Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

buglawton

Rinoa wrote: »

Well, the pound is at 12 month lows against US dollar and falling from around 1.43 to 1.28 this past 4 months. Again against the Euro it's around 1.09 down from 1.15 a few months ago.

The point being international money markets value GBP according to how likely we are to secure a trade deal with the EU.

Today: “Sterling roared past $1.30 in short order before easing back a touch after EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier was reported as saying the UK will get a partnership ‘such as has never been with any other third country’.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-45319876

Tromking

Moby wrote: »

.....but democracy is not set in stone. Having referendum's didn't end in 2016. The more a 'no deal' brexit seems likely, the mess we are in will become more obvious and the clamour for parliament to have a say will grow. There is no majority in parliament for a 'no deal brexit'.

Again, I’m not sure that 80% of our elected representatives who were voted in on a Brexit honouring manifesto making us vote again, trumps the 2016 decision.
Thus far there is still no mandate for the ignoring of the referendum result.

wunferall

All this gumph remainers are spouting about damaging UK car manufacturing in the event of a no-deal Brexit if just that, gumph according to the head of Aston Martin.
Since he's English and directly involved in car manufacture I trust his views more than those of this forum's keyboard warriors.

"Britain's car trade could benefit from no-deal Brexit, says head of Aston Martin"

The head of Aston Martin has said Britain's car trade would benefit from a no-deal Brexit.

Andy Palmer, CEO of the car giant, said any tariff barrier that came in would "even itself out" and Britain's exports would get a boost if the pound fell in value.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/29/britains-car-trade-could-benefit-no-deal-brexit-says-head-aston/
It's paywalled but you get the gist I'm sure.

wunferall

Tromking wrote: »

Again, I’m not sure that 80% of our elected representatives who were voted in on a Brexit honouring manifesto making us vote again, trumps the 2016 decision.
Thus far there is still no mandate for the ignoring of the referendum result.

You're absolutely right, it does not trump the result of a referendum.
Nobody said more referendums either but cast votes should be respected first.
Otherwise why vote?
Heck, despite the result of the last GE lets have another vote on either Vince Cable or Nigel Farage for PM why not?
I wonder who'd win?

buglawton

I'm getting the impression that most British self-made entrepreneurs and many independent privately owned UK manufacturers back Leave, while it's the CEOs of the big companies, the ones belonging to the award-ourselves-increasing-bonuses-and-bogger-the-shareholders brigade, who back Remain.

My intuition that we'll do well post-Brexit has never been stronger.

wunferall

Theophile wrote: »

Ah yes. That weak pound which is supposed to boost our exports. We've been hearing a lot about that over the last 2 years.

In the meantime;



https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/9685-uk-trade-deficit-widens-in-second-quarter-as-currency-induced-export-boost-remains-elusive

Ahem.
As pointed out by Thrugs, the UK has been running a trade deficit for years.
Good of you to point out the country's increasing GDP growth too, up to 0.4% . :T

BTW, re: your "supposed to" exports - "UK exports remain at record high in the year to June 2018 "

Latest trade figures show demand for British goods and services is higher than ever, with exports at record high of £621 billion in the year to June 2018.
In data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today (Friday 10 August), UK exports to the world rose by £26 billion – an increase of 4.4% compared to the same time last year.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-exports-remain-at-record-high-in-the-year-to-june-2018

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

We do import almost as much from the rest of the world, that's never been in dispute. We also import lots of fruit and veg (though a lot of it is frozen or very refrigerated to increase transit life).



But neither of those is the problem or the solution. Lots of big British manufacturers rely on seamless transit of goods between the UK and the EU, and whilst they'll be able to adjust to handle it eventually, the uncertainty in the interim period will be devastating to them.
The cost to Nissan to handle the disruption to the supply chain will easily drive them onto the continent.



It's also worth noting that we've got customs staff and facilities to handle imports from the RoW in a reasonable time frame (I suspect most goods make it through in under 5 days). What we don't have, is the staff and facilities to do that with the EU stuff. If we put EU goods through with RoW we're doubling the workload but without doubling the workforce, or adding any additional capacity to any of the supply chain.

Correct me if I am wrong.

A very large proportion of imports to Britain from the rest of the world first dock in Rotterdam etc and then trucked to Britain.

https://www.ft.com/content/b5ee770a-ced1-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6



https://www.ft.com/content/b5ee770a-ced1-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6
QUOTE
But according to the Office for National Statistics, as much as half of the Netherlands’ annual €40bn goods exports to the UK come from third countries.

After Britain’s final break with the EU, this trade will have to go directly to the UK, or pass through two separate borders, first European and then British.

END QUOTE

gfplux

ukcarper wrote: »

No it's the frequency of shipping that determines how much you hold in stock not the time it takes to ship.

I suspect they would not be happy with in initial disruption but thing would settle down fairly quickly and delays become constant. There will disruption initial and it will take to to establish new supply chains so it's down to what would be the cheapest.

Even if your knowledge of supply chain management is your latest purchase from Amazon who has EVER heard of “delays become (a) constant.”

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

We import almost as much from the rest of the world as we do from the EU. It all passes through the ports very easily. Many imports will be perishable such as fruit and veg. I'm certain it doesn't take a week to clear.

Just like all remainer claims it's exaggerated out of all proportion to reality.

https://www.ft.com/content/b5ee770a-ced1-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6
QUOTE
But according to the Office for National Statistics, as much as half of the Netherlands’ annual €40bn goods exports to the UK come from third countries.

After Britain’s final break with the EU, this trade will have to go directly to the UK, or pass through two separate borders, first European and then British.
QUOTE

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

So, you believe that whilst they watch possibly 20% of their production being put at risk taking a massive hit to their profits, they'll happily rejoice at EU integrity being upheld.

Fair enough.

By the end of March 2019 they will have had nearly three years to plan alternative sources of supply and have changed where they are investing their time and MONEY.