Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Cakeguts

Herzlos wrote: »

No-one is saying that though. We're saying that since the vote was so close (the majority was about 1.5x the number of people who marched against it yesterday), and that things have materially changed so much from the promises (being generous here) of the Leave campaign, and that the government is deadlocked about it and running out of time, do we need to stop and figure out what the people actually want?


I strongly believe that we need to address *why* people voted for Brexit, because I'm pretty confident that for most, Brexit won't actually help anything.





You may have this backwards. Leavers are the ones being the sore losers "We won, get over it", who don't seem to understand compromise.



But it's not. It's either elected directly, indirectly, or has some people hired by elected peoples.
It doesn't have a party leader who was trying to bypass parliament, for instance.




Except it can't do that either.




I'll give you that, it's dodgy.






You could say the same for any other large body. Our government certainly isn't any better.




I haven't seen that at all. It must be a given now that Leave was based on lies, thus some small portion of voters must have been mislead.





That's a fair point though; my children will, through us leaving the EU, lose access to any EU perk we don't manage to negotiate (like Erasmus, or the EU27's job markets, or university funding) and will likely have an all round poorer quality of life due to cost of living increases, reduced economic output, employment, opportunities etc. Or do you think all of that will improve? Because even Reese-Mogg doesn't.




Leave are willing to overlook a lot more corruption than Remain.





Not the case either. It's just madness to make any decision of any depth based on such a weak majority. I wouldn't order pizza for a group with a 51.9% agreement, let alone change an economy.







In order for us as a country to prosper and move on, we need to decide what we actually want. Almost all of the 17.4 million Leave voters and going to be unhappy anyway; you're not getting rid of migrants, your working conditions (or pension conditions) won't improve, your infrastructure is still long out of date, your NHS is still falling apart.

This post proves my point in so many ways.



1 No one cares about your children and what they might or might not lose. They are not special either.


2 No we don't need to find out why people voted for Brexit because we already know the answer. The voted for Brexit because they wanted to. Just because you didn't want to vote for Brexit doesn't mean that their choice is wrong.


3 The EU can do whatever it wants it has already shown that.



4 If a small proportion if the Leave voters were misled then that means that the others were not. There is no evidence that it was only Leavers who were misled. There were lies on both sides so there is a fair bet that the same number of Leaver and Remainers were misled in which case it makes no difference to the outcome.


5 The answer to what the majority actually want is to Leave. This has been shown to be the case.



6 As I said I didn't vote but I am absolutely fed up with all these waste of time marches clogging up central London. Why are all the marches in London why not hold them in Liverpool?

undetterred

Think of the children, its enough to make your stomach turn...!!!!!!

Thrugelmir

Masomnia wrote: »

Has anyone from the EU categorically stated we can remain on the same terms?

If you were the EU wouldn't you take the opportunity to ram home the advantage. Removing\reducing the UK's rebates. Thereby providing increased funding for the redistribution of wealth exercise to the poorer European states.

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

It should be considered IMO, as it will put the final nail in the coffin for Remain

Like the issue of Scottish Independence, Reunification of Ireland, Spain regaining control of Gilbrater, Basque people regaining control over areas of Spain and France you mean. Let alone the host of other issues that exist.

As the world becomes better interconnected. The historical rifts are widening once again. All very troubling. Given that the EU was meant to bring peace. As time passes people forget the real causes of social unrest.

mrginge

Masomnia wrote: »

Has anyone from the EU categorically stated we can remain on the same terms?

No but that doesn’t matter, because if we have a losers vote and it turns out to be remain then after a load of renegotiation we can have another vote in a year or so when we figure out what remain looks like.

Herzlos

Masomnia wrote: »

Has anyone from the EU categorically stated we can remain on the same terms?

It's with the European courts now I believe, so we'll find out the official answer soon.

For now we'll just need to believe (or not) a host of lawyers and the author.

Herzlos

undetterred wrote: »

Think of the children, its enough to make your stomach turn...!!!!!!

I'm not making a "think of the children" argument, though your disregard for future generations is staggering. This isn't a tangential claim to appeal to emotion, but pointing out that the next generation will be clearly worse off and the majority of them (ignoring those too young for an opinion) don't want Brexit. They'll be the ones that need to deal with this mess.

My children aren't special; everyone's kids and grand kids and their kids and grandkids (If you believe Mogg) are going to be in the same boat. In fact mine won't be so badly affected; we're going to be quite well insulated from Brexit.

How many Leavers were swayed by lies? Who knows. But since you "won" with a 51.9% vote it'd only take 4% (700,000) of them to sway the result. If 700,000 Remainers can be duped or bribed into marching then I'd suggest the numbers of those swayed by Farage and decades of anti-EU propaganda would sway more, albeit in a less obvious way.

I used to believe all the anti-EU crap, too. There's no shame in being duped by expert liars.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

It's with the European courts now I believe, so we'll find out the official answer soon.

For now we'll just need to believe (or not) a host of lawyers and the author.

It will be interesting to see what ruling will be a simple yes would not tell you much.

gfplux

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

The advantages of being out of the eu have been given repeatedly on this thread.

The fact you do not agree they are advantages does not mean that they are not.

Equally, the "advantages" listed by Remainers are often seen as the opposite by Leavers.

I voted Remain, but have come to realise that if we stayed in the eu would evolve into a single country within a few years, their stated aim is "ever closer union" after all. That is something I most certainly would not want, neither would I want to be forced to join the euro which is something they seem to be planning, after all they have not ruined all the economies in the eu (thereby forcing them to stay within the eu) yet, that seems to be the aim of the euro.

People give what they perceive as advantages on either side, they are seen as disadvantages by the other side, so it cannot be done because it would not be accepted as advantageous by the other side.

So why not humour the remainers and list those advantages of Britain leaving the EU.
Or have you forgotten what those advantages are, because I have.

gfplux

Moby wrote: »

Reasons to stay in the EU :-
1. Trade. About 45 per cent of British trade is now tied up with the EU. It’s our biggest export market and I also like the imports: from German cars and French wine, to Belgian chocolates, Danish bacon and much more, all tariff free. And it is not just trade in goods at stake. The UK is increasingly a service economy and the EU concept of “mutual recognition” gives us a passport to sell services throughout the EU.

2. Domestic investment. The plain fact is that much UK company investment is heavily linked to having a guaranteed EU market of 27 other countries that we can openly export to. Why would I want to risk job losses and lower investment in the UK?

3. Foreign direct investment. The UK has traditionally been one of the biggest attractors of foreign direct investment in the EU. The reason is that we have a fairly competitive economy and guaranteed tariff-free access to the 27 other EU member states. If we vote to leave, much of the FDI, associated investment and jobs will disappear and go to competitors who do have EU access.

4. Immigration. The UK is a beneficiary of EU migration. A lot of EU citizens come to Britain and contribute skills and pay taxes. Yes, some abuse the system to unfairly claim social security benefits but the vast majority do not. Much of this migration means we are able to fill skills shortages in our hospitals, care services, and building and service industries.

5. Freedom of movement of capital and labour. I like the fact that, if I want to, I can take my pound notes, turn them into euros, and the UK government cannot stop me since capital controls are outlawed by the EU. I like the fact that, if I want to, I can find a job in another EU member state, and these countries have no right to stop me from doing so. I think it is great that UK businesses have the right to set up subsidiaries in other EU countries if they want to. Our kids have the right to work and study in these countries as well.

6. Jobs. Britain is a large trading nation and many British jobs would be put at risk if we were to leave the EU. A Brexit would mean lower domestic investment, lower FDI, and lower exports. All this translates into fewer jobs. Estimates of job losses vary from 500,000 to 3m. My best guesstimate is around 1m job losses over two years were a Brexit to occur.

7. The cost of living. Even for the vast majority who will keep their job, there is a real danger that prices will rise quite rapidly if we leave. First, the pound is likely to fall significantly, pushing up the price of imports. Second, the UK might be forced to apply tariffs to imported EU goods if we cannot negotiate a free trade arrangement that is acceptable to the World Trade Organisation. Third, EU competition keeps British firms competitive. Without EU competition, over time we would turn the clock back to the late 1960s and early 70s when the UK economy was very uncompetitive.

8. Peace and stability. There is an old adage that “trade knits nations together” making it much less likely that they will want to spend their time and resources fighting each other. Let’s remember that one of the reasons the EU (EEC as it was originally called) was formed in 1957 was to help reintegrate Germany into the European economy and make war between France and Germany unthinkable. In this respect, the EU has been an outstanding success. It was even awarded the Nobel Peace prize in 2012 in recognition of this.

9. Britain has more influence as an EU member. The Americans, Japanese and Chinese pay a lot more attention to the UK and our views because we are a member of the EU and can influence how it is run. The UK is simply not a big or strong enough economy to negotiate with the US, Japan or China as equals.

10. Safety and security. Sure, the Nato alliance is the primary guarantor of European security, but as members of the EU we are able to use law enforcement intelligence from the 27 other EU countries and have access to fingerprint and DNA information. Since 2004, using the European Arrest Warrant, over 1,000 suspects have faced justice in UK courts and over 7,000 have been extradited from the UK to face trial or serve a sentence.

11. Globalisation. I am in favour of globalisation and the benefits it brings, and being part of the EU is being part of the process of globalisation. I am fed up of hearing arguments from Little Englanders pretending that all would be fine and well if we left the EU. Things will be worse and potentially much worse.

12. Keeping the UK together. A Brexit would be a disaster for the unity of the UK since it is highly likely that Scotland and Wales would want to remain part of the EU. This could lead to them both having referendums to leave the UK followed by applications to rejoin the EU. That will mean years of further uncertainty, and we just have other priorities to worry about.

Thank you Moby. A well thought out list of some of the advantages of Britain staying in the EU.
May I share this list?