Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

andrewf75

Joan_number_1 wrote: »

If we have to do what the EU tell us to do regarding trade with other countries that is EU controlling the UK = in the EU.

Much more simple than that. Member of the EU = in the EU. Not a member of the EU= Not in the EU.

Norway in no more a member of the EU than Mongolia. You can either be a member or not be a member.

Barnier has been consistent in not moving.
The UK has moved.
Time for the EU to move or no deal IMHO.

Its not up to the EU to move. The logical compromise is a customs union. Its the only way to resolve the Irish border issue. A WTO or Canada Brexit means a border across Ireland. We made the choice to leave, its up to us to make the compromises. The idea that we can be outside the customs union/single market but with an open border to it is bonkers and its ridiculous to blame the EU for being difficult for pointing that out!

movilogo

There is big difference between SM and CU.

Customs Union = Not having to obey 4 freedoms
Single Market = have to obey 4 freedoms

As freedom of movement is a big bugbear for Brexit supporter, staying in SM will be more troublesome than staying in CU.

Moby

May promised the DUP last December that there would be no regulatory divergence between NI and the rest of the UK. In those circumstances the UK has to stay in a Customs Union with the EU. Labour has been saying this for months! Anything else is totally unrealistic:-


'Seamus Leheny, the director of policy for the Freight Transport Association, said Northern Ireland was “disproportionately disadvantaged” by Brexit but pointed out that while there were 800,000 freight trips between Northern Ireland and Britain, there were 4.6m between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland every year.
He warned there would be “paralysis” on the border if there were checks with the cost of delays put at £1 a minute per haulier.
Referring to the EU proposal to have checks on goods destined for Northern Ireland into British ports and premises instead of on the Irish border, Wilson said the EU was using “bully-boy tactics”.
He reiterated warnings by the DUP leader last week that the party would vote against any deal that involved what it considers a border in the Irish Sea.'


'Twenty-one bodies from the Northern Ireland's business community have written to May voicing “grave concern” about a no-deal Brexit, calling for regional flexibility around migrant labour policies.'


Now obviously brexiteers were fully aware of the repercussions for the Union regarding Scotland and Northern Ireland when they made their decision to vote for leaving the EU. Therefore my question is how do we now avoid the break up of the union? and also what is more important to you brexiters the current United Kingdom or a smaller United Kingdom outside of the EU but just made up of England and Wales?

cogito

Moby wrote: »

Now obviously brexiteers were fully aware of the repercussions for the Union regarding Scotland and Northern Ireland when they made their decision to vote for leaving the EU. Therefore my question is how do we now avoid the break up of the union? and also what is more important to you brexiters the current United Kingdom or a smaller United Kingdom outside of the EU but just made up of England and Wales?

If the people of Scotland and Northern Ireland were to choose to leave the Union, I would be sad but would respect it. I choose to leave the EU and simply wish that all those people who said that they would respect the result of the referendum would actually do so.

TBH, I think that one way out of the present impasse would be to give the people of Northern Ireland the opportunity to decide whether or not they want a united Ireland as provided for in the GFA. If they do, problem solved. If they don't, they need to shut up and accept the consequences.

Whether the Republic would actually want them is another matter.

Lungboy

Good luck getting the DUP to agree to that vote.

andrewf75

A lot of people who understand NI politics far better than I do seem to think reunification is inevitable anyway, its just a matter of time. Not sure Brexit makes much difference. The whole concept of Northern Ireland is surely a temporary one (although I wouldn't dare say that to Arlene's face!)

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

TBH, I think that one way out of the present impasse would be to give the people of Northern Ireland the opportunity to decide whether or not they want a united Ireland as provided for in the GFA. If they do, problem solved. If they don't, they need to shut up and accept the consequences.

I think that's the only option that satisfies Mays red lines. If NI re-joins Eire, the GFA unwinds and border moves to the channel. The DUP (who hold far too much power this side of a general election) would never allow it though.

Filo25

andrewf75 wrote: »

A lot of people who understand NI politics far better than I do seem to think reunification is inevitable anyway, its just a matter of time. Not sure Brexit makes much difference. The whole concept of Northern Ireland is surely a temporary one (although I wouldn't dare say that to Arlene's face!)

Up until Brexit I would have said ti was a distant prospect, as middle class catholics were generally happy enough with how things stood in NI, if we go full cliff-edge no deal hard border though, and combine that with no power sharing in NI, I would say things would be a hell of a lot closer in a border poll and I would think the demographic trends don't favour the protestant population going forwards.

Crashy_Time

Herzlos wrote: »

If we want seamless trade into the EU, we have to do what they want WRT to trade. So our choices are thus:
* Meet the conditions for seamless trade.
* Don't have seamless trade.


May has had 2 years to choose one and still hasn't. Once she picks the deal is done and we can move on.



Think that's unfair? Replace EU with Madagascar or Asda - want to trade with them? Accept their terms.



Negotiation doesn't mean meeting in the middle, when one party is trying to get concessions that were ruled out 2 years ago. The EU has been firm, has nowhere to move to (without damaging the EU) and has no obligation to move.


If they give us a customs free trade deal whilst allowing us to form a free trade deal with anyone else, that puts us at a huge advantage over EU countries and makes it impossible catch grey (or black) imports. It's just not gonna happen.




Plus it's not Barnier being stubborn; he's only the gatekeeper, he's following directions from the EU27, which have surprisingly consistent - I'm not sure they ever been so much in agreement. The EU27 want to preserve the EU and there's no cake and eat it.

EU electorate will eventually decide the sort of deals they want (they will elect politicians to do what they want) Italy is a good example. The notion that the EU is some powerful monolith with the power to call all the shots is false, and will increasingly be proved false IMO.

Filo25

Crashy_Time wrote: »

EU electorate will eventually decide the sort of deals they want (they will elect politicians to do what they want) Italy is a good example. The notion that the EU is some powerful monolith with the power to call all the shots is false, and will increasingly be proved false IMO.

I haven't seen much sign that the average member of the public in most EU countries really cares too much about Brexit, or what kind of deal is agreed, Ireland probably the only notable exception