Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

wunferall

andrewf75 wrote: »

You didn't get as far as this bit though, did you?

"However, Europeans don’t want “less Europe,” the study found, with 90 percent of respondents saying the EU should be more than just a single market. Eighty-one percent of those surveyed said they do not think the EU should prioritize leaving more decision-making to national governments, which the think tank said “suggests that national sovereignty isn’t an issue for the majority.”

People everywhere have reservations about the EU of course, but sadly it seems we're out on our own in thinking the answer is to simply stop working together and go off on our own.

How interesting that you choose that bit rather than this:

“Without change and reform, the EU will remain irrelevant to a majority of its citizens,” Pascal Lamy, trustee of Friends of Europe and a former European trade commissioner, said about the findings of the study

Yes, even those in the EU have reservations about it's future.
Sadly it seems that some here in the UK forget that most of the world is not in the EU and strangely they seem to manage just fine.
So fine in fact that - even without the UK leaving this august organisation and with it's expansion - the EU's share of global trade is steadily decreasing.

wunferall

kabayiri wrote: »

You have to prep, I completely agree.

It didn't matter how well negotiations would go. There could always be an 11th hour issue collapsing a deal.

Regardless of anybody's Leave/Remain stance, this whole episode does not reflect well on the political class at all.

I absolutely agree.
However, an understanding that the political class isn't doing what the voters want is, to some degree at least, happening in many countries.
People here think Brexit is the only example; it certainly is not.

Should I mention Trump?
Regardless of what personal opinion anyone may hold, now he is at the helm whilst the USA forges ahead and prospers - which is what he promised pre-election.

Or the long-standing Angela Merkel.
Her position is much-weakened and the forthcoming elections will undoubtedly see her position weakened further.

Zimbabwe and Mugabe's demise.

Maybe it's part of a global "awakening".
With Britain amongst the vanguard.

BobQ

wunferall wrote: »

I absolutely agree.

I also agree with kabayiri.

However, an understanding that the political class isn't doing what the voters want is, to some degree at least, happening in many countries.
People here think Brexit is the only example; it certainly is not.

I am sure that it is not but it was inevitable that such a narrow majority and entrenched views would create discontent and division in our nation. The different votes in the 4 UK regions, the divisions between the affluent south and the north, between young and old and the general uncertainty of many voters during the campaigns all contribute to a disaffected UK.

But I agree that the are many countries where politicians are perceived as letting the people down. It may just be a case that politicians face more scrutiny from the 24/7 and social media.

In my lifetime I cannot ever recall a time when both main parties were so badly led and so divided.

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

But I agree that the are many countries where politicians are perceived as letting the people down. It may just be a case that politicians face more scrutiny from the 24/7 and social media.

Politicians have failed to deliver. Inequality is rising not narrowing.

Moby

cogito wrote: »

I said right at the outset that the EU don't do negotiation and that we should have started preparing for no deal on the 23rd June 2016. That's the only thing that might have brought the EU to the negotiating table.

As I pointed out Brexiteers were so naive about where the true power lies. We were always going to be screwed by the EU if we voted brexit. Now we will reap what we have sown.

Perhaps Boris will still sweep in on a white charger to rescue us all;)

Moby

This brings a new dimension to the idea that brexiteers are like turkeys voting for Christmas:-
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/12/brexit-blamed-for-expected-price-rise-christmas-turkeys-pound-farmers-eu-workers

Brexit is about to make Christmas turkeys more expensive. Prices are to jump as a result of the fall in the value of the pound and higher wages farmers now have to pay to their east European pluckers.

Paul Kelly, the chairman of the British Turkey Federation and boss of KellyBronze, a free range producer, said the industry was being forced to increase prices because of a 5% to 7% rise in costs.

The increase in Turkey prices comes as Christmas dinner staples including onions, potatoes and sprouts are also rising in price, after the long hot and dry summer affected crops.

Moby

wunferall wrote: »

I absolutely agree.
However, an understanding that the political class isn't doing what the voters want is, to some degree at least, happening in many countries.
People here think Brexit is the only example; it certainly is not.

Should I mention Trump?
Regardless of what personal opinion anyone may hold, now he is at the helm whilst the USA forges ahead and prospers - which is what he promised pre-election.

Or the long-standing Angela Merkel.
Her position is much-weakened and the forthcoming elections will undoubtedly see her position weakened further.

Zimbabwe and Mugabe's demise.

Maybe it's part of a global "awakening".
With Britain amongst the vanguard.

Yep Jeremy Corbyn has fought the political class all his life. He has always hated the EU because he sees it as a capitalist club full of elites. Those who now hate the elites have to decide.....Is it going to be Trumps ' brown shirts' answer or the socialists?;) Left wing populism is somewhat more palatable imo. It hates the elite establishment but doesn't hate immigrants and is not predicated for its energy on puerile nationalist identity. Besides we all saw what happened in Germany the last time the working classes had a similar choice to make!

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

I said right at the outset that the EU don't do negotiation and that we should have started preparing for no deal on the 23rd June 2016. That's the only thing that might have brought the EU to the negotiating table.

The EU negotiate bit won't meet in the middle or compromise their values.
We really should have been putting effort into coming up with a plan they'd accept (even just pick one from the list) as well as planning for a no deal. We've done neither and are putting all our effort effort into fobbing everyone off.

So we're currently at no plan, no fallback, and no government majority. That means we're either going to have to risk a no deal unprepared or take the EUs customs union backstop.

I really wish we had a competent negotiator and politician somewhere.

cogito

Meanwhile in Bavaria, there's rather important election tomorrow. It looks like the two main parties will get hammered with the Greens being the main beneficiaries if the polls are to be believed. The Greens are on 18% which would make them the second party ahead of SPD with the AfD on 11%.

If I were a gambling man, I would think that many AfD supporters are like the shy Tories who, when questioned say that they will vote Green. Either way, AfD is almost certain to enter the Bavarian parliament for the first time as is the far left Linke.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

The EU negotiate bit won't meet in the middle or compromise their values.
We really should have been putting effort into coming up with a plan they'd accept (even just pick one from the list) as well as planning for a no deal. We've done neither and are putting all our effort effort into fobbing everyone off.
...

This is a serious question. Let's assume Brexit goes through.

Where would the EU want the UK to be in 5/10 years time?

If they didn't care, and the UK did suffer industrial and economic hardship, then political instability would not be far behind.

Europe has seen this before remember, when the Allies had a very aggressive stance against the Weimar republic. That too was accompanied by a rise in populism, a specific group to focus their hatred on, and we all know how that panned out.

A new Weimar republic, but also a nuclear power, would not be an attractive neighbour.

So...EU needs to be aggressive for the sake of their club rules, yet they are haunted by their past.

I think the EU want to make the leaving process a difficult one, but they will all probably do some longer term makeshift deal, and resolve very little.