Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

Just In Time requires goods to turn up in a specific time frame. Crossing customs borders can take up to a week. Thus JIT cannot work across customs borders. You can use warehousing to store a weeks worth of stuff or store stuff that arrives early, bit that ain't JIT.

Prove me wrong. I dare you.

You can't stand on your head on the moon. Prove me wrong.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

You can't stand on your head on the moon. Prove me wrong.

That's a gracious way to accept defeat. There's no shame in just saying "Yeah you're right, JIT doesn't work like that"

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

Here we go again. Is the EU a country?

Who said the EU was a country?
It's a union of countries, it's right there in the name.

Tromking

Macron says ‘non’ to TM’s Chequers plan.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/emmanuel-macron-therese-may-brexit-no-deal-uk-eu-a8509731.html

The autumn is going to be interesting.

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

Just In Time requires goods to turn up in a specific time frame. Crossing customs borders can take up to a week. Thus JIT cannot work across customs borders. You can use warehousing to store a weeks worth of stuff or store stuff that arrives early, bit that ain't JIT.

Prove me wrong. I dare you.

We import almost as much from the rest of the world as we do from the EU. It all passes through the ports very easily. Many imports will be perishable such as fruit and veg. I'm certain it doesn't take a week to clear.

Just like all remainer claims it's exaggerated out of all proportion to reality.

Rinoa

Ballard wrote: »

Who said that they would no longer want to sell us cars?

The project unicorn mantra at the time of the referendum was that the CEOs of the major German car manufacturers would be ‘banging on Merkel’s door’ to ensure that a good trade deal was signed. They didn’t. From memory, and I’m prepared to be corrected here, they said that the integrity of the EU was far more important than the U.K. market.

Has it crossed your mind that Merkel told them to say that?

The EU won't accept May's plan. What we need to do now is absolutely nothing. We should just let the clock run down.

Let's see what the German car manufacturers are saying in February 2019.

Ballard

Rinoa wrote: »

Has it crossed your mind that Merkel told them to say that?

The EU won't accept May's plan. What we need to do now is absolutely nothing. We should just let the clock run down.

Let's see what the German car manufacturers are saying in February 2019.

Even if Merkel did tell them to say it, does that matter? Leavers we’re claiming that the manufacturers would be on at her for a deal and that they carried clout. A deal would be signed in record time and everything would be rosy.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

We import almost as much from the rest of the world as we do from the EU. It all passes through the ports very easily. Many imports will be perishable such as fruit and veg. I'm certain it doesn't take a week to clear.

We do import almost as much from the rest of the world, that's never been in dispute. We also import lots of fruit and veg (though a lot of it is frozen or very refrigerated to increase transit life).



But neither of those is the problem or the solution. Lots of big British manufacturers rely on seamless transit of goods between the UK and the EU, and whilst they'll be able to adjust to handle it eventually, the uncertainty in the interim period will be devastating to them.
The cost to Nissan to handle the disruption to the supply chain will easily drive them onto the continent.



It's also worth noting that we've got customs staff and facilities to handle imports from the RoW in a reasonable time frame (I suspect most goods make it through in under 5 days). What we don't have, is the staff and facilities to do that with the EU stuff. If we put EU goods through with RoW we're doubling the workload but without doubling the workforce, or adding any additional capacity to any of the supply chain.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

Let's see what the German car manufacturers are saying in February 2019.

I bet you a quid that what the German car manufacturers say in February 2019 will be exactly as what they were saying in June 2016. They aren't going to come riding to our rescue at the last moment; they just don't care about preserving the UK.


Same applies for Dutch flower or Spanish Orange producers. EU integrity is more important that a good deal with the UK.



Plus, for all this talk of a good deal, any deal we get that isn't WTO will likely include tariff free cars, oranges and flowers, whilst still potentially damaging us (with a lack of services).

Rinoa

Ballard wrote: »

Even if Merkel did tell them to say it, does that matter?

Of course it matters. It means you aren't getting a true picture of how a no deal Brexit is going to affect EU companies.

If 20% of your business is with a country about to impose 10% tariffs on your products, that's going to punch a massive hole in your profits. Will German car manufacturers still want to uphold the so called 'integrity of the EU' when that reality draws closer? I'm not so sure.