Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Apodemus

Last night I sat down and read the withdrawal agreement. At 584 pages it took a while, and I must confess there were some parts I skimmed through. But if you are used to reading EU regulations you recognise the bits to concentrate on.

Listening to the press, the debate in Parliament and the public comments in various places, I begin to wonder if anyone else has actually read and understood it?

It is a very credible and technocratic solution to the current crisis. It provides the certainty needed to get through the next stage in the separation. There are some key elements introduced that (if taken forward positively) could lead on to the development of a new form of relationship between the EU and UK. The fact that there has been little or no mention in Parliament or the Press of any of this makes me despair for the quality of debate and the lack of interest in the real issues at hand.

Thrugelmir

melanzana wrote: »

But Trump and Putin actually WANT the UK to leave the EU.

Pincer movement you see and trade deals with chlorinated chicken and a US/UK army, and you obviously know Putin cannot wait to see the end of the EU.

Italy will never leave the EU. In fairness they were stuck with lots of illegal migrants on the boats, but they sorted that out. I know there is more to it than that, but I don't want to write a book either!

There is no country/entity that is perfect, but after 11/11 this year, I thought to myself, hopefully never again, better to be inside the tent now in these troubled times. There is safety in numbers. An isolated island like Britain can be picked off quite quickly by Trump and Putin. Why does no one see this?

Honestly the world has gone totally mad

As soon as Hammond suggested taxing US digital companies the tone changed.

If Brussels fines Italy for it's budget indiscretions it's the people that will suffer. Until FOM (etc) became a major issue. The UK would never have of considering leaving the EU.

If there's a hard Brexit. Then it will be Eire that's going to come straight into the firing line. Going to ripple far and wide.

Trump is a protectionist. Compared to previous US Presidents doesn't see the US as the guardian of the world. Plenty of problems to fix at home.

melanzana

Apodemus wrote: »

Last night I sat down and read the withdrawal agreement. At 584 pages it took a while, and I must confess there were some parts I skimmed through. But if you are used to reading EU regulations you recognise the bits to concentrate on.

Listening to the press, the debate in Parliament and the public comments in various places, I begin to wonder if anyone else has actually read and understood it?

It is a very credible and technocratic solution to the current crisis. It provides the certainty needed to get through the next stage in the separation. There are some key elements introduced that (if taken forward positively) could lead on to the development of a new form of relationship between the EU and UK. The fact that there has been little or no mention in Parliament or the Press of any of this makes me despair for the quality of debate and the lack of interest in the real issues at hand.

You are absolutely correct. I reckon no one in Government read it in full either, just got a precis from the Civil Servants who actually negotiated and drafted it on both sides. And then the Cabinet zoomed in on the bits they didn't like without looking at the big picture. As for the Press, I won't go there.

It is a hefty document alright. I read it, and like yourself skimmed the bits of legalese and concentrated on the important bits.

I thought it was very well constructed and covered everything necessary.

Can any better agreement be drafted now? no.

So it is really a Hard Brexit, no Brexit, or Agreement.

If only those opposed could give us their alternative with facts and figures instead of soundbytes. It is a huge issue for all of us.

We are living through future historians' analyses now. They will be using today's sources.

But those in Government today really need to see the wood from the trees right now too and act in the best interests of the people, not just a few mouthies with nothing to say.

Matt_L

melanzana wrote: »

Such drama and theatrics because a strange cabal of 80 or so ERG (Hard Brexit Tories) are calling the shots (or think they are).

I am very sure they have the fate and quality of life of everyone in the UK within their thinking.

There has been absolutely NO counter plan offered by either the ERG or Brexit leaning Tories, or by Labour. We live in strange times when the opposition is just as bad as some in Government.

It is just a drama fest now. I am totally disgusted at their bullying of TM with no counter argument or plan that would be better.

But UK is the laughing stock of the world now. Cannot fight their way out of a paper bag.

I don't believe the ERG are calling the shots, I believe they simply want what we voted for in the referendum and then what was written and promised in the Tory manifesto which was to leave the SM and CU...

Thrugelmir

melanzana wrote: »

You are absolutely correct. I reckon no one in Government read it in full either, just got a precis from the Civil Servants who actually negotiated and drafted it on both sides. And then the Cabinet zoomed in on the bits they didn't like without looking at the big picture. As for the Press, I won't go there.

Cabinet knew the contents. The document has been continually drafted as the process unfolded.

melanzana

Matt_L wrote: »

I don't believe the ERG are calling the shots, I believe they simply want what we voted for in the referendum and then what was written and promised in the Tory manifesto which was to leave the SM and CU...

I respectfully think they are though. Even though they have no clue what the ramifications of leaving the CU and SM mean for the UK.

Well they haven't spelled it out for anyone apart from one liners.

Jacob Rees Mogg moved his investment vehicle to Dublin just in case. He really wants it every way.

For all their private education in Eton and the likes, many of the ERG are totally clueless. Betting on the pound and so on and hoping that by leaving they might escape new taxation laws and the like.

I'm sorry now, and I do realise it is not only the ERG that are opposed to the Agreement, but they are the instigators of most of the bullying. Bullying to me means denigrating someone without any reason. Just because you can.

melanzana

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Cabinet knew the contents. The document has been continually drafted as the process unfolded.

Fair enough, but I doubt they read every line, that's what PPS are for, to do the grunt work and provide the important summaries.

I wonder why Raab resigned today then if he knew already.

Matt_L

melanzana wrote: »

I respectfully think they are though. Even though they have no clue what the ramifications of leaving the CU and SM mean for the UK.

Well they haven't spelled it out for anyone apart from one liners.

Jacob Rees Mogg moved his investment vehicle to Dublin just in case. He really wants it every way.

For all their private education in Eton and the likes, many of the ERG are totally clueless. Betting on the pound and so on and hoping that by leaving they might escape new taxation laws and the like.

I'm sorry now, and I do realise it is not only the ERG that are opposed to the Agreement, but they are the instigators of most of the bullying. Bullying to me means denigrating someone without any reason. Just because you can.

I see, so to sum up..

The country votes in record numbers to leave the EU, (SM, CU)
The Tory Government make explicitly clear in their manifesto that we shall leave the EU, (SM, CU)

A group of Tories and Labour ministers insist that this mandate is carried out only to be called extremists and bullies....

You must really hate democracy....

melanzana

Matt_L wrote: »

I see, so to sum up..

The country votes in record numbers to leave the EU, (SM, CU)
The Tory Government make explicitly clear in their manifesto that we shall leave the EU, (SM, CU)

A group of Tories and Labour ministers insist that this mandate is carried out only to be called extremists and bullies....

You must really hate democracy....

The really clever people are those who have analysed what this policy will actually mean.

The rest of them are just pretending to be supporting democracy for their own ends. Sure as heck the majority of people will not benefit.

If you know otherwise, please tell, because no one else has

Wenlock

melanzana wrote: »

Do you have a link for that, or are you on a wind up?

Anyway it won't solve the NI Border issue though. And it is not very clever either. WTO tariffs will kill the country stone dead. UK cannot impose low tariffs under WTO without offering the same deal to all in WTO under the Favoured Nation Clause.

EU will not accept it either, and I don't blame them. It's either in under the Agreement or fully out. No half baked schemes.

Canada deals and the like will take ten years minimum also. I know you would like this, but have you or the Rees Mogg person thought it through at all. Unlikely, since nothing has emerged up to now after nearly three years. :rotfl:

No link - just heard him being interviewed on one of the news channels today when he was announcing that he would send his letter of no confidence in Mrs May to the 1922 committee. Other leavers have made similar comments in radio or TV interviews in recent days.

I don’t believe there is any genuine issue with the border. The UK don’t intend to build infrastructure and both the ROI and the EU have previously said they wouldn’t even in the event of a no deal. But if they did after the event then so be it. You can’t keep the UK permanently tied to the EU simply to avoid a slim possibility of a geriatric former terrorist throwing a stone at a camera.

Don’t know why you think tariffs would kill the country stone dead. In many cases the tariffs are more trivial than minor variations in the value of the £. We trade with many nations on WTO terms with no problem. The high WTO tariffs apply mostly to things like meat and dairy as far as I am aware. As a net importer of most products we would have no need to export in bulk. Most of our produce would be sold in the UK. I accept that producers of niche products would suffer.

The UK would gain from the tariffs given the trade deficit. You are right that we have to treat all countries equally but in a relatively short period I suspect we could do FTA deals with NZ and Australia etc. By the time any FTA with The EU was agreed we would probably be buying a fraction of the current level of their products. I’ve heard that even cars and other products are produced in non EU countries these days - who knew?

If the EU won’t entertain an implementation period in this scenario then so be it. No big deal. We would have a spare £39 billion available to boost the economy as we see fit.