Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Lornapink

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Nobody said 'trade will cease'.

That's just Brexiteer nonsense trying to exaggerate and build a straw man argument.

The reality is that without a deal, trade will be severely hampered, incurring large extra costs and long delays, but it won't cease altogether.

Before we joined the EU there were 3000 lorries a day crossing the channel.

That number is now 12,000 to 14,000 a day.

The reality is that the infrastructure needed to process that many shipments with the same amount of customs checks that they'd get if coming from outside the single market just doesn't exist. And would take many years to build. So in the meantime there would be very big problems and long delays if no deal is done.

That is entirely consistent with the UK needing to build a 6 week stockpile of food and medicine.

From the get-go Remainers said we'd never get a deal, or at best some crumbs from the table that would take 10 years to negotiate. Of course a good deal will be done, the core EU exporters such as Spanish fruit n veg producers have too much at stake.


Brexiteers applied simple common sense that informed them Brexit was a no-brainer. Remainers let infantile scare stories and numpty forecasts cloud their thinking.

Ballard

Lornapink wrote: »

From the get-go Remainers said we'd never get a deal, or at best some crumbs from the table that would take 10 years to negotiate. Of course a good deal will be done, the core EU exporters such as Spanish fruit n veg producers have too much at stake.


Brexiteers applied simple common sense that informed them Brexit was a no-brainer. Remainers let infantile scare stories and numpty forecasts cloud their thinking.

Initially it was the German car manufacturers who were going to ensure that a good deal was little more than a formality. As it turned out they all said that they were more interested in the EU than the U.K. Attention then turned to the Spanish who were going to insist on a good deal.

Perhaps they will push to get a great deal for us but going on the track record of who’s going to push for a deal I’m not getting my hopes too high.

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

Initially it was the German car manufacturers who were going to ensure that a good deal was little more than a formality. As it turned out they all said that they were more interested in the EU than the U.K.

I doubt that they would wish to upset Brussels too much given they are currently under investigation.

Lornapink

IEA launches a series of ‘no deal’ Brexit Fear-Checkers to help separate Project Fear from Project Fact.


The opening two Fear-Checkers (published today) cover aviation and data roaming, focusing on the claims that after Brexit planes won’t fly and mobile phone bills will soar for those visiting the EU.


https://iea.org.uk/media/iea-launches-series-of-no-deal-fear-checkers/

Lornapink

Ballard wrote: »

Initially it was the German car manufacturers who were going to ensure that a good deal was little more than a formality. As it turned out they all said that they were more interested in the EU than the U.K.

What do their actions say?
They're heavily invested in UK advertising.

Would you as a company Director invest in a market you are no longer interested in?

https://www.ft.com/content/c06b1762-761d-11e8-b326-75a27d27ea5f

The outlook for carmakers has worsened dramatically since the UK’s EU referendum
Why German industry should fear a no deal Brexit

Ballard

Lornapink wrote: »

What do their actions say?
They're heavily invested in UK advertising.

Would you as a company Director invest in a market you are no longer interested in?

https://www.ft.com/content/c06b1762-761d-11e8-b326-75a27d27ea5f

The outlook for carmakers has worsened dramatically since the UK’s EU referendum
Why German industry should fear a no deal Brexit

Who said that they would no longer want to sell us cars?

The project unicorn mantra at the time of the referendum was that the CEOs of the major German car manufacturers would be ‘banging on Merkel’s door’ to ensure that a good trade deal was signed. They didn’t. From memory, and I’m prepared to be corrected here, they said that the integrity of the EU was far more important than the U.K. market.

buglawton

The poster Remainer boy in car manufacturing is the Mini crankshaft that crosses the Channel up to 4 times before reaching the customer.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu
How can cars continue to be made in Britain without a customs union? They ask.

One can certainly imagine EU trade intransigence playing merry hell with this BMW-organised supply chain. It did occur to me that parts travelling a byzantine route is not any kind of just-in-time manufacturing common sense. It's something that's come about due to the incredibly low cost of modern logistics.

So I have no fear that UK customers will still be able to buy great cars if the UK tilts it's car making partnerships to be more global.

As an aside, electric cars don't need a crankshaft.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

Looks like we have to go back to my post #662 that you objected to, calling for more evidence:
Correct, JIT (along with a number of othe excellent industrial practices) was invented by the Japanese and has been adopted by most industrialised countries, most of which strangely enough are thriving outside of the EU.
And only since that post have you introduced first the condition "show me an intercontinental example" and just today "where no warehousing is needed".
I think you sensed you were going to lose this one quite a while back.

Just In Time requires goods to turn up in a specific time frame. Crossing customs borders can take up to a week. Thus JIT cannot work across customs borders. You can use warehousing to store a weeks worth of stuff or store stuff that arrives early, bit that ain't JIT.

Prove me wrong. I dare you.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

The poster Remainer boy in car manufacturing is the Mini crankshaft that crosses the Channel up to 4 times before reaching the customer.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/03/brexit-uk-car-industry-mini-britain-eu
How can cars continue to be made in Britain without a customs union? They ask.

One can certainly imagine EU trade intransigence playing merry hell with this BMW-organised supply chain. It did occur to me that parts travelling a byzantine route is not any kind of just-in-time manufacturing common sense. It's something that's come about due to the incredibly low cost of modern logistics.

So I have no fear that UK customers will still be able to buy great cars if the UK tilts it's car making partnerships to be more global.

As an aside, electric cars don't need a crankshaft.

I agree it seems unnecessary to cross the channel 4 times.

Please explain the EUs intransigence in expecting a 3rd country to have the same rules as a 3rd country?

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

I agree it seems unnecessary to cross the channel 4 times.

Please explain the EUs intransigence in expecting a 3rd country to have the same rules as a 3rd country?

Here we go again. Is the EU a country?