Will Brexit happen?

Herzlos

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Perhaps you’re acting for some foreign power.

I'm not sure. Unless it's a double bluff or an appeal to perceived illiteracy, you'd assume a foreign power would be hiring someone with perfect English to play the dissident.


However I guess it's not really for us to judge; we can understand most of the statements even if a bit quirky, and I'd hate to be picking on someone with writing quirks due to something like dyslexia or deafness when s/he's perfectly understandable.

Herzlos

Tromking wrote: »

Cummings plan coming along quite nicely.
The story will soon switch from Boris defeated in the Commons to the usual suspects kicking the can down the road again by asking for an extension.
The act of purging the Tory rebels thus making the BJ administration untenable will lead inevitably to a GE. A GE where Boris can point at all the rest of the parties and tell a Brexit weary public that I attempted to leave and Corbyn and the rest stopped me. The man is a genius.

Unless Labour refuses a GE and leaves Boris at the helm without any actual power (he's no longer got the numbers to force anything).

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

Unless Labour refuses a GE and leaves Boris at the helm without any actual power (he's no longer got the numbers to force anything).

How long does that state of affairs last?
Labour themselves say they’ll only vote against a GE until the threat of no deal on the 31st October ends.
A GE is coming.

Herzlos

They could deny a GE, leave Boris to carry the can, block no deal and then get go for a GE against a humiliated (if it's possible) Boris.


Having a GE before no deal is ruled out is only going to favour the Tories, as Boris will campaign on "Brexit at all costs! Brexit! Brexit Brexit!".

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

Having a GE before no deal is ruled out is only going to favour the Tories, as Boris will campaign on "Brexit at all costs! Brexit! Brexit Brexit!".

I believe the proroguing was done purely to force parliament into doing what they did yesterday, so that he could remove the MPs that don't support him and call a general election before the effect of his plan can be felt.

Tromking wrote: »

Labour themselves say they’ll only vote against a GE until the threat of no deal on the 31st October ends.
A GE is coming.

Maybe not immediately though, if they can form a majority government within parliament in the mean time then they will. They could then negotiate with the EU and implement something more like the Swiss deal.

Whether that would get through parliament is another matter, but at least they wouldn't be encumbered by the far rights red lines & keeping the DUP happy.

lisyloo

phillw wrote: »

I believe the proroguing was done purely to force parliament into doing what they did yesterday, so that he could remove the MPs that don't support him and call a general election before the effect of his plan can be felt.

I don’t get this.
The by elections we’ve had have meant the Tories have lost seats.
Getting rid of “national treasures” like winston Churchill’s grandson could lose further votes from people who are voting for the individual.

He also doesn’t have the power to call a GE unilaterally.

It’s definitely high stakes stuff.

Maybe not immediately though, if they can form a majority government within parliament in the mean time then they will. They could then negotiate with the EU and implement something more like the Swiss deal.
Whether that would get through parliament is another matter, but at least they wouldn't be encumbered by the far rights red lines & keeping the DUP happy.

I like the idea but there seems to be deadlock between those who insist on Corbyn and those who insist on anyone but Corbyn.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

I believe the proroguing was done purely to force parliament into doing what they did yesterday, so that he could remove the MPs that don't support him and call a general election before the effect of his plan can be felt.

Well there seems no plan as to how to exit the EU on terms which everyone finds acceptable. The UK is simply sinking into further disunity. With factions simply fighting for there own longer term objectives. At least Boris has tried to bring matters to a head. The lack of support for a General Election sounds like power grabbing by the back door. With Corbyn & Co afraid to face the electorate.

Filo25

phillw wrote: »

I believe the proroguing was done purely to force parliament into doing what they did yesterday, so that he could remove the MPs that don't support him and call a general election before the effect of his plan can be felt.



Maybe not immediately though, if they can form a majority government within parliament in the mean time then they will. They could then negotiate with the EU and implement something more like the Swiss deal.

Whether that would get through parliament is another matter, but at least they wouldn't be encumbered by the far rights red lines & keeping the DUP happy.

I fully agree that this was pretty much the Johnson plan from the start, probably the way he is most likely to win a GE as well.

Basically he wants to be seen to be fervently pushing for Brexit, but being frustrated by Parliament, so he has no choice but to call an election which he will fight on a "Parliament v The People" basis.

It's a tough balancing act, he needs to be seen as a Brexit true believer so he can win over all those voters going to the Bexit party, on the other hand he definitely doesn't want to actually deliver a no-deal Brexit before a GE as fighting an election in the undoubted chaotic aftermath of no deal isn't going to be a vote winner.

Labour can't form a government though, the Tory rebels won't vote for Corbyn as PM in sufficient numbers, and it will also only add power to the accusation that Parliament is ignoring the will of the people and is afraid of a GE.

There isn't a majority for No Deal in the country, but you don't need one to win a GE under FPTP, if Johnson can get up to the 40% range by combiniung No Dealers and other True Blue Tories he will probably be pretty confident, Corbyn is as divisive and unpopular as ever (although probably grateful for the opportunity provided yesterday to look more statesmanlike with more cross party support), and I think Labour will have difficulties in stitching its 2017 voter coalition back together.

But campaigns can be funny things and May looked a hell of a lot more secure going into the 2017 GE than Johnson does now, and we all know how that worked out.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Well there seems no plan as to how to exit the EU on terms which everyone finds acceptable. The UK is simply sinking into further disunity. With factions simply fighting for there own longer term objectives. At least Boris has tried to bring matters to a head. The lack of support for a General Election sounds like power grabbing by the back door. With Corbyn & Co afraid to face the electorate.

To be honest they are more afriad of Johnson moving the goalposts and moving the election date back so that No Deal happens by default with no approval by Parliament.

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

They could deny a GE, leave Boris to carry the can, block no deal and then get go for a GE against a humiliated (if it's possible) Boris

Carry the can for what exactly?