Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Theophile

antrobus wrote: »

Seems to be going a bit better.

UK Current Account Deficit Stats Confirm UK's Exports of Goods at Record High
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/9361-uk-current-account-deficit-stats-confirm-uk-s-exports-of-goods-at-record-high

I think it might have something to do with the post-referendum weakness of GBP.

No, it doesn't seem to be going a bit better.

UK Trade Deficit Widens in Second-quarter as Currency-induced Export Boost Remains Elusive

- UK trade deficit widens sharply in second-quarter.
- Exports fall, imports rise as trade boost remains elusive.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/9685-uk-trade-deficit-widens-in-second-quarter-as-currency-induced-export-boost-remains-elusive

Herzlos

gfplux wrote: »

Correct me if I am wrong.

A very large proportion of imports to Britain from the rest of the world first dock in Rotterdam etc and then trucked to Britain.

https://www.ft.com/content/b5ee770a-ced1-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6



https://www.ft.com/content/b5ee770a-ced1-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6
QUOTE
But according to the Office for National Statistics, as much as half of the Netherlands’ annual €40bn goods exports to the UK come from third countries.

After Britain’s final break with the EU, this trade will have to go directly to the UK, or pass through two separate borders, first European and then British.

END QUOTE

As I understand it, a lot of the stuff coming through Rotterdam is because we don't have docks big enough for the largest of the container ships. So if they are diverting to us we'll either need to get smaller deliveries or build a bigger port. If we start 5 years ago it could be ready on time.

Theophile

AFF8879 wrote: »

A shift to back remain would delight Labour’s champagne socialist core in London, but more than likely ravage its support in the heartlands.

Sounds good, especially the 'champagne socialist' bit, but it's nonsense I'm afraid.

polls regularly report a strong lead for Remain among Labour voters

most seats in England, Scotland and Wales now contain a majority of voters who want to stay in the EU.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-polling-leave-remain-voters-westminster-constituencies-final-say-second-referendum-a8488001.html

gfplux

This today from Politico.eu

QUOTE
Moving day: Panasonic will move its European HQ to Amsterdam from outside of London in October to avoid potential trade barriers and tax issues linked to Brexit, according to the Nikkei Asian Review. The company’s Europe CEO, Laurent Abadie, said Japan could treat the U.K. as a tax haven and slap Panasonic with back taxes if Britain lowers its corporate rate too far.
END QUOTE

Does anyone know what this means for jobs and office rental occupancy in Bracknell?

The BBC also have the story.

Zero_Gravitas

wunferall wrote: »

All this gumph remainers are spouting about damaging UK car manufacturing in the event of a no-deal Brexit if just that, gumph according to the head of Aston Martin.
Since he's English and directly involved in car manufacture I trust his views more than those of this forum's keyboard warriors.

"Britain's car trade could benefit from no-deal Brexit, says head of Aston Martin"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/29/britains-car-trade-could-benefit-no-deal-brexit-says-head-aston/
It's paywalled but you get the gist I'm sure.

Not really. In the whole of last year, Aston Martin produced just over 5000 vehicles - or less than two week's output for Toyota in Derby... In any case, if you'd heard him on the Today programme yesterday, Andy Palmer thinks of Aston as a "Luxury Goods" company, citing the Aston Martin submarine (really) and the Aston Martin apartment block as examples.

If you'd said "Britain's luxury goods trade will probably not be much affected by brexit" then I'd be inclined to agree with you - and if you can afford to buy and run and £100,000+ car, then you're probably fairly well insulated from the effects of a no-deal brexit anyway; but for the rest of us in the real world, that's going to be cold comfort.

Zero_Gravitas

Tee_Maynott wrote: »

He wasn't talking about luxury goods.

You just won't accept somebody else's opinion - even if that person is directly involved and you're not, it seems.

How do you know I'm not?

ukcarper

gfplux wrote: »

My knowledge of customs clearance (as an importer of whole containers) is over 20 years old however.
While the paperwork was the same there was always something that could happen (Sod’s law)
The time from docking until a container left the port gates was NEVER a constant.
Present JIT requires absolutely no warehousing at the end production site. So I do not except that frequency of despatch of parts requires no warehousing.

By the way I am confident a withdrawal deal will be done. Wether that is a good withdrawal deal will depend on how the transition period ends.

I think that the time will be fairly consistent and we are talking about lorries crossing channel and although I think initially it will be bad it will settle down, There are plenty of things that can cause delays now. You are just looking for problems and them assuming they can't be solved which as it will be in everybody's interest to solve they will be.

I also think a deal will be done but as I've said before if it isn't I don't think it will be as bad as some of you make out.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

As I understand it, a lot of the stuff coming through Rotterdam is because we don't have docks big enough for the largest of the container ships. So if they are diverting to us we'll either need to get smaller deliveries or build a bigger port. If we start 5 years ago it could be ready on time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30696685

mayonnaise

wunferall wrote: »

All this gumph remainers are spouting about damaging UK car manufacturing in the event of a no-deal Brexit if just that, gumph according to the head of Aston Martin.
Since he's English and directly involved in car manufacture I trust his views more than those of this forum's keyboard warriors.

"Britain's car trade could benefit from no-deal Brexit, says head of Aston Martin"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/29/britains-car-trade-could-benefit-no-deal-brexit-says-head-aston/
It's paywalled but you get the gist I'm sure.

Yep, we get the gist.
A luxury car maker who produces about 5000 cars a year and barely exports 15% of that (that's around 750 cars ) into mainland Europe is not too bothered about the effects of Brexit.
:doh:

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

I think that the time will be fairly consistent and we are talking about lorries crossing channel and although I think initially it will be bad it will settle down, There are plenty of things that can cause delays now. You are just looking for problems and them assuming they can't be solved which as it will be in everybody's interest to solve they will be.

I also think a deal will be done but as I've said before if it isn't I don't think it will be as bad as some of you make out.

I think that's pretty much what we're saying. The first way to solve problems is to identify them, and something needs to be done to head off the initial chaos. How long do we reckon it's going to last; days/weeks/months?


I also don't think it'll be as bad as the worst case, but as they say "prepare for the worst, hope for the best". Though to be fair I think we'll come into this hopeless unprepared from a government POV (we'd need to have hired the staff and be upgrading the facilities already), and the chaos being better than expected will be due to companies mitigating it by either (a) stockpiling in advance, (b) moving operations to the mainland or (c) avoiding having stuff in transit until things calm down a bit or we know what's happening.


But then I also fully expect we'll come to some deal that involves completely free movement of people and goods, so it'll largely be a non-issue (and I suspect the government think so too, given how little they seem to care about the consequences of a no-deal brexit).