Will Brexit happen?

Sailtheworld

Herzlos said:

And yet they haven't come to our rescue yet have they?

Any minute now the car makers of Germany are going to unite with the tomato growers of Spain and march on Brussels demanding the UK is given the easiest and quickest trade deal ever. 

fatbeetle

Herzlos said:

Why do you suppose that so many businesses are keen to continue importing cheap labour?

Why the assumption they are after cheap labour rather than just labour?

Because of cases like this which happened down here...

A man has been convicted by a jury of his role in helping to smuggle 29 Vietnamese people into the UK through a Cornwall harbour.

Jon Ransom, of Sheerness in Kent, had been on trial at Truro Crown Court charged with assisting unlawful immigration to an EU country.

Ransom was one of four men who were arrested and jointly charged in April following a raid of a suspicious boat at Newlyn harbour, near  Penzance.

Following a period of deliberation Ransom was convicted by the jury of his involvement.

The yacht, which was described to the jury as "in a poor condition", had 29 Vietnamese nationals on board, including women and children.

Sailtheworld

fatbeetle said:

Herzlos said:

Why do you suppose that so many businesses are keen to continue importing cheap labour?

Why the assumption they are after cheap labour rather than just labour?

Because of cases like this which happened down here...

A man has been convicted by a jury of his role in helping to smuggle 29 Vietnamese people into the UK through a Cornwall harbour.

Jon Ransom, of Sheerness in Kent, had been on trial at Truro Crown Court charged with assisting unlawful immigration to an EU country.

Ransom was one of four men who were arrested and jointly charged in April following a raid of a suspicious boat at Newlyn harbour, near  Penzance.

Following a period of deliberation Ransom was convicted by the jury of his involvement.

The yacht, which was described to the jury as "in a poor condition", had 29 Vietnamese nationals on board, including women and children.

Aren't you proving an exception rather than a rule?

Herzlos

fatbeetle said:

Herzlos said:

Why do you suppose that so many businesses are keen to continue importing cheap labour?

Why the assumption they are after cheap labour rather than just labour?

Because of cases like this which happened down here...

A man has been convicted by a jury of his role in helping to smuggle 29 Vietnamese people into the UK through a Cornwall harbour.

Jon Ransom, of Sheerness in Kent, had been on trial at Truro Crown Court charged with assisting unlawful immigration to an EU country.

Ransom was one of four men who were arrested and jointly charged in April following a raid of a suspicious boat at Newlyn harbour, near  Penzance.

Following a period of deliberation Ransom was convicted by the jury of his involvement.

The yacht, which was described to the jury as "in a poor condition", had 29 Vietnamese nationals on board, including women and children.

That's illegal isnt it? How would leaving the EU help with illegal vietnamese immigrants?

I'm certainly not saying there are people working for under minimum wage, but that's got nothing to do with EU migration and everything to do with illegal employment. We could crack down on it whether we're in the EU or not.

Backbiter

fatbeetle said:

Herzlos said:

It's not forecasts though, it's soundbites taken out of context to make it sound like the Remain campaign said we'd have an apocalypse event the morning after the vote, and WW3 would break out, then using the fact that never happened (despite noone saying it would) to infer that every other Remain claim was also a lie (despite most of it playing out).

Ok, let's go to the tape..

The upshot is that, according to George Osborne and his cronies, UK GDP would have dropped by 1.2 percent by mid 2018, says the report 

Goldman Sachs’ note, which declared the British economy would go into recession by early 2017. (Goldman had donated £500,000 to the Remain campaign.) Credit Suisse predicted a 1pc fall in GDP and Nomura a 1.3pc fall. 

A dossier published by the Treasury in the run up to the referendum said a vote to leave “would cause an immediate and profound economic shock” which would “push the UK into recession”. In reality, the UK’s GDP is now 3.3 per cent higher than it was two years ago.

The Treasury also claimed unemployment ‘would increase by around 500,000’ in the wake of a Brexit vote.

The Treasury warned that by 2018, house prices would be at least 10 per cent lower and possibly fall by up to 18 per cent.

The economic damage done by the Leave vote is considerable. Here are a few highlights, courtesy of the FT's Chris Giles:
"There's been much talk of how economists got it wrong and the predictions of some economic pain were misplaced.
To date: this is definitively untrue." (Chis Giles, FT)
1. Pre Referendum, the OBR growth forecast for the UK was 7.1% between Mar 2016 and Q3 2019
Reality: Growth was 5%
Reality: The UK was the only large economy to perform worse than the IMF forecast in Spring 2016

2. The pound collapsed against the dollar and the euro as a direct result of the Leave vote. This "squeezed household and corporate incomes (higher import prices) but did next to nothing for exports" (Chris Giles, FT)
3."the uncertainty of the economic environment [caused by the Leave vote and the Government's inability to secure a deal Parliament would vote through], damped business investment relative to other countries until very recently"
4."the combined picture of weakness compared with forecasts, weakness compared with other countries and weakness compared with history all suggests the Brexit vote has left the UK worse off than it would have been...I think a sensible estimate is about 2 per cent of GDP - the equivalent of the UK economy missing out on activity worth roughly £44bn a year (the economy is roughly £2,200 bn in 2019-20)"

5. "The forecasts made by BoE, OBR, IMF, Consensus of private forecasters after the referendum have been remarkably good.
One private sector group did very badly, however. Economists for Brexit - which now goes under the name @Econs4FreeTrade

Backbiter

See this link for the full version of the above:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1223270418888515584.html

Sailtheworld

This will all fall on deaf ears. To assess the impact of brexit a comparison is needed between the UK that left the EU and the one that didn't. This requires the input of economists (particularly for working out the not leaving scenario). Brexiteers complied with their thought leaders and willingly ignored the advice of experts.

The latest phase of this seems to involve pretending they never once argued that brexit would be positive for the economy.

bhupinder

Being an EU member does not help the UK economy at all then, that is no surprise to those who voted to leave but meantime

"Policymakers on the Continent have a reputation for dithering, prompting fears they will fail to respond to the economic damage of the coronavirus outbreak."

 nytimes.com/2020/03/09/business/europe-recession-coronavirus.html

bhupinder

Sailtheworld said:

This will all fall on deaf ears.

Quite right it should fall on deaf ears since it is complete rubbish but here is some more facts

 "The EU is facing a serious crisis. It's funding the same people who wish to wreck it"

 edition.cnn.com/2020/02/15/europe/europes-populist-nightmare-is-far-from-over-intl/index.html

bhupinder

There is more too like

"The EU is in trouble and Ursula Von der Leyen is the wrong person to rescue it"
spectator.co.uk/article/the-eu-is-in-trouble-and-ursula-von-der-leyen-is-the-wrong-person-to-rescue-it

 if you not like that read this

 "EU states look in poor health to withstand a global crisis" theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/02/eu-states-in-poor-health-to-withstand-global-crisis