Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

The responsible thing to do is to design an economy so that it has some measure of resilience when it comes to change.

I laugh when I hear North East car plants talk about relying on 1 hour windows for Just In Time shipments.

Any manner of incidents : port strikes; motorway closures; bad weather; could destroy that 1 hour window completely.

If you don't believe this, look up when Toyota Japan had problems with JIT delivery of car seats.

We had to cope with 6 week lead times on components, so we did something called PLANNING :rotfl:

The thing about JIT delivery (Nissan get some seats delivered within a 45 minute window) is that it saves an absolute fortune and enables much slicker manufacturing projects. We covered this a while back, but for Nissan to maintain it's current output without JIT, it'd need to build a warehouse ~4 times bigger than Amazons largest US depot, one of the biggest single structured buildings in the world, at a huge land/build/maintenance/staffing cost.


So we *could* do away with JIT and go back to unreliable supply chains, but would anyone want to pay the increased price or would they just buy cars from somewhere JIT works?

StevieJ

kabayiri wrote: »

...and maybe the Tories would be out of power for a decade.

This should be enough time for Corbyn to spend hundreds of billions buying back the nationalised companies for pretty much no gain whatsoever.

Yeah, no damage whatsoever...

They will be out of power for a decade if they leave the EU with no deal. Btw what has Corbyn nationalising industries got to do with my post?

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

The thing about JIT delivery (Nissan get some seats delivered within a 45 minute window) is that it saves an absolute fortune and enables much slicker manufacturing projects. We covered this a while back, but for Nissan to maintain it's current output without JIT, it'd need to build a warehouse ~4 times bigger than Amazons largest US depot, one of the biggest single structured buildings in the world, at a huge land/build/maintenance/staffing cost.


So we *could* do away with JIT and go back to unreliable supply chains, but would anyone want to pay the increased price or would they just buy cars from somewhere JIT works?

We saved £165m through WIP reduction, so I know the rewards were there.

Nowadays though, this country is awash with warehouses.

The other problem is that you make yourself hostage to fortune to other countries. That's where the EU27 are right now, probably regretting some of these highly coupled supply chains with a sovereign state called UK.

The answer the EU politicans would offer, is of course much greater integration. Do UK people want this? A half way house doesn't really seem to cut it for business.

kabayiri

StevieJ wrote: »

They will be out of power for a decade if they leave the EU with no deal. Btw what has Corbyn nationalising industries got to do with my post?

There are different ways you can damage an economy, of course. You seem to think it's only Brexit.

michaels

StevieJ wrote: »

That is because Brexit it is inferior to staying in, I think they call it damage limitation? One of the more sensible members of the Tory party.

Economically you may be correct, however national sovereignty is not an entirely economic decision. Some of us voted for Brexit despite the likely cost to the middle classes who have benefited most from cheap EU labour at the expense of the lowest skilled and paid who have seen wages stagnate at the same time as population pressure has pushed up property prices.

Anyone with a property and above median income no doubt does very well out of EU membership financially and being a society of consumers, what else could possibly matter beyond can I afford to upgrade my golf/audi/merc every 2 years?

andrewf75

michaels wrote: »

Economically you may be correct, however national sovereignty is not an entirely economic decision. Some of us voted for Brexit despite the likely cost to the middle classes who have benefited most from cheap EU labour at the expense of the lowest skilled and paid who have seen wages stagnate at the same time as population pressure has pushed up property prices.

Anyone with a property and above median income no doubt does very well out of EU membership financially and being a society of consumers, what else could possibly matter beyond can I afford to upgrade my golf/audi/merc every 2 years?

Haven't studies shown that its actually the lowest paid and lowest skilled who will suffer most from Brexit?

If the middle class consumers are negatively affected then thats going to have a knock on effect to the lower classes.

Moby

andrewf75 wrote: »

Haven't studies shown that its actually the lowest paid and lowest skilled who will suffer most from Brexit?

If the middle class consumers are negatively affected then thats going to have a knock on effect to the lower classes.

No-deal Brexit will leave households facing higher food prices, restricted travel, medical shortages and curbed consumer rights, Which? warns

• Over 60% are now worried about Brexit, compared to 39% in September 2016
• 2 in 5 people do not understand implications of no-deal Brexit, findings claim

Moby

Looks like May's plan is now to kick any meaningful decisions into the long grass.....meanwhile from March we are going to be living under EU rules without any influence on decision making any more and while paying for the pleasure!




'Secret plans to allow an extension of the transition period in the Brexit withdrawal agreement could result in the UK living under all EU rules well beyond the 21-months so far negotiated, the Guardian can reveal.
The expected offer of an extension is designed to convince Arlene Foster, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, that the “backstop” plan to avoid the creation of a hard border on the island of Ireland will never come into force.
If such a clause was triggered, the whole of the country would be locked into a prolonged period of what EU diplomats have previously described as a state of “vassalage”, with the House of Commons being forced to accept Brussels regulations without having any say on them.
It is also likely that the UK would need to make additional budget contributions on top of its £39bn divorce bill to cover the extra time it would benefit from EU membership. It would not, however, have any representation in the bloc’s decision-making institutions despite the extra period under EU law.
The plan to include an extension clause in the withdrawal agreement is being discussed privately by European commission and UK negotiators at the talks in Brussels, senior EU sources told the Guardian. The length of any extension is yet to be agreed. A European commission spokesman declined to comment.'

Joan_number_1_2

Moby wrote: »

No-deal Brexit will leave households facing higher food prices, restricted travel, medical shortages and curbed consumer rights, Which? warns

• Over 60% are now worried about Brexit, compared to 39% in September 2016
• 2 in 5 people do not understand implications of no-deal Brexit, findings claim

It's like watching someone adrift in an ocean clutching at any nearby flotsam & jetsam in a desperate bid to stop themselves from going under.

Project Fear continues ......... and I for one will be glad when it's long over and so many of these stories continue to be proven groundless.

Moby

Joan_number_1 wrote: »

It's like watching someone adrift in an ocean clutching at any nearby flotsam & jetsam in a desperate bid to stop themselves from going under.

Project Fear continues ......... and I for one will be glad when it's long over and so many of these stories continue to be proven groundless.

I agree we are adrift Joan and will be so for years....how do you like May's plan to keep us in a Customs 'arrangement'? Will it work for you?