Will Brexit happen?

Herzlos

Malthusian said:

"Forecasts can be proven wrong by observed outcomes" sounds like a pretty solid debating position to me.

Everything is priced in, always.

It's not forecasts though, it's soundbites taken out of context to make it sound like the Remain campaign said we'd have an apocalypse event the morning after the vote, and WW3 would break out, then using the fact that never happened (despite noone saying it would) to infer that every other Remain claim was also a lie (despite most of it playing out).

Sailtheworld

Malthusian said:

"Forecasts can be proven wrong by observed outcomes" sounds like a pretty solid debating position to me.

Everything is priced in, always.

That isn't the debating position though is it? You're giving Adindas too much credit.

It's as I said it was "something was observed to be wrong therefore everything must be".

adindas

_mayonnaise_ said:

1. Brexiteers 2016-2017 : 'Sunlit uplands, Brexit boost, Britain on course be an economic superpower once free of the shackles of the EU'

2. Brexiteers 2018-2019 : 'There might be short term disruption, but it will all be worth it in the long run.'

3. Brexiteers 2020-         : 'Okay, it will be a negative to the economy, but that's not the point, don't you understand??'

1. Brexiteers 2016-2017 : 'Sunlit uplands, Brexit boost, Britain on course be an economic superpower "
Who said that any link ??

2. Brexiteers 2018-2019 : 'There might be short term disruption, but it will all be worth it in the long run.'
Has this been proven wrong, Mind to mention When was the UK leaving the EU ?? Is two months a long run ??

3. Brexiteers 2020-  : 'Okay, it will be a negative to the economy, but that's not the point, don't you understand??'
What was contradictory here ??.  The main point of Brexit is to become a fully independent coastal state free to make our own law, regulation,  trade, without influence of a bloc which is well known to be one of the most protectionist regime on earth. Nonone ever argues, even the lead brexiteers that there will not be an immediate short-term economic impact of Brexit, but so is the economic impact on the EU. Also, Brexit is all about a long-term benefit to be an independent state. Please find any nobel price winner economist who ever argues  that protectionist regime is good for the economy in the long run.... In the event of no-deal brexit both parties will suffer a short term negative impact to the economy, not just the UK.
One of the point of leaving is to be an independent country. The EU is not just a protectionist but is it like mafioso type organisation. Which organisation punish their members for leaving because of democratic decision?? They know the UK has left but still wanted to get their mafioso court of justice to have jurisdiction, still want to plunder another country resources. Just look at the way they negotiate when the negotiation was led by Theresa May. Who on earth wanted to stay in a mafioso type organisation?.

Fran_Klee

_mayonnaise_ said:

Brexiteers 2016-2017 : 'Sunlit uplands, Brexit boost, Britain on course be an economic superpower once free of the shackles of the EU'

Brexiteers 2018-2019 : 'There might be short term disruption, but it will all be worth it in the long run.'

Brexiteers 2020-         : 'Okay, it will be a negative to the economy, but that's not the point, don't you understand??'

Re:Your bold, where please?
Instead of making stuff up, evidence is required.
And instead of making stuff up, maybe you can show us where our economy is more negative than our nearest similarly-sized EU neighbours like Germany, France or Italy?
Thanks in advance.

Fran_Klee

_mayonnaise_ said:

Brexiteers 2016-2017 : 'Sunlit uplands, Brexit boost, Britain on course be an economic superpower once free of the shackles of the EU'

Brexiteers 2018-2019 : 'There might be short term disruption, but it will all be worth it in the long run.'

Brexiteers 2020-         : 'Okay, it will be a negative to the economy, but that's not the point, don't you understand??'

(Part 2)
I refer you to your own post:

_mayonnaise_ said:

In the spirit of niceness and coming together, I'm doing my very best not to question Leave voters' intelligence, but if you guys keep parotting that there's no brexit impact....before we actually brexited, then I might have to review my stance.  

Now kindly explain (in the spirit of niceness and coming together of course) how you feel able to comment on these in any manner when we have not yet fully left the EU (we are in a transition period in case you need reminding) and the exact details of leaving are not yet known, meaning any consequences are not yet known either.
Again thanks in advance.



P.S.
I note that despite all warnings about the forum change you couldn't manage to do what the rest of us could and migrate your profile. Problems?

Sailtheworld

adindas said:

_mayonnaise_ said:

1. Brexiteers 2016-2017 : 'Sunlit uplands, Brexit boost, Britain on course be an economic superpower once free of the shackles of the EU'

2. Brexiteers 2018-2019 : 'There might be short term disruption, but it will all be worth it in the long run.'

3. Brexiteers 2020-         : 'Okay, it will be a negative to the economy, but that's not the point, don't you understand??'

Please find any nobel price winner economist who ever argues  that protectionist regime is good for the economy in the long run.... In the event of no-deal brexit both parties will suffer a short term negative impact to the economy, not just the UK.

Nice work. You've managed to tick quite a few logical fallacies off in just one sentence.

adindas

Sailtheworld said:

adindas said:

_mayonnaise_ said:

1. Brexiteers 2016-2017 : 'Sunlit uplands, Brexit boost, Britain on course be an economic superpower once free of the shackles of the EU'

2. Brexiteers 2018-2019 : 'There might be short term disruption, but it will all be worth it in the long run.'

3. Brexiteers 2020-         : 'Okay, it will be a negative to the economy, but that's not the point, don't you understand??'

Please find any nobel price winner economist who ever argues  that protectionist regime is good for the economy in the long run.... In the event of no-deal brexit both parties will suffer a short term negative impact to the economy, not just the UK.

Nice work. You've managed to tick quite a few logical fallacies off in just one sentence.

Indeed for those who sail the world for their entire life 

adindas

Based on the recent survey. (Published at independent four hours ago)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-brexit-latest-poll-rejoin-eu-younger-older-divide-a9384661.html
The 46-54 split in favour of staying out indicated a small swing in favour of Brexit since January, when a poll taken a fortnight before departure day found 52 per cent wanting to Remain and 48 to Leave.
Oh Dear why it takes so long to recognize the true colour of the EU, Protectionist Regime, Mafioso type organisation who will punish their member for leaving. Never mind, better late then never. Some people are too slow to learn but they are getting there finally. 

Arklight

adindas said:

Based on the recent survey. (Published at independent four hours ago)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-brexit-latest-poll-rejoin-eu-younger-older-divide-a9384661.html
The 46-54 split in favour of staying out indicated a small swing in favour of Brexit since January, when a poll taken a fortnight before departure day found 52 per cent wanting to Remain and 48 to Leave.
Oh Dear why it takes so long to recognize the true colour of the EU, Protectionist Regime, Mafioso type organisation who will punish their member for leaving. Never mind, better late then never. Some people are too slow to learn but they are getting there finally. 

The part of the article that you neglected to quote:
"Some 46 per cent of those polled by BMG for The Independent said they would like to rejoin the EU, against 54 per cent who believe the UK should stay out.

And there was a deep generational divide, with 63 per cent of 18-24 year-olds, 60 per cent of 25-34 year-olds and 51 per cent of 35-44 year-olds wanting a return to Europe, while 69 per cent of over-65s want to stay out.

While the poll suggests some Remainers have become reconciled to Brexit, there was little sign that the UK’s departure from the EU on 31 January had persuaded the majority to accept leaving.

The 46-54 split in favour of staying out indicated a small swing in favour of Brexit since January, when a poll taken a fortnight before departure day found 52 per cent wanting to Remain and 48 to Leave."

Whatever your opinions are on Brexit, the facts are that it is a contrivance of the old and inactive, visited on the heads of the young and employed.

Moe_The_Bartender

It's a source of wonder to me that the young and employed are (allegedly) so in favour of the European Disunion when free movement has resulted in so many people entering the country and depressing pay.