Will Brexit happen?

Crashy_Time

Arklight wrote: »

If we can take anything from the election results, it is that the country is still split down the middle. My feeling is that if there were another referendum it would be a narrow win for Remain, but not much more than that.

I think there would need to be a 60% margin or so in order to seem a legitimate shift of opinion to overturn the last referendum.

Again that misses the point IMO, you can`t run a vote the size of the 2016 ref., promise to uphold the result then back down when the result isn`t the "desired" one, not without serious political repercussions anyway. The sensible politicians know they have to leave or face further damage to their already badly damaged system, including the ascent of parties who want to change how the system works. The point of democracy is that someone has to lose, but you respect the majority decision. Remain lost.

Herzlos

Everyone lost. That's the problem; there's no mandate for what to do to get out of this mess.

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Again that misses the point IMO, you can`t run a vote the size of the 2016 ref., promise to uphold the result then back down when the result isn`t the "desired" one, not without serious political repercussions anyway. The sensible politicians know they have to leave or face further damage to their already badly damaged system, including the ascent of parties who want to change how the system works. The point of democracy is that someone has to lose, but you respect the majority decision. Remain lost.

This is the first sensible thing you’ve said in a long time.
Although I agree about serious political repercussions that has to be weighed up against actions that some would consider suicidal.
For example the DUP might see the political repercussions as secondary to the border issue.

BobQ

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Again that misses the point IMO, you can`t run a vote the size of the 2016 ref., promise to uphold the result then back down when the result isn`t the "desired" one, not without serious political repercussions anyway. The sensible politicians know they have to leave or face further damage to their already badly damaged system, including the ascent of parties who want to change how the system works. The point of democracy is that someone has to lose, but you respect the majority decision. Remain lost.

I agree to some extent but if you do this without clearly stating what happens next and then wait three years and then pretend the outcome meant something other than what you campaigned upon that too discredits the vote.. So you say Brexit means something like a Norway plus arrangement and then say it actually meant leaving the single market. I cannot recall one credible Leave campaign leaver saying Leave meant a WTO Brexit. That too undermines the legitimacy of the vote.

SpiderLegs

BobQ wrote: »

I agree to some extent but if you do this without clearly stating what happens next and then wait three years and then pretend the outcome meant something other than what you campaigned upon that too discredits the vote.. So you say Brexit means something like a Norway plus arrangement and then say it actually meant leaving the single market. I cannot recall one credible Leave campaign leaver saying Leave meant a WTO Brexit. That too undermines the legitimacy of the vote.

It’s a bit odd to complain that leave didn’t have a clear plan three years ago and also complain that today’s plan is not the same as the clear plan from three years ago that didn’t exist.

Also a bit odd for people to bang on about how apparently opinions have changed in three years so we need another referendum, but seem to expect the leave side to stick rigidly to their original views.

lisyloo

SpiderLegs wrote: »

It’s a bit odd to complain that leave didn’t have a clear plan three years ago and also complain that today’s plan is not the same as the clear plan from three years ago that didn’t exist.

Also a bit odd for people to bang on about how apparently opinions have changed in three years so we need another referendum, but seem to expect the leave side to stick rigidly to their original views.

Excellent post.
Leave votes can change their minds but they can only claim the legitimacy of the referendum on what was voted on at the time.

phillw

The general election also brings into question the legitimacy of the referendum result. If the will of the people was to leave then they have a funny way of showing it by making sure the party who wanted to leave were unable to.

It will be interesting how the favourite for Tory leader does in court and what effect it will have. He was the clearest violator of public trust but not the only one. The erg should be on notice

SpiderLegs

lisyloo wrote: »

Excellent post.
Leave votes can change their minds but they can only claim the legitimacy of the referendum on what was voted on at the time.

Oh absolutely. Same as every election.

lisyloo

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Oh absolutely. Same as every election.

Well you were saying we expect them to stick rigidly to their views and that’s not the case.
However they cannot claim the legitimacy of the referendum for different views.

phillw

Ive been reading the invisible gorilla. Studies show that if you ask people their opinion then it can change, when you ask them what their opinion was the last time they were asked they can think it was what their opinion is now. Despite you having evidence of the change.

Leave voters saying they wanted WTO brexit is no proof. We need a public vote to remove any back tracking and weazling out in the future. Bbbut I just voted for bendy bananas and 350 million to the NHS, claims which Boris shall be answering in court