Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Joan_number_1_2

Herzlos wrote: »

How so? I don't see it.


This is meant to be a debate and not about point scoring anyway.

Who's "point scoring" or are you just miffed at being proven wrong ?
You just posted that Turkey CAN make their own trade deals as I said, and then went further & quoted that they can on areas not covered by their customs union.
Do you want reminding of what you originally said which I correctly said was wrong?

A customs union more or less insists we can't make our own deals. That's just how they work.

Now since we have no idea whether or not we will even see an EU/UK customs union much less what such a customs union might look like, who is to say that we can't be in a custom union with the condition that the UK is free to negotiate what it wants?

You can't make up your own imaginary scenario and say "this will happen" because bluntly you don't know.
What we do know for certain is that Turkey can do it's own deals if it wants to but there is absolutely nothing to suggest that the UK couldn't have greater freedom to make deals if it ever reaches that stage.

Thrugelmir

andrewf75 wrote: »

The relevance is simply that politics is increasingly polarised and people are no longer afraid to make anti-establishment choices especially when there isn't really a safe centre ground option.

That's what Facebook and Twitter may suggest. When push comes to shove. The middle ground will always use common sense.

buglawton

Priceless!

Acknowledgement to the Daily Telegraph:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/30/telegraph-cartoons-october-2018/davey-cartoon-october-23/

Herzlos

Joan_number_1 wrote: »

You just posted that Turkey CAN make their own trade deals as I said, and then went further & quoted that they can on areas not covered by their customs union.
Do you want reminding of what you originally said which I correctly said was wrong?

OK. You win, I guess.

Now since we have no idea whether or not we will even see an EU/UK customs union much less what such a customs union might look like, who is to say that we can't be in a custom union with the condition that the UK is free to negotiate what it wants?

If we get a customs union (which businesses are pressing for and is likely the only way we'll keep a car industry), then we won't be able to negotiate any trade deals for anything that's covered with the customs union. I may be incorrect but I assume the customs union with the EU will cover almost everything. Can you name any segments that we'd want to stay out of the customs union to allow us to form FTAs? Chicken and Beef?

What we do know for certain is that Turkey can do it's own deals if it wants to but there is absolutely nothing to suggest that the UK couldn't have greater freedom to make deals if it ever reaches that stage.

Turkey can make it's own trade deals with some significant caveats, and if we form a similar customs union we'll get similar restrictions. If we don't, the Turkey will be asking for the same as us; and we're not special.


So we're back to the same choices from a page ago: Customs Union or FTA?

Moby

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-young-people-no-deal-lose-earnings-john-major-eu-a8601666.html

Young people will lose as much as £108,000 in earnings by 2050 if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal, according to new research laying bare the full cost of Brexit for the generation that opposed it.

The huge bill – more than three times the cost of deposit on a first home – shows the young will “lose the most” from leaving the EU, campaigners said.

Compiled by an Oxford economist, it says young people will be up to £32,000 worse off even under a “soft Brexit”, because every exit scenario will make the UK poorer.

Moby

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-wto/uk-signals-failure-of-bid-for-quick-brexit-transition-at-wto-idUKKCN1MZ2CX

Britain signaled on Thursday that its attempt to seal terms for its post-Brexit membership of the World Trade Organization by a fast-track procedure had failed, and it must now enter negotiations which are likely to be lengthy

.

The news just gets better and better doesn't it.

Backbiter

Moby wrote: »

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-wto/uk-signals-failure-of-bid-for-quick-brexit-transition-at-wto-idUKKCN1MZ2CX

.

The news just gets better and better doesn't it.

You need to ignore the bad stuff and just focus on the positives. That way everyone's a winner.

Cakeguts

Moby wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-young-people-no-deal-lose-earnings-john-major-eu-a8601666.html

Young people don't care how much money they lose. If they did they wouldn't all go to terrible universities just for the experience or because it was the thing to do. You can often tell who is going for the experience because they mention the quality of the local night life as part of their choice of university to attend.

Herzlos

Cakeguts wrote: »

Young people don't care how much money they lose. If they did they wouldn't all go to terrible universities just for the experience or because it was the thing to do. You can often tell who is going for the experience because they mention the quality of the local night life as part of their choice of university to attend.

I'm not sure that many young people choose a university based purely on the nightlife (some will, sure), or if any of them will be happy about being worse off to any significant extent, especially £3k/year.

Backbiter

The Brexit negotiations, explained by an Irish lawyer through the medium of rugby:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rugby/news/article.cfm?c_id=80&objectid=12149089

"The EU is the All Blacks of negotiations. It's what it does. Even to get onto that team, every EU27 leader has spent years in the Super Rugby of fraught coalition and other negotiations. The entire structure works to this and everyone knows how to play the game properly.

"The UK, by comparison, is a scratch team that hasn't played in ages but basically had a last puff of the ciggie, token roll of the shoulders, and jogged out short-handed thinking it'll be fine, we'll show these chaps what's what, few early hits, they won't like it, we'll do them.

"Brexit as rugby: it's the last ten, the All Blacks are up. We know how this one ends. Oh, and one thing: if you're a former member of the same side, don't get lippy. It won't help you. At. All."