second factory comes on line.

The idea that there's oodles of other EV manufacturers just around the corner that'll do more or cheaper has been promised for years and has failed to arrive. The other EVs might take some market share from Tesla, but they're more likely to take it from ICE.

Oh and that's pretending that they can source that many batteries, which is stretching plausibility. Batteries are a competitive market and the shortfall is already responsible for limited number of some otherwise good looking EVs.

JKenH

I did some sums earlier but then lost the post so here is a precis. I would like an Ev because I love tech but can’t justify one .

My VW Golf was bought at less than 2 years old for under £12k with 2 years VW warranty and free servicing. I have worked out that if it loses half its value in two years, it will have cost me in total £312 a month to run over 6k miles per annum, at 60mpg, zero road tax, (including £187 per year insurance). Excluding depreciation that’s £62 per month.

My wife’s Kia Picanto, bought new just over 8 years ago has cost less than £2k a year to run for a similar mileage, that’s £167 per month.

Remember these figures include depreciation, insurance, fuel, tyres servicing etc. Without depreciation the cost of running the Golf for two years is about £62 per month (servicing is free for 2 years). (OK the Golf is not new but with the warranty it stands comparison with a new car for worry free motoring for 2 years.)

Tesla quote £454 per month PCP plus £5k deposit for a Model 3 which works out at £558 per month over 4 years. Insurance is likely to be at least £500 pa, so that takes it up to £600 per month before servicing, tyres, electricity etc. I’m not sure of the position on VED as the list price might tip over £40k.

joefizz

ABrass wrote: »

What manufacturers are planning on bringing on comparable numbers of cars in 2020?

Kia e-nero, hyundai kona, hyundai ioniq all taking deposits. Ignoring the mii and e-corsas etc

As you say they can take some market share from Tesla and Tesla are the best out there and it would only take say a 10% dent in Teslas run to put them under. Right now people dont have any other real option but soon they will have.
A certain proportion of those buys will be a choice between EVs which arent available now and which will hit Tesla, to a greater or lesser degree.
It makes an interesting 6 months or so. EV sales will increase but will be far from clear how it will play out.



As you say, batteries are the bottleneck and that applies across the board which again the other marques can weather that particular storm but Tesla cant. They can also outbid Tesla for the batteries and subsidise that across different models.

ABrass

We'll see. I'm betting it'll be a repeat of the Bolt, Ioniq, eGolf and so on. Over promised and under supplied.

Oh and didn't you know? Tesla is the only manufacturer to have their own dedicated battery lines. They're the one company that won't suffer.