Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

andrewf75

antrobus wrote: »

Most of Europe has far more recent experience of 'foreign rule'. See WW II. See the Soviet Bloc. Ireland on the other hand has been independent since 1922. I doubt very much that there is anyone now left with a memory of British rule.

I blame the education system. Don't they teach history anymore?

Apologies for the poor wording, I didn't mean the within living memory part to apply to Ireland!

michaels

So Hammond has negotiated us a Puerto Rico Brexit that almost everyone would agree is inferior to staying in - hooray for democracy

Herzlos

Joan_number_1 wrote: »

It's strange how some ranting remainers witter on about the potential trade lost by the UK because of Brexit .......... yet ignore the rIrish Republic's €65 billion per year in trade with the UK.
No risk there at all.
:whistle:

Not ignored at all. But do you really think that Eire will leave the EU to join the UK over it? Or force the other 26 EU states to give us a cake and eat it deal?


There's no doubting a hard Brexit will be bad for Eire, but it's less bad than giving us what we're asking for.


Naturally you're focusing on a number that looks big, but is meaningless out of context.


Here's a list of Irelands top trading parters for 2017:

1. United States: US$36.1 billion (26.8% of total Irish exports)
2. United Kingdom: $18.3 billion (13.5%)
3. Belgium: $15 billion (11.1%)
4. Germany: $10.8 billion (8%)
5. Switzerland: $7 billion (5.2%)
6. Netherlands: $6.7 billion (4.9%)
7. France: $5.9 billion (4.3%)
8. China: $4.8 billion (3.6%)
9. Italy: $2.9 billion (2.2%)
10. Spain: $2.9 billion (2.1%)
11. Japan: $2.5 billion (1.9%)
12. Mexico: $1.6 billion (1.2%)
13. Poland: $1.5 billion (1.1%)
14. Canada: $1.2 billion (0.9%)
15. Australia: $1 billion (0.7%)

You'll notice we're #2, at 13.5%, almost exactly half of the US at 26.8%.


So do you really think that Ireland will abandon the EU (38% directly, another 8% indirectly without USA) for trade with the UK (13.5%)? That's frankly madness.


If trade to the UK dropped to WTO terms it'd really hurt Eire, but not as much as if trade to everyone else did the same.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

Not ignored at all. But do you really think that Eire will leave the EU to join the UK over it? Or force the other 26 EU states to give us a cake and eat it deal?


There's no doubting a hard Brexit will be bad for Eire, but it's less bad than giving us what we're asking for.


Naturally you're focusing on a number that looks big, but is meaningless out of context.


Here's a list of Irelands top trading parters for 2017:

[/LIST]
You'll notice we're #2, at 13.5%, almost exactly half of the US at 26.8%.


So do you really think that Ireland will abandon the EU (38% directly, another 8% indirectly without USA) for trade with the UK (13.5%)? That's frankly madness.


If trade to the UK dropped to WTO terms it'd really hurt Eire, but not as much as if trade to everyone else did the same.

What terms do the Irish trade under with the US?

andrewf75

cogito wrote: »

What terms do the Irish trade under with the US?

Theres nothing wrong with trading on WTO terms, if thats what has always happened and companies are set up to deal with. Suddenly trading on WTO terms when previously there were no barriers and companies operate supply chains across borders as if they were the same country is an entirely different matter!

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

What terms do the Irish trade under with the US?

No-one has ever said you can't trade in WTO terms (which I assume is your point). But you must be able to admit that WTO is a huge step back from a customs union or FTA?
Plus if I recall correctly the EU is in talks with the US for a trade deal. I'm not sure where it got to after the EU rejected the health care terms.

If WTO was such a good option, why is everyone in the world scrabbling to form trade deals?

StevieJ

michaels wrote: »

So Hammond has negotiated us a Puerto Rico Brexit that almost everyone would agree is inferior to staying in - hooray for democracy

That is because Brexit it is inferior to staying in, I think they call it damage limitation? One of the more sensible members of the Tory party.

kabayiri

andrewf75 wrote: »

Theres nothing wrong with trading on WTO terms, if thats what has always happened and companies are set up to deal with. Suddenly trading on WTO terms when previously there were no barriers and companies operate supply chains across borders as if they were the same country is an entirely different matter!

The responsible thing to do is to design an economy so that it has some measure of resilience when it comes to change.

I laugh when I hear North East car plants talk about relying on 1 hour windows for Just In Time shipments.

Any manner of incidents : port strikes; motorway closures; bad weather; could destroy that 1 hour window completely.

If you don't believe this, look up when Toyota Japan had problems with JIT delivery of car seats.

We had to cope with 6 week lead times on components, so we did something called PLANNING :rotfl:

kabayiri

StevieJ wrote: »

That is because Brexit it is inferior to staying in, I think they call it damage limitation? One of the more sensible members of the Tory party.

...and maybe the Tories would be out of power for a decade.

This should be enough time for Corbyn to spend hundreds of billions buying back the nationalised companies for pretty much no gain whatsoever.

Yeah, no damage whatsoever...

andrewf75

kabayiri wrote: »

The responsible thing to do is to design an economy so that it has some measure of resilience when it comes to change.

I laugh when I hear North East car plants talk about relying on 1 hour windows for Just In Time shipments.

Any manner of incidents : port strikes; motorway closures; bad weather; could destroy that 1 hour window completely.

If you don't believe this, look up when Toyota Japan had problems with JIT delivery of car seats.

We had to cope with 6 week lead times on components, so we did something called PLANNING :rotfl:

Couldn't agree more. That's the downside of the aggressively free market approach taken in the last few decades and the road down which the Tory Brexiteers want to go even further down.