Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

buglawton

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Try Hamburg then. Makes London traffic look quick on a bad day.

Really? I remember how astonishing the quickly the Ryanair bus exited Hamburg as it traversed miles of urban streets that had been given long continuous one-way routing. The Green Wave technology meant the bus rarely paused for lights but kept a steady unobstructed pace.

Never seen anything nearly as well planned around London.

buglawton

kabayiri wrote: »

Actually, this Chinese government has lifted millions of Chinese people out of poverty. There is always a downside, of course, but it's undeniable there is also a burgeoning middle class in China now.

They are also buying significant assets (where they can), in Africa and South America, alongside sponsorship of some of the research units affiliated to our Universities.

I'm not saying it's a plan we mirror, but I do acknowledge it's a clear plan.

We will not be able to ignore a more powerful China in the future. I think we need to understand their plans and adjust ours to profit from a changing power base in the world.

Imagine that as a social-economic experiment, one typical but poor province of China had been made a special zone, HK-like, and allowed to run it's own democratic social economy (Model A). While the rest of China was allowed to progress under the well-known market-economy-dictatorship model that has resulted in the "Chinese government has lifted millions of Chinese people out of poverty" cliche (Model .

Next you measure their relative progress. If model A and B had ended neck and neck with progress on poverty, what would that prove? That any sizeable democratic group of people can lift themselves out of poverty, no need for a special Chinese situation/dictatorship.

The deciding factor IMO was that a market economy was allowed to develop, as exists in almost any corner of the world anyway.

Similarly, the UK doesn't need to be part of an EU bloc to thrive.

Thrugelmir

buglawton wrote: »

Really?

Container lorries don't catch Ryanair buses to the airport though.

Hamburg is a large City. Start closer to the Airbus factory and it's a different matter to traverse the City. Given the abundance of canals and water generally.

buglawton

kabayiri wrote: »

This is indeed true, but I do think we could be smarter on our long term spending.

I was looking at the tunneling plans for HS2, and there is a lot buried cost there (scuse the pun!).

Will HS2 offer ticket prices to encourage the masses to access work? I'm not sure.

No, the plan is to follow Hollands HS rail lead and run it 85% empty.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/9000166/High-speed-rail-A-250m-lesson-for-Britains-rail-enthusiasts.html

Their little toy cost £7BN and at last count was losing £0.3M per day.

Moby

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/30/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-lengthy-uk-recession-warns-sp

The S&P report said:

Unemployment would rise from current all-time low of 4% to 7.4% by 2020 – a rate last seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis;
house prices would likely fall by 10% over two years;
household incomes would be £2,700 lower a year after leaving without a deal;
inflation would rise, peaking at 4.7% in mid-2019;
London office prices could fall by 20% over two to three years, similar to the decline following the 2008 financial crash.

Moby

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/demand-for-irish-passports-surges-as-brexit-nears-37477366.html

Demand for Irish passports surges as Brexit nears
Almost as many applications were received in the first half of 2018 as in the whole of 2015, figures show. Figures released to Fine Gael’s Neale Richmond, chairman of the Brexit committee in the Irish senate, showed there were almost 45,000 applications in the first half of 2018.

Mr Richmond suggested that the “looming disaster of Brexit” was prompting eligible Britons to reconnect with their Irish heritage

.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/demand-for-irish-passports-surges-as-brexit-nears-37477366.html

.

Looming disaster for Ireland, I think he means.

cogito

Moby wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/30/no-deal-brexit-would-trigger-lengthy-uk-recession-warns-sp

Remind me. Just how well is the eurozone doing? You seem to prefer linking to articles from the Graun, so here's another:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/30/eurozone-growth-slumps-to-lowest-level-in-over-four-years

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Looming disaster for Ireland, I think he means.

How do you come to that conclusion?

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Actually, this Chinese government has lifted millions of Chinese people out of poverty. There is always a downside, of course, but it's undeniable there is also a burgeoning middle class in China now.

They are also buying significant assets (where they can), in Africa and South America, alongside sponsorship of some of the research units affiliated to our Universities.

I'm not saying it's a plan we mirror, but I do acknowledge it's a clear plan.

We will not be able to ignore a more powerful China in the future. I think we need to understand their plans and adjust ours to profit from a changing power base in the world.

They have also been buying up lots of new build apartments in London. This was in 2015/2016 and I assume has excelerated with a weaker pound.