Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

We will have more control over immigration but whether we need the same numbers as now is open to discussion.

True. I suspect we do though; employment is at a record low and all that. We're realistically not going to get the remaining unemployed into work and will still need to recruit for all those jobs locals don't want to do. We might instead do it on a seasonal VISA so that it looks like we're being tough on migration but it's going to have exactly the same net effect.

If we have a FTA with EU the goods we export to them will have to confirm to thier rules but not on good sold elsewhere or here.

Do you expect British factories to run 2 lines: one for EU exports and one for elsewhere? 2 sets of product codes, 2 sets of warehousing space? 2 sets of training material / robot instructions?
I think unless a company does about 50/50 EU/Non-EU trade they will either:
1. Build everything to EU standard (so we're following the rules anyway). Maybe mark anything rejected goods as UK sale only.

or

2. Drop EU exports (thus reduce their market drastically and potentially lay off staff).



Generally now companies build for the highest standards for the markets they are in, unless it's something with huge volume/cost like cars.



Also, if we have lower standards, or have an FTA with somewhere with lower standards (US, Australia), then the EU will not allow customless access to the market to avoid grey imports. (I think grey imports is the correct term here, I'm not sure).

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Do you expect British factories to run 2 lines: one for EU exports and one for elsewhere? 2 sets of product codes, 2 sets of warehousing space? 2 sets of training material / robot instructions?
I think unless a company does about 50/50 EU/Non-EU trade they will either:
1. Build everything to EU standard (so we're following the rules anyway). Maybe mark anything rejected goods as UK sale only.

or

2. Drop EU exports (thus reduce their market drastically and potentially lay off staff).



Generally now companies build for the highest standards for the markets they are in, unless it's something with huge volume/cost like cars.



Also, if we have lower standards, or have an FTA with somewhere with lower standards (US, Australia), then the EU will not allow customless access to the market to avoid grey imports. (I think grey imports is the correct term here, I'm not sure).

Depend on scale and not every thing is exported to EU, FTA is not a customs union Grey imports exist now.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

Depend on scale and not every thing is exported to EU, FTA is not a customs union Grey imports exist now.

Agreed only 45% of our exports to to the EU.

FTA still involves border checks, VAT etc. So if we have a FTA with the EU we can do whatever we want with whomever we want as the goods going into the EU are being checked anyway.

If we want to be in customs arrangement that our manufacturing needs (no customs delays) then we're restricted in what FTA we have elsewhere.

So what do we want/need most? Seamless trade with the EU, or FTAs with the US and Australia?

If we do have dual line factories, who is going to pay for the extra overhead?

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

Agreed only 45% of our exports to to the EU.

FTA still involves border checks, VAT etc. So if we have a FTA with the EU we can do whatever we want with whomever we want as the goods going into the EU are being checked anyway.

If we want to be in customs arrangement that our manufacturing needs (no customs delays) then we're restricted in what FTA we have elsewhere.

So what do we want/need most? Seamless trade with the EU, or FTAs with the US and Australia?

If we do have dual line factories, who is going to pay for the extra overhead?

There are ways around customs checks at the border but there are problems with being in customs union as it requires four freedoms etc. Of course we could let Labour negotiate as apparently they can get get us in a customs union without four freedoms etc.

Herzlos

A customs union doesn't require the 4 freedoms. Turkey has a customs union but no free movement of people.

I've no idea what Labour's plan is to be fair.

andrewf75

Herzlos wrote: »

A customs union doesn't require the 4 freedoms. Turkey has a customs union but no free movement of people.

I've no idea what Labour's plan is to be fair.

They don’t really have one either, but I imagine they would find it easier to come to a compromise as they don’t have the number of backbench loons that the Tories do.

As you say a customs union without free movement should be possible and this would be a good outcome.

StevieJ

ukcarper wrote: »

There are ways around customs checks at the border but there are problems with being in customs union as it requires four freedoms etc. Of course we could let Labour negotiate as apparently they can get get us in a customs union without four freedoms etc.

Do you actually believe that? Customs Union stops us making our own trade deals, that is the perceived problem.

Joan_number_1_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Do you actually believe that? Customs Union stops us making our own trade deals, that is the perceived problem.

Do YOU actually believe that because the REALITY is that it has not yet been decided - and certainly not formally agreed.
So to correct your statement it SHOULD read "Customs Union MIGHT stop us making our own trade deals, that is the perceived problem.".


Even you must admit that customs isn't currently a problem for the 55% of trade which comes from outside the EU.

kabayiri

The Brexit referendum has already had an impact on migration.

It was the biggest single signal to the politicians that this issue matters. It regularly topped the list of voter concerns during the campaign.

It's going to be a brave politician who blithely ignores such concerns. In many constituencies, they won't remain in role for long.

It's a shame it came down to such a big referendum. They perhaps could have just asked and listened beforehand...

Herzlos

I think a lot of politicians will be out of a job once people see how badly they are getting screwed anyway.

Joan_number_1 wrote: »

Do YOU actually believe that because the REALITY is that it has not yet been decided - and certainly not formally agreed.
So to correct your statement it SHOULD read "Customs Union MIGHT stop us making our own trade deals, that is the perceived problem.".


Even you must admit that customs isn't currently a problem for the 55% of trade which comes from outside the EU.

A customs union more or less insists we can't make our own deals. That's just how they work.
We might be allowed to form our own deals if and only if none of them violate the EUs terms, and even then you'd still have rules of origin to deal with to avoid someone avoid EU tariffs by importing via UK.