Will Brexit happen?

mayonnaise

Tromking wrote: »

A party advocating no fear in a no deal has been polling toward 40% in the EU election.

Parties advocating no fear in a no deal have received 35% of the vote.
Parties advocating no fear in a no brexit have received 40% of the vote.

Tromking wrote: »

I fear you may be trying to predict the future whilst looking into rather biased Remain crystal ball.

My biased Remain crystal ball is looking brighter than ever! :T

mayonnaise

mayonnaise wrote: »

Brexit will happen.

In name only.

Can I change my vote in a MSE poll?
Following the resounding victory of pro-Remain parties last week, I'm now 100% confident Brexit won't happen.

Tromking

mayonnaise wrote: »

Can I change my vote in a MSE poll?
Following the resounding victory of pro-Remain parties last week, I'm now 100% confident Brexit won't happen.

You're going to have to show your workings out for that prediction.

Malthusian

Tromking wrote: »

You're going to have to show your workings out for that prediction.

58% victory for Leave in European elections + ruling party now backing no-deal to avoid losing GE votes to Brexit Party + official opposition coming out in favour of second referendum (in which Leave has a 58% head start) + unicorns = 100% Brexit won't happen.

After three years of claiming that 48% is more than 52%, Remain has now finally cracked and gone totally gonzo with this "we won the European elections" shtick.

Filo25

Malthusian wrote: »

58% victory for Leave in European elections + ruling party now backing no-deal to avoid losing GE votes to Brexit Party + official opposition coming out in favour of second referendum (in which Leave has a 58% head start) + unicorns = 100% Brexit won't happen.

After three years of claiming that 48% is more than 52%, Remain has now finally cracked and gone totally gonzo with this "we won the European elections" shtick.

It is pretty generous to put Labour in any bucket as their efforts to be all things to all people leaves them picking up support from a wide variety of people, Ashcroft's polling indicated that a fair percentage of Tory voters were actually remainers which surprised me, I assumed Tories would be largely "Leave with a Deal" voters and Labour largely Remain (just because their overall vote has been so Remain leaning, and there is a fair bit of legacy loyal Labour vote in there).

My takeaway from this set of elections is that in the country as in Parliament there is no majority for any option out of the 3 which are effectively on the table - No Deal, Leave with a deal or Remain. Remain gets closest but still a fair bit away on these numbers.

The Labour and Tory votes are the hardest ones to judge obviously, but I doubt many Hard Brexit enthusiasts are voting Labour these days at least.

Labour moving to a second refernedum stance and the Tories going to their inevitable "No Deal" positioning will make things interesting, it is going to come down to how those sets of voters split between No Deal v Remain, with Remain having a bit of a head start.

Crashy_Time

Malthusian wrote: »

58% victory for Leave in European elections + ruling party now backing no-deal to avoid losing GE votes to Brexit Party + official opposition coming out in favour of second referendum (in which Leave has a 58% head start) + unicorns = 100% Brexit won't happen.

After three years of claiming that 48% is more than 52%, Remain has now finally cracked and gone totally gonzo with this "we won the European elections" shtick.

Yep, very sad yet funny at the same time.......

Nasqueron

Malthusian wrote: »

58% victory for Leave in European elections + ruling party now backing no-deal to avoid losing GE votes to Brexit Party + official opposition coming out in favour of second referendum (in which Leave has a 58% head start) + unicorns = 100% Brexit won't happen.

After three years of claiming that 48% is more than 52%, Remain has now finally cracked and gone totally gonzo with this "we won the European elections" shtick.

Do you really believe 11.66% of the UK voting for Farage represents an endorsement of a no deal Brexit? Parties directly advocating to remain won more than no deal Brexit. QED no mandate for hard deal.


The MEP vote was a turnout of under 38%, leave does not have a head start on anything.



There's leave (e.g. EEA membership that Farage supported before the vote) and there's no deal leave (the lie that leave have spread that it was always no deal or remain)

Filo25

Not sure of the relevance of Leave v Remain anyway, given that Leavers still haven't actually managed to agree what Leave means.

If you are insistent that only a No Deal Brexit is delivering have then you have sod all mandate from these elections, as it shows a max of about 35% with that as a first option (and that may even be optimistic)

If everyone agreed May's WA reflected Leave it would already have passed Parliament, but the ERG and DUP had other ideas.

Crashy_Time

Filo25 wrote: »

Not sure of the relevance of Leave v Remain anyway, given that Leavers still haven't actually managed to agree what Leave means.

If you are insistent that only a No Deal Brexit is delivering have then you have sod all mandate from these elections, as it shows a max of about 35% with that as a first option (and that may even be optimistic)

If everyone agreed May's WA reflected Leave it would already have passed Parliament, but the ERG and DUP had other ideas.

You are obviously not a politician, and you obviously don`t think like a politician, and neither do any of the other posters trying to convince people that theses elections are somehow a victory for Remain.

Arklight

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You are obviously not a politician, and you obviously don`t think like a politician, and neither do any of the other posters trying to convince people that theses elections are somehow a victory for Remain.

If we can take anything from the election results, it is that the country is still split down the middle. My feeling is that if there were another referendum it would be a narrow win for Remain, but not much more than that.

I think there would need to be a 60% margin or so in order to seem a legitimate shift of opinion to overturn the last referendum.