Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Theophile

Carl31 wrote: »

see this is a bit contradictory to the other arguement

We have been told to stockpile meds, food, water whatever because our lack of trade means that this stuff wont be available, our trade with Europe is going to cease and the UK to become a post apocalyptic wasteland, something like in the mad max movies

...but now the miles of truck drivers leaving the country are going to poo all over the country side

Given the first scenario is what we have been told for the last 18 months, where are these truck drivers going?

Not contradictory at all.

UK-EU trade will continue. Nobody ever said it would cease. No idea why you made that up.

Exporters and importers on both sides of the channel will fill in lots of paperwork dealing with VAT, import and export duties, health and other conformity checks, etc, etc...and spending lots of time queuing along the M20 enjoying the portaloo facilities there, and do the same on the A16 on the French side.
The stockpiling bit is to cover the unreliable nature of the new process.

buglawton

Theophile wrote: »

Not contradictory at all.

UK-EU trade will continue. Nobody ever said it would cease. No idea why you made that up.

Exporters and importers on both sides of the channel will fill in lots of paperwork dealing with VAT, import and export duties, health and other conformity checks, etc, etc...and spending lots of time queuing along the M20 enjoying the portaloo facilities there, and do the same on the A16 on the French side.
The stockpiling bit is to cover the unreliable nature of the new process.

And yet entire container ships from non-EU countries are unloaded for delivery into the UK and moved onto lorries with no fuss whatsoever. Totally mysterious, eh?

Zero_Gravitas

buglawton wrote: »

And yet entire container ships from non-EU countries are unloaded for delivery into the UK and moved onto lorries with no fuss whatsoever. Totally mysterious, eh?

Nope, not mysterious at all.

For imposts from outside the EU, the processes are already in place at the container ports to handle the necessary checks and clearance.

For the channel ferry ports and tunnel, neither the infrastructure, processes or technology are in place to cope with the delays that will be caused by the U.K. being a third party outside of the EU if there is no deal in place.

And as Theohile quite rightly pointed out, it is not that we will not be trading with the EU, but that these delays will exist that will cause the backlog.

Oh, and you still haven’t provided any answer to the question I asked you last Thursday about inter-continental JIT manufacturing...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Carl31 wrote: »

We have been told to stockpile meds, food, water whatever because our lack of trade means that this stuff wont be available, our trade with Europe is going to cease and the UK to become a post apocalyptic wasteland, something like in the mad max movies

Nobody said 'trade will cease'.

That's just Brexiteer nonsense trying to exaggerate and build a straw man argument.

The reality is that without a deal, trade will be severely hampered, incurring large extra costs and long delays, but it won't cease altogether.

Before we joined the EU there were 3000 lorries a day crossing the channel.

That number is now 12,000 to 14,000 a day.

The reality is that the infrastructure needed to process that many shipments with the same amount of customs checks that they'd get if coming from outside the single market just doesn't exist. And would take many years to build. So in the meantime there would be very big problems and long delays if no deal is done.

That is entirely consistent with the UK needing to build a 6 week stockpile of food and medicine.

buglawton

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Nope, not mysterious at all.

For imposts from outside the EU, the processes are already in place at the container ports to handle the necessary checks and clearance.

For the channel ferry ports and tunnel, neither the infrastructure, processes or technology are in place to cope with the delays that will be caused by the U.K. being a third party outside of the EU if there is no deal in place.

And as Theohile quite rightly pointed out, it is not that we will not be trading with the EU, but that these delays will exist that will cause the backlog.

Oh, and you still haven’t provided any answer to the question I asked you last Thursday about inter-continental JIT manufacturing...

So future trade with the EU countries could be a scaled up replication of our current WTO trading. Unless of course the EU puts up artificial blocks, which it might think clever until a businessman tells a eurocrat that the EU was supposed to be selling us much more than us them.

And the JIT question? My answer's there but you didn't like it very much.

Zero_Gravitas

buglawton wrote: »

So future trade with the EU countries could be a scaled up replication of our current WTO trading. Unless of course the EU puts up artificial blocks, which it might think clever until a businessman tells a eurocrat that the EU was supposed to be selling us much more than us them.

And the JIT question? My answer's there but you didn't like it very much.

Yes it could, but it’s going to take some years to build up the necessary infrastructure to support it. And that’s what is going to cause the delays and means that stockpiling becomes a necessary mitigation (oh, just like the JIT issue...)

And I can’t know if I like your answer until you actually give one. If you really think you have, then please point me to it... until then I can only presume you cannot answer.

Thrugelmir

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

I’m surprised they didn’t spin it as “brexit boost for Britain’s toilet manufacturers”.

Doubt that they are manufactured in the UK.

Even if they are. The Company is most likely foreign owned.

buglawton

The fact that the UK will need to put effort into adapting to have more diversified trade partners, and them competing for our labour and our consumers on an equal footing in future, is rather obvious. Like jumping into a swimming pool there'll be an initial shock. But come in, the water's lovely!

With China, Japan, Korea, Mexico and the USA all doing cross border Just in Time manufacturing among themselves, with companies like VW and Toyota dealing with and between all of them, I'm most surprised you need need to be led by the nose to examples of JIT outside of the EU trade bloc.

However your question did lead me into some interesting reading in the Economist about JIT supply chains, with an example where an EU trade dispute with China (it got resolved quite quickly) caused disruption, that being one among many other examples where extreme weather and labour disputes were just as large a factor.

Zero_Gravitas

buglawton wrote: »

The fact that the UK will need to put effort into adapting to have more diversified trade partners, and them competing for our labour and our consumers on an equal footing in future, is rather obvious. Like jumping into a swimming pool there'll be an initial shock. But come in, the water's lovely!

With China, Japan, Korea, Mexico and the USA all doing cross border Just in Time manufacturing among themselves, with companies like VW and Toyota dealing with and between all of them, I'm most surprised you need need to be led by the nose to examples of JIT outside of the EU trade bloc.

However your question did lead me into some interesting reading in the Economist about JIT supply chains, with an example where an EU trade dispute with China (it got resolved quite quickly) caused disruption, that being one among many other examples where extreme weather and labour disputes were just as large a factor.

Sigh. So once again you have failed to answer the question, which was:

“Please can you provide some actual, real examples of JIT supply chains operating across continents in the way that you describe, and how these examples have mitigated the risks involved?”

If it helps, then having storage warehouses local to the manufacturing plant, and calling off from those on a JIT basis is not a JIT supply chain. I’m looking for the examples that you say exist where the JIT is intercontinental from the OEM manufacturing facility to the final assembly plant, with no intermediate storage or holding.

This a bit like brexit in miniature - I’m attempting to hold a brexiteer to account for some statement that they have made, and they have utterly failed to provide any evidence or justification...

cogito

Arklight wrote: »

People like to blame their problems on outside forces. For reasons I find hard to fathom, some of the least well off people in (predominantly) England, repeatedly vote Tory and read the right wing press. A political party that was established to represent the landed gentry and a media propaganda arm that hates the working class.

One could blame the Tories, their years of austerity aimed squarely at the least well off, and their hateful, hate-filled newspapers for your problems. Or one can blame foreigners and the EU, vote for privileged right wing billionaires, and carry on disappearing up ones own backside.

And some of the most well off, especially if they live in the south east, vote for a party that was formed to represent the workers whom they largely disdain and read the Guardian. I find that hard to fathom too.