Will Brexit happen?

Theophile

adindas said:

What happen to the German Car Makers...

Yes, let's look at that one with some simple imagery even brexiteers should understand.

Herzlos

Why do you suppose that so many businesses are keen to continue importing cheap labour?

Why the assumption they are after cheap labour rather than just labour?
Business owners need labour because unemployment is so low, remember?
We use the free movement to hire the best without the fuss, there are jobs locals just wont do (pretty much any graft).

If they stay in HMOs that's fine, means they aren't using up all the housing stock and driving prices up? We have a pretty low housing density here compared to a lot of the world.

Herzlos

The car image presumably doesn't take into account the fact that we'll still buy german cars and we'll even pay the tariffs. I reckon we'd still buy at least half what we did now, though there will be a lot of down branding (VW instead of Audi).

oatybits

Herzlos said:

The car image presumably doesn't take into account the fact that we'll still buy german cars and we'll even pay the tariffs. I reckon we'd still buy at least half what we did now, though there will be a lot of down branding (VW instead of Audi).

"We" who?
If you seriously think your average punter will pay thousands over the odds for a car just because it's German (when other countries already are better in reliability and design and with longer warranties) you're nuts.
The odd one or two might but otherwise nope.
Don't worry though, I'm sure Germany can cope with a hit to that particular 20% of its' economy from just one country even if it isn't coping very well with much less of a hit globally driving (forgive the pun) the country to recession.

Herzlos

We, the British public, already pay over the odds for German cars. It's a status thing and that'll only magnify if they get more expensive.

If people didn't pay more for badges, then we'd all buy Skoda instead of VW or Audi.

Also you're saying 20% hit, it's more like a 2% hit. They'll get over it.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos said:

We, the British public, already pay over the odds for German cars. It's a status thing and that'll only magnify ifbtheyvget more expensive.

If people didn't pay more for badges, then we'd all buy Skoda instead of VW or Audi.

Also you're saying 20% hit, it's more like a 2% hit. They'll get over it.

Skoda aren't built in Germany. Nor are many of German car manufacturers cheaper products. It's the drop in the quality end of the market that'll hurt them. 

Herzlos

Sure, Skoda are build elsewhere, but they are essentially a VW undearneath with a reduced price tag and have a very German build quality (you could put a WV badge on mind and you'd be convinced it was one). If people only cared about build quality there'd by no reason to buy a VW over the equivalent Skoda. Ditto Audi, though I believe Audi uses platforms earlier so they aren't quite identical (Seat uses Audi platforms a generation behind, for instance).

It's not quite as straightforward for BMW, Mercedes, etc as they don't have cheaper equivalents. But lets face it, people buying BMW and Mercedes are paying more than equivalents because of the badge. Those people are still likely to want to buy them even if they get 20% more expensive, because they aren't looking purely at list price. Some of the cost is hidden in residuals for finance deals, some people will save costs by dropping a model (Say a 535d to a 520d or a 320d).

For those changing brands, what would be comparable to a BMW 5 series or an Mercedes C class? Jag XF? Lexus LS? Everything else has a downmarket image (Mondeo, Mazda 6, Insignia, Accord, etc).

Do you have evidence that might point to us suddenly buying 0 German cars if tariffs were introduced?

Sailtheworld

oatybits said:

Herzlos said:

The car image presumably doesn't take into account the fact that we'll still buy german cars and we'll even pay the tariffs. I reckon we'd still buy at least half what we did now, though there will be a lot of down branding (VW instead of Audi).

If you seriously think your average punter will pay thousands over the odds for a car just because it's German (when other countries already are better in reliability and design and with longer warranties) you're nuts.
The odd one or two might but otherwise nope.

One chap I know has made a fortune over the last couple of decades by pointing out people could save money by buying the same things for less money. Oh what's his name?

Two decades later and people still pay a premium for stuff for a multitude of reasons and will continue to do so.

Una_Voidable

Thrugelmir said:

Herzlos said:

We, the British public, already pay over the odds for German cars. It's a status thing and that'll only magnify ifbtheyvget more expensive.

If people didn't pay more for badges, then we'd all buy Skoda instead of VW or Audi.

Also you're saying 20% hit, it's more like a 2% hit. They'll get over it.

Skoda aren't built in Germany. Nor are many of German car manufacturers cheaper products. It's the drop in the quality end of the market that'll hurt them. 

It already is.
Look at the awful sales stats and look at the job losses.

Herzlos

And yet they haven't come to our rescue yet have they?