Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

gfplux

wunferall wrote: »

Some people have been saying just that for a long time, suggesting that the government's strategy was one of acceptance that the EU would be their usual domineering coercive selves.
It does now look like that might well have been the strategy all along.

Add to that mix the pro-EU lies, propaganda and obstruction from some remainers and viola!
The EU see what they think is indecision and take a harder stance, forcing the country to choose between an unpalatable deal or a clean break.

It looks to me like remainers have succeeded in forcing what they say they didn't want by their actions; a WTO Brexit.
:T
I am willing to lay odds that not one remain poster here accepts the above despite it now being patently obvious.

As a remainer I fully except that the British negotiating position has been dreadful and chaotic.
The reason for that is numerous. It has to do with the starting position, the relative strengths of the negotiating party’s, the unity of the the party’s etc etc.
If you as a Brexiter absolve all other party’s from responsibility for where Britain is today and lay it at the door of Remainers, well thank you.
However your belief in the power of the Remain (minority) camp is touching but sadly misplaced.

However as all or most Brexiters had blamed the EU BEFORE the referendum for all Britains ills it will be no surprise to anyone that after Brexit the EU will continue to be blamed for the sunny uplands becoming cloudy, wet and miserable.

Arklight

gfplux wrote: »

As a remainer I fully except that the British negotiating position has been dreadful and chaotic.
The reason for that is numerous. It has to do with the starting position, the relative strengths of the negotiating party’s, the unity of the the party’s etc etc.
If you as a remainer absolve all other party’s from responsibility for where Britain is today at the door of Remainers, well thank you.
However your belief in the power of the Remain (minority) camp is touching but sadly misplaced.

However as all or most Brexiters had blamed the EU BEFORE the referendum for all Britains ills it will be no surprise to anyone that after Brexit the EU will continue to be blamed for the sunny uplands becoming cloudy, wet and miserable.

Exactly. Brexit is an ongoing narrative of disgruntled victim-hood. Foreigners were to blame for everything two years ago. They're to blame for everything now, and they'll be to blame for everything in the future.

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

Ok it is Chritmas Eve, but are your numbers correct.
Is the 2,300,000 cars a number of cars imported IN TO the UK. If it is does that include cars imported from NON EU countrys.

IF many of those cars cost 10% more in the UK what happens to the price of cars assembled in the UK and exported to the EU..

Sorry about all that but I think it is much more complicated than the above.

Many cars assembled in the UK that are exported to the EU include EU sourced parts
Many cars assembled in the EU that are exported to the UK include UK sourced parts

That definitely was the case in July 2016. I imagine there has been some change since then.

Yes. The figures are correct.

https://www.acea.be/news/article/automotive-trade-between-the-united-kingdom-and-its-main-eu-partners

We'll buy fewer Golfs, Polos, Renault Fiat and buy the equivalent Toyota, Nissan, Mini, Honda.

You make a good point on parts. We sell the EU £4Bn - they sell us £12Bn. And of course there is no reason why far more can't be made in the UK - which is what will happen after March 29.

OK it'll not happen overnight, but it will happen.

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

Yes. The figures are correct.

https://www.acea.be/news/article/automotive-trade-between-the-united-kingdom-and-its-main-eu-partners

We'll buy fewer Golfs, Polos, Renault Fiat and buy the equivalent Toyota, Nissan, Mini, Honda.

You make a good point on parts. We sell the EU £4Bn - they sell us £12Bn. And of course there is no reason why far more can't be made in the UK - which is what will happen after March 29.

OK it'll not happen overnight, but it will happen.

This is a very complex issue, one of hundreds if not thousands that will have to be resolved as Brexit unfolds.
I do have a problem with your phrase “will happen”
Anyone engaged in a supply chain knows that planning is almost everything.
If (a pure uninformed guess) seatbelts are manufactured in two sites in the EU27 for vehicle production in the EU28 now surely 30 months after the referendum a British manufacturer (perhaps a subsidiary of a global player) of seatbelts should be beyond the product testing, specification, quantity discussion, contract writing, etc etc and NOW be delivering or just about to, product to a vehicle assembly plant in the UK.
The Industry have been very secretive and tight lipped about this.
Obviously no poster on this thread has an insight into this except as I have said before they may have had to sign a NDA.

Of course “they” may have been relying on the transition period but that frankly is a gamble I would be surprised if any CEO would take with his job or against the advise of his board or shareholders..

buglawton

Rinoa wrote: »

Yes. The figures are correct.

https://www.acea.be/news/article/automotive-trade-between-the-united-kingdom-and-its-main-eu-partners

We'll buy fewer Golfs, Polos, Renault Fiat and buy the equivalent Toyota, Nissan, Mini, Honda.

You make a good point on parts. We sell the EU £4Bn - they sell us £12Bn. And of course there is no reason why far more can't be made in the UK - which is what will happen after March 29.

OK it'll not happen overnight, but it will happen.

Well, maybe not BMW Minis...
It's entirely in the gift of the EU 27 to step right forward and offer JIT-friendly deals and processes. As the big net exporter in our direction, it's even to their large benefit.

However, for this moment trade flow is being used as a hostage in negotiations by the EU 27 on the assumption that the ignorant 'island apes' will fall for it.

That's why I say, let's call that bluff and move straight to the next point.

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

This is a very complex issue, one of hundreds if not thousands that will have to be resolved as Brexit unfolds.
I do have a problem with your phrase “will happen”
Anyone engaged in a supply chain knows that planning is almost everything.
If (a pure uninformed guess) seatbelts are manufactured in two sites in the EU27 for vehicle production in the EU28 now surely 30 months after the referendum a British manufacturer (perhaps a subsidiary of a global player) of seatbelts should be beyond the product testing, specification, quantity discussion, contract writing, etc etc and NOW be delivering or just about to, product to a vehicle assembly plant in the UK.
The Industry have been very secretive and tight lipped about this.
Obviously no poster on this thread has an insight into this except as I have said before they may have had to sign a NDA.

Of course “they” may have been relying on the transition period but that frankly is a gamble I would be surprised if any CEO would take with his job or against the advise of his board or shareholders..

You're over complicating.

Companies such as Honda in the UK export to 70 countries around the world. Rules and regulations differ in each market and regularly have to be updated. Currently they manufacture over 500 model variants to meet regulations and local needs.

It's simply not a problem.

Arklight

buglawton wrote: »

Well, maybe not BMW Minis...
It's entirely in the gift of the EU 27 to step right forward and offer JIT-friendly deals and processes. As the big net exporter in our direction, it's even to their large benefit.

However, for this moment trade flow is being used as a hostage in negotiations by the EU 27 on the assumption that the ignorant 'island apes' will fall for it.

That's why I say, let's call that bluff and move straight to the next point.

OK, great idea. But lets introduce a policy whereby every Brexit voting pensioner has their pension proportionately reduced to cover benefits for every working age person who loses their job thanks to this nonsense.

Not so keen? No. Didn't think so.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

Well, maybe not BMW Minis...
It's entirely in the gift of the EU 27 to step right forward and offer JIT-friendly deals and processes. As the big net exporter in our direction, it's even to their large benefit.

However, for this moment trade flow is being used as a hostage in negotiations by the EU 27 on the assumption that the ignorant 'island apes' will fall for it.

That's why I say, let's call that bluff and move straight to the next point.

Trade flow isn't being held hostage, they are just unwilling to change their rules for the benefit of a 3rd party.

Any special deal they give us will need to be offered to everyone else.

Herzlos

A_Pandiculation wrote: »

Try reading the relevant posts and then do your own research if it's still not clear enough for you. It's not difficult to find out if you really want to.
:xmassign:

Sorry, I thought you had some first hand experience of the crossing and would be willing to report on the real situation on the ground, so to speak. Since you clearly know nothing about it I'll refer to Google.

BobQ

wunferall wrote: »

The EU see what they think is indecision and take a harder stance, forcing the country to choose between an unpalatable deal or a clean break.

It looks to me like remainers have succeeded in forcing what they say they didn't want by their actions; a WTO Brexit.
:T
I am willing to lay odds that not one remain poster here accepts the above despite it now being patently obvious.

The Government has a strategy to do this? Nah. They have blundered into this by a mixture of infighting and incompetence.

Your last sentence just illustrates that if you make absurd claims it is very easy to win bets against them.

The ironies I see is that those that voted for Brexit predominantly the old and the poor will be the ones to suffer the consequences; and while Remaining would be undemocratic, Brexit on WTO terms was only supported by a minority.