Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Theophile

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No harm for UK exporters with a weak £.

Ah yes. That weak pound which is supposed to boost our exports. We've been hearing a lot about that over the last 2 years.

In the meantime;

UK Trade Deficit Widens in Second-quarter as Currency-induced Export Boost Remains Elusive

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/9685-uk-trade-deficit-widens-in-second-quarter-as-currency-induced-export-boost-remains-elusive

Thrugelmir

Theophile wrote: »

Ah yes. That weak pound which is supposed to boost our exports. We've been hearing a lot about that over the last 2 years.

In the meantime;



https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/9685-uk-trade-deficit-widens-in-second-quarter-as-currency-induced-export-boost-remains-elusive

The UK has been running a trade deficit for decades. Changing the focus of the economy is a long term project. As there isn't the ability to increase output akin to turning on a tap.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

No harm for UK exporters with a weak £.

Only if they don't have to import something first.

Crashy_Time

Rinoa wrote: »

Is Theresa changing direction?

Today she's claimed a 'no deal' Brexit will not be the end of the world. She's rubbished her own chancellor's figures on how much it will cost us. And now, apparently Parliament will be denied any official analysis of a 'no deal' Brexit before they vote on it.

Is she preparing us for 'no deal? :j

Finally accepting the will of the people, and how stuffed the EU is longer term IMO.

buglawton

Rinoa wrote: »

To give you an idea of how likely that is, GBP fell to 12 month lows today.

Full steam ahead for 'no deal'.

Nope. The Euro had a good day, meanwhile £ is up against the $, substantially compared to early 2017.

Plain to see:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=2Y

cogito

Ballard wrote: »

Why on earth would any company not be shouting from the rooftops at the earliest possible moment if they thought that they could secure a better deal from themselves? Waiting until the last few weeks to voice concerns would smack of terrible management to me.

Why would they even need to shout from the rooftops? German car manufacturers have the ear of their government and will have expressed their concerns. Just because you didn't hear them shouting doesn't mean that conversations have not been taking place.

Ballard

cogito wrote: »

Why would they even need to shout from the rooftops? German car manufacturers have the ear of their government and will have expressed their concerns. Just because you didn't hear them shouting doesn't mean that conversations have not been taking place.

That’s my whole point. Project Unicorn kept banging on about how we would get a fantastic deal almost immediately because Merkel would have no choice but to listen to these manufacturers.

In those days Germany ran the EU. Nowadays apparently the union is controlled by Spain whose farmers will insist on a fantastic deal.

Ballard

Tee_Maynott wrote: »

Where?
Do show us or are you making it up?
From acknowledged official sources and not blogs BTW.

In return we can show the threats of immediate recession, hundreds of thousands of job losses, an emergency budget and worse.
These from then Prime Ministers and Chancellors of the Exchequer.

Both sides lied but trying to acknowledge or blame only one side as doing so just shows who's suffering from your "project unicorn" syndrome.

It was REPEATEDLY claimed by leavers that Merkel would be forced to listen to their big businesses and that a deal would be done and dusted very quickly. It doesn’t have to be official sources for it to have been said time and time again.

Rinoa

buglawton wrote: »

Nope. The Euro had a good day, meanwhile £ is up against the $, substantially compared to early 2017.

Plain to see:
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=2Y

Well, the pound is at 12 month lows against US dollar and falling from around 1.43 to 1.28 this past 4 months. Again against the Euro it's around 1.09 down from 1.15 a few months ago.

The point being international money markets value GBP according to how likely we are to secure a trade deal with the EU.

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

It was REPEATEDLY claimed by leavers that Merkel would be forced to listen to their big businesses and that a deal would be done and dusted very quickly. It doesn’t have to be official sources for it to have been said time and time again.

Only official sources matter. Anything else is just hearsay and valueless. A deal is only possible if all points are agreed. This has always been the case.