Will Brexit happen?

Fran_Klee

Moe_The_Bartender said:

It's a source of wonder to me that the young and employed are (allegedly) so in favour of the European Disunion when free movement has resulted in so many people entering the country and depressing pay.

EU propaganda works. 
That's why the young are (allegedly) more in favour - it pervades our society in education (as well as other areas) and this pro-EU propaganda has been about for decades, sometimes subtle and sometimes not.

Herzlos

Moe_The_Bartender said:

It's a source of wonder to me that the young and employed are (allegedly) so in favour of the European Disunion when free movement has resulted in so many people entering the country and depressing pay.

It's because european migration has had no noticable impact on pay. Legal wages can't go below the national minimum wage.

adindas

Shame on you who said the no deal brexit is not a credible Threat.

You know who you are. Do you want to apologise in this forum.

The no deal Brexit has even scared  the EU individual countries than the UK as no single EU country has prepared in the scale of what the UK has done.

Brexit deadline is 'powerful tool' for Johnson says expert

https://www.express.co.uk/videos/6126360230001/Brexit-deadline-is-powerful-tool-for-Johnson-says-expert

Think about what will happen wit Ireland, The EU fishing community, The German Car industry .

EU is not a country, any single country in the EU has a veto power that they could use anytime if their self interest is not accommodated. They are even still fighting who are going to plug the hole in the budget deficit. 

Herzlos

Did you read both lines of the article?
[quote]Economics and Game Theory expert Dr. Sebastian Moritz says that the 2020 Brexit deadline is a 'powerful tool' for Boris Johnson. He adds that it needs to be asked whether the current deadline allows for such a 'complex deal' to be made.[/quote]

Some think that threatening no deal is a valid negotiating position, but I honestly don't believe anyone would be bold enough to actually do it, or we wouldn't have extended the last 3 (?) times we absolutely weren't going to extend the deadline. We may end up out by accident.

I'm 100% behind a no deal Brexit. It's what people voted for.

fatbeetle

Herzlos said:

It's not forecasts though, it's soundbites taken out of context to make it sound like the Remain campaign said we'd have an apocalypse event the morning after the vote, and WW3 would break out, then using the fact that never happened (despite noone saying it would) to infer that every other Remain claim was also a lie (despite most of it playing out).

Ok, let's go to the tape..

The upshot is that, according to George Osborne and his cronies, UK GDP would have dropped by 1.2 percent by mid 2018, says the report 

Goldman Sachs’ note, which declared the British economy would go into recession by early 2017. (Goldman had donated £500,000 to the Remain campaign.) Credit Suisse predicted a 1pc fall in GDP and Nomura a 1.3pc fall. 

A dossier published by the Treasury in the run up to the referendum said a vote to leave “would cause an immediate and profound economic shock” which would “push the UK into recession”. In reality, the UK’s GDP is now 3.3 per cent higher than it was two years ago.

The Treasury also claimed unemployment ‘would increase by around 500,000’ in the wake of a Brexit vote.

The Treasury warned that by 2018, house prices would be at least 10 per cent lower and possibly fall by up to 18 per cent.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

It's a source of wonder to me that the young and employed are (allegedly) so in favour of the European Disunion when free movement has resulted in so many people entering the country and depressing pay.

It's because european migration has had no noticable impact on pay. Legal wages can't go below the national minimum wage.

Why can't people be paid above the NWW?  Because there's been a flood of people who are only too happy to receive this rate of pay. Often living in squalid conditions in the process. To them it's a better living than being back home in Eastern Europe. 

Herzlos

Nothing stopping them. Here's some facts: https://fullfact.org/immigration/immigration-and-jobs-labour-market-effects-immigration/

oatybits

Thrugelmir said:

Herzlos said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

It's a source of wonder to me that the young and employed are (allegedly) so in favour of the European Disunion when free movement has resulted in so many people entering the country and depressing pay.

It's because european migration has had no noticable impact on pay. Legal wages can't go below the national minimum wage.

Why can't people be paid above the NWW?  Because there's been a flood of people who are only too happy to receive this rate of pay. Often living in squalid conditions in the process. To them it's a better living than being back home in Eastern Europe. 

For years now farms have provided clapped-out caravans on-site for the migratory workers who in return think it's great. Cheap places to rest their heads = more dosh to send/take home @ the end of season.
It's like the explosion in hand car washes and "manicurists". Does Herzlos think they all live in comfy little flats paid for out of the profit of their labours? Wake up man! These often live in HMO's (that's the pleasant version BTW; the reality is often not quite so palatable) with the landlords/business owners making huge profits from the peasant workers who are made to hand over much of their income for the right to work & rent.

Anybody thinking that the above is an exaggeration really needs to open their eyes. The reality is often much, much worse.
Like the Eastern European females being used for prostitution by criminal gangs that are constantly on the move to avoid discovery, or the car wash attendants that are actually slave labourers who are again constantly on the move in order to avoid discovery by the authorities.

adindas

Herzlos said:

Did you read both lines of the article?
[quote]Economics and Game Theory expert Dr. Sebastian Moritz says that the 2020 Brexit deadline is a 'powerful tool' for Boris Johnson. He adds that it needs to be asked whether the current deadline allows for such a 'complex deal' to be made.[/quote]

Some think that threatening no deal is a valid negotiating position, but I honestly don't believe anyone would be bold enough to actually do it, or we wouldn't have extended the last 3 (?) times we absolutely weren't going to extend the deadline. We may end up out by accident.

I'm 100% behind a no deal Brexit. It's what people voted for.

Did you forget that the previous negotiation was led by Theresa May the worst Prime Minister. 

Did you forget that in the past there were a lot of MPs in Parliament who would always vote against the deal in the effort to weaken the UK negotiation hands,  so the UK would get the worst deal ever in the effort to make the people start thinking the point of having Brexit. Now they are all dead. 
 
Should  TM was in charge in this negotiation with the EU again the UK would have become subservient / Vassal state of the EU. God saves the queen in the last minute. Now with the overwhelming majority in the parliament, noone could stop Boris to go for a no deal.

The situation has even been reversed with now the EU are asking the extension rather than the UK because the No-deal Brexit will scare them more than the UK as they have not made enough preparation for it.

EU is not a country, any single country in the EU has a veto power that they could use anytime if their self interest is not accommodated. Just think what will happen with Ireland with no-deal Brexit, considering the vast majority of their import/export will depend on the UK goodwill to give them access to the UK port. What will happen to the German Car Maker's and/or the EU coastal community depending on the UK water to get their catch ?

Moe_The_Bartender

Herzlos said:

Moe_The_Bartender said:

It's a source of wonder to me that the young and employed are (allegedly) so in favour of the European Disunion when free movement has resulted in so many people entering the country and depressing pay.

It's because european migration has had no noticable impact on pay. Legal wages can't go below the national minimum wage.

Not so. Legal wages can’t go below the minimum but too many workers chasing too few jobs can prevent wages rising above it. Why do you suppose that so many businesses are keen to continue importing cheap labour?