Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-30696685

Well you learn something new every day. Thanks.

DavidJonas

Theophile wrote: »

No, it doesn't seem to be going a bit better.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/9685-uk-trade-deficit-widens-in-second-quarter-as-currency-induced-export-boost-remains-elusive

What's so bad about a trade deficit?

People obsess way too much about the plus and minus of these figures. What really matters is the volume of trade. That is a much better indicator of prosperity than the plus or minus.

Better a rich country that exports a trillion and imports a trillion and a bit than some dirt poor desert island that exports a dollar a year and imports nothing. The latter has the better trade balance.

The USA has run a trade deficit practically every year since 1976. It is overall by far the worlds most prosperous country.

cogito

DavidJonas wrote: »

What's so bad about a trade deficit?

People obsess way too much about the plus and minus of these figures. What really matters is the volume of trade. That is a much better indicator of prosperity than the plus or minus.

Better a rich country that exports a trillion and imports a trillion and a bit than some dirt poor desert island that exports a dollar a year and imports nothing. The latter has the better trade balance.

The USA has run a trade deficit practically every year since 1976. It is overall by far the worlds most prosperous country.

A trade deficit is often an indication of a prosperous country.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

I think that's pretty much what we're saying. The first way to solve problems is to identify them, and something needs to be done to head off the initial chaos. How long do we reckon it's going to last; days/weeks/months?


I also don't think it'll be as bad as the worst case, but as they say "prepare for the worst, hope for the best". Though to be fair I think we'll come into this hopeless unprepared from a government POV (we'd need to have hired the staff and be upgrading the facilities already), and the chaos being better than expected will be due to companies mitigating it by either (a) stockpiling in advance, (b) moving operations to the mainland or (c) avoiding having stuff in transit until things calm down a bit or we know what's happening.


But then I also fully expect we'll come to some deal that involves completely free movement of people and goods, so it'll largely be a non-issue (and I suspect the government think so too, given how little they seem to care about the consequences of a no-deal brexit).

I think if we go out without a deal next year there will be problems but I don't necessarily think that means the supply chain will completely collapse, there will be problems and they will take some time to resolve but it would also take time for an alternative supply chain up and running. The thing that will determine what happens is the relative times and costs.

I'm also hopeful of a deal but I don't see that involving completely free movement of good or people.

DavidJonas

cogito wrote: »

A trade deficit is often an indication of a prosperous country.

As long as the UK has a floating currency, it has nothing to fear from trade deficits.

It just means we are importing more goods than we are exporting. Which improves our standard of living. We win!

The money difference either flows back into our capital markets or adjusts the exchange rate.

If Brexit reduces trade volumes, the UK will be a less efficient and therefore poorer country. Even if our exports exceed our imports.

Some individuals and companies will benefit from even the hardest Brexit. Some are rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect. Companies that cannot compete with more efficient European companies would like nothing better than to be shielded by a wall of tariffs and regulatory divergence. They can then survive by jacking up their prices for their captive British customers.

But just because some individuals/companies will benefit does not mean people will benefit on the whole - or on average.

Munitions companies benefited from both world wars. Doesn't mean it was a desirable thing for the countries involved.

lisyloo

and for some real news

Panasonic to move Europe headquarters from UK to Amsterdam

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288

However, financial firms including Nomura, Sumitomo Mitsui and Daiwa have already said they will no longer maintain their EU headquarters in London.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

lisyloo wrote: »

and for some real news

Panasonic to move Europe headquarters from UK to Amsterdam

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288

The Japanese Govt clearly warned the UK 18 months ago that many Japanese firms would have no choice but to relocate to the EU if we left the single market.

The UK has spent the last 4 decades touting itself around the World as being inside the EU and Single Market and therefore a great place for EU headquarters of overseas companies.

As we're leaving the single market, many of those HQ's will now have to relocate to within the EU again.

What a mess....

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The Japanese Govt clearly warned the UK 18 months ago that many Japanese firms would have no choice but to relocate to the EU if we left the single market.

The UK has spent the last 4 decades touting itself around the World as being inside the EU and Single Market and therefore a great place for EU headquarters of overseas companies.

As we're leaving the single market, many of those HQ's will now have to relocate to within the EU again.

What a mess....

There are 800 Japanese firms in UK employing 100,000 people.

To put this major front page headline into context, Panasonic will move up to 20 people to Amsterdam.

Zero_Gravitas

Rinoa wrote: »

There are 800 Japanese firms in UK employing 100,000 people.

To put this major front page headline into context, Panasonic will move up to 20 people to Amsterdam.

It always amuses me the way that brexiteers want have their cake and eat it...

The boss of a car company that makes 0.3% of cars produced in the U.K. makes a statement supporting brexit and suddenly that’s a definitive statement that applies to all car manufacturing...

If however, a Japanese company leaves the U.K. and relocates 0.02% of it’s workforce then this of no significance whatsoever...

So brexiteers, eIther both are significant, or neither are significant. Please make your minds up...

Arklight

They can't make their minds up because they don't care. For the Rinoa's of this debate Brexit is an ideological issue.

The economy could nosedive after Brexit but it's a price worth paying because it will be paid by other people. It's not going to make a great deal of difference to their pensions or the standards of their retirements in the shires.

Many of them are hypocrites because if this vote had come along when they still had mortgages to pay and jobs to hold down they would have voted Remain.

Every Japanese company could relocate and tourist visas to France could be allocated by lottery, but that's a price worth paying because it's another step on the road to "making Britain great again."

Unfortunately Brexiteers version of what a Great-Great Britain would look like makes many of us want to puke.

Monocultural, insular, isolationist, a difficult unreliable ally to our closest neighbours in Europe. The UK acting as nothing more than a European Trojan horse to the Trump Project that they are so jealous of.

Thankfully practically no one under 40 wants this. Which is what is making them so angry and inspiring all this "voice of the people" blackshirt claptrap.