BEVs deals and information

Martyn1981

ABrass wrote: »

Edit:
The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Sadly Nissan don't want to build as many puddings to sell to people.

That, sadly, seems to be the case for all of them. Though to be fair, Nissan and Renault are playing in the low price end, where you need enormous sales to turn a profit. Tesla had to get into the 300k pa range to go profitable on the TM3 and that's a mid size luxury car.

I had high hopes for the Chevy Bolt, as it's a decent car, with potential, and personally I thought it was more important than Tesla as it represented a transition from ICE to BEV, what the World really needs to see, whereas Tesla is just proving the tech and market - opening the door (or is it eyes) for the old guard. Sadly however the Bolt seems stuck at around 2,000 units pm, a pitiful figure.

Obviously i support what Tesla is doing, and the circular solution of power generation (PV), storage (batts) and consumption (auto's), and i support the route they've taken by going for profitability first, then expanding downwards in size and cost. But for me the really important Tesla has not yet been announced, only talked about, and that's the T$25k, which is what we really need (and from any manufacturer) to really disrupt the market.

In fairness to Nissan, they are at around the right size and range with the latest 64kWh Leaf, but costs need to come down significantly, and a profit sy=till be made, for it be sustainable.

But over all, really good news regarding BEV's, and I'm interested to know the make and model of this car that will match Tesla in 2020 (or 2023, not 100% sure what was being stated)?

GreatApe

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But over all, really good news regarding BEV's, and I'm interested to know the make and model of this car that will match Tesla in 2020 (or 2023, not 100% sure what was being stated)?

Ten models that exceed Tesla in the UK

Fiesta 96k units
Golf 65k units
Corsa 53k
Qashqai 51k
Focus 50k
Polo 45k
Mini 45k
A-Class 44k
Kuga 40k
Sportage 36k


But they're not BEVs!! So what? people want cars they don't care if it's BEV or ICE. Remind us which do you drive?

joefizz

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I had high hopes for the Chevy Bolt

Go to America and see why Martyn, petrol is too cheap, cars and trucks are too cheap, distances are too vast, everything is built around the car. A lot of the northern side of the country have 2 vehicles, car/suv for summer, truck for winter.


You also need to appreciate how cars are used over there. There are some states that are called drive through for a reason. Set your cruise control, get on the interstate and keep going and going. Every 350 miles stick your card in an auto machine and less than 10 minutes later you are back on the interstate again.
Most of my US friends assumed I was going to try Chicago to Orlando in one go (they would, 2 drivers) and warned me against it. (i'd planned 9 days). Ive driven 800 miles in a day there before and that wasnt unusual, in fact Ive driven 450 miles round trip for a one hour lunchtime meeting (again not unusual for them) I often joke to friends and colleagues over there that many of their 'normal' drives would have me running out of island.



As I mentioned earlier I hired a Nissan Versa for my drive from Chicago to Orlando and it can be had for about 14k dollars new. Thats not far off 11-12 grand which is a lot of car for the money (considering it cost me 1/10 of that to hire it for a month). Did about 350 miles for about 18 quid.


With most cheap EVs over there coming in at around 30k you can buy the versa, and a cheap truck for that. IIRC the hyundai ioniq is just under 30k with the plug in hybrid around 25k. Obviously lower range than the 45k models but thats the compromise.



Add in over half the population thinking that its all a scam/nothing to be worried about anyway and you can see the figures are about right for CA/Chicago/eastern seaboard cities. Of the rest of the population only a very few can afford electric cars and with a lot of people living in apartments etc..
California is ideal for EVs unless you try to cross the Sierras in winter where even a truck may not help (I crossed in April in a dodge intrepid and that was dicey at times and some of the roads were still closed).
Ive driven across parts of canada in winter and wouldnt do it in a normal car. Regardless how liberal Canada thinks it is and how many evs they drive in the summer, come october the trucks get dusted off...



Its been 17 years since Ive been in Japan and at the time I was really impressed with the k cars over there and wondered why they never took off here for cities (my uncle bought one of the uk variants when he retired). Probably the same reason why we look to the states and wonder why low engined high mpg (although they are improving over there) cars never took off there. Its the mindset.
I would have thought the electric versions there would have taken over too as short range wouldnt be an issue.


Theres always been the tech, my own diesel car has always had a french postal electric equivalent. I can easily source an electric motor and put it on the drivetrain. In 2007 it had nicads and a real world range of 50 mile. Would probably cost me about 4 grand to convert as pretty much its drop the engine and gearbox out and direct replacements (most 1.6hdi french diesels can go the same way, or the modern equivalent now has I think 100 mile range with lithium batteries just in the engine bay).


The tech has always been there but as we see with plug in hybrids, by and large they are bought for tax purposes and not plugged in, which sort of negates the whole point. Proper taxation of the actual FF use vs electric use would have been the way to go, but a bit more complicated and would probably cost more to administer (if they ever could). The mindset would have to change a lot to allow over the air reporting to tax authorities ;-)


Big cities should really be small evs with min 50 mile range plug in hybrids for a lot of the rest over here but with the proviso that the ev section is the short journey/first to be used. None of that isnt available right now, just the will to do it isnt there. Full EVs for the longer range/higher mileage usage.


Ideally we in europe should be driving (excuse the pun) this as the folk I spoke to in america about green issues said, first europe, then california, then the rest of us slowly and begrudgingly.


I remember being shipped off to a family in Switzerland in 1981 for a month and doing the weekly recycle there, was over 20 years before we did it here.


I remember when the model 3 was confirmed at 25k GBP within 3 years back in 2014. I guess they must not have worked hard enough at that one. Maybe they will with the 25k usd one as 2021 is now only about 14 months away, it should be well along development by now...


I remember my mate reserving his model 3... just... he put it on the credit card just in case it didnt materialise so he could get his money back. Just over 2 years ago but could have been longer. As I said, will be interesting to see it going forward now that 2 years of demand have been delivered in a few months.
If they do reveal a 25k usd one or a 25k gbp model 3 they can take my money... ...will still put the deposit on the credit card though ;-)

joefizz

GreatApe wrote: »

And almost everyone seems to be saying the actual car isn't as premium as a premium brand typical is

Heres one aspect to it. The Model 3 in parts of the UK may suffer a similar fate as the prius in other places.

Its an absolutely perfect taxi here in the UK. (apart from the meter thing in places where its specified)



Nothing says I drive a luxury car brand more than when you turn up and your rich mates think you have fallen on hard times and have to sideline for uber/lyft/(whoever is left when they go bust).
25 years ago I spent some time in Munich. Every taxi was a mercedes. It wasnt any type of mercedes, a specific type of mercedes, no switches in back, could be hosed down, yellow and black trim outside and inside. Bare bones, spartan or minimalist you might say.. ideally designed to be a taxi... In fact they called it the mercedes taxi and you had to be a registered taxi driver to buy one (I know I got the brochure). It had to look different from the same car available for the public because people who bought high end mercedes didnt want people to think they owned a taxi...


Full disclosure, my first ride in a model 3 in the US was as an uber...

GreatApe

The future should be plug in Hybrids

50 mile range then a small petrol generator kicks in to power the electric motor

With charge points everywhere so you can charge at both ends this would allow 98% annual mileage to be electric

No matter how cheap batteries get, 400kg of expensive material batteries won't become cheaper than 80kg generator made of mostly cheap steel

Battery limits would be much less of a problem because a given battery factory can supply the packs for 6 times as many plug in Hybrids as it can one full BEV

If the ICE bans come in I suspect these mid range plug in Hybrids will be the solution not full sized heavy expensive BEVs

michaels

China manufacture most goods and I can not see why the same will not be true of Evs - or be it perhaps with western brands. That is the real competition to Tesla and all the other traditional car brands.

GreatApe

joefizz wrote: »

Heres one aspect to it. The Model 3 in parts of the UK may suffer a similar fate as the prius in other places.

Its an absolutely perfect taxi here in the UK. (apart from the meter thing in places where its specified)

Nothing says I drive a luxury car brand more than when you turn up and your rich mates think you have fallen on hard times and have to sideline for uber/lyft/(whoever is left when they go bust).
25 years ago I spent some time in Munich. Every taxi was a mercedes. It wasnt any type of mercedes, a specific type of mercedes, no switches in back, could be hosed down, yellow and black trim outside and inside. Bare bones, spartan or minimalist you might say.. ideally designed to be a taxi... In fact they called it the mercedes taxi and you had to be a registered taxi driver to buy one (I know I got the brochure). It had to look different from the same car available for the public because people who bought high end mercedes didnt want people to think they owned a taxi...

Full disclosure, my first ride in a model 3 in the US was as an uber...

I doubt full electric is the near future 5-20 years
More likely is plug in Hybrids

500kg battery only BEV Vs 100kg battery 80kg generator Plug in hybrid

Clearly the plug in hybrid will be cheaper it's 400kg less batteries made from expensive materials swapped for 80kg much cheaper mostly steel generator. 320kg less mass also means the frame and suspension of the car can be lighter and the tires are less stressed and less rolling resistance and less energy to accelerate and decelerate a smaller mass so can have a smaller electric motor and smaller power electronics

Even though it's only say 50 miles range this covers probably in excess of 95% of a cars lifetime mileage.

Premium cars can be 300 mile full BEVs
Affordable cars can be 50 mile plug in Hybrids

I'd prefer the plug in hybrid
For 98% of users it's probably lifetime less CO2 intensive because not producing 300kg of heavy expensive batteries is a lot of energy savings probably more so than the 200kg of fuel such a car might burn in a 15 year life

Also of course battery limits go away (or become much less of an issue)
Can build 6 million plug in Hybrids in place of 1 million full BEVs
So much more rapid electrification of miles


Tesla would have a bigger impact building 2.5 million plug in hybrid model 3s for $33k than they have today building 0.4 million full electric cars for for $40-$100k

A $30k plug in model 3 competitor would cost $22.5k after federal tax credit Vs $40k for a model 3 since their tax credit is dead in a couple of months.

GreatApe

michaels wrote: »

China manufacture most goods and I can not see why the same will not be true of Evs - or be it perhaps with western brands. That is the real competition to Tesla and all the other traditional car brands.

Floating currency won't allow just one nation to dominate car manufacturing
The yuan would sky rocket and other currencies would fall

Also wages in China will catch up so their wage cost advantage will fall
There are also transport and tariff costs

But they could become an exporter the size and scale of say Japan or Germany but more than that is unlikely imo

Plus their domestic demand will increase towards 50 million cars a year so they need to grow production from about 25 million to 50 million units a year to cover domestic demand before any major net exports

Hexane

joefizz wrote: »

25 years ago I spent some time in Munich. Every taxi was a mercedes. It wasnt any type of mercedes, a specific type of mercedes, no switches in back, could be hosed down, yellow and black trim outside and inside. Bare bones, spartan or minimalist you might say.. ideally designed to be a taxi... In fact they called it the mercedes taxi and you had to be a registered taxi driver to buy one (I know I got the brochure). It had to look different from the same car available for the public because people who bought high end mercedes didnt want people to think they owned a taxi.

I was in Munich on business slightly more recently, every single vehicle in the taxi rank at the airport was an Audi A8. Every single one, dozens of them all queued up. Possibly a similar deal to the Mercedes one, I didn't know the vehicle well enough to check.

Hexane

michaels wrote: »

China manufacture most goods and I can not see why the same will not be true of Evs - or be it perhaps with western brands. That is the real competition to Tesla and all the other traditional car brands.

Yes that is correct, Chinese people will be manufacturing the Tesla; China is where Tesla's second factory is now starting production.