Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Moby

kabayiri wrote: »

This is a serious question. Let's assume Brexit goes through.

Where would the EU want the UK to be in 5/10 years time?

If they didn't care, and the UK did suffer industrial and economic hardship, then political instability would not be far behind.

Europe has seen this before remember, when the Allies had a very aggressive stance against the Weimar republic. That too was accompanied by a rise in populism, a specific group to focus their hatred on, and we all know how that panned out.

A new Weimar republic, but also a nuclear power, would not be an attractive neighbour.

So...EU needs to be aggressive for the sake of their club rules, yet they are haunted by their past.

I think the EU want to make the leaving process a difficult one, but they will all probably do some longer term makeshift deal, and resolve very little.

For the umpteenth time they are not being aggressive about the club rules! They are simply applying them and some of us always knew this was going to happen. There is no upside for the UK. As you allude to above if we then as a country turn increasingly inward and are subject to right wing populism.....that's hardly a happy legacy for following generations is it?

buglawton

The rules were written by persons whose imagination didn't extend to the possibility that any country would ever, ever leave the EU. And had such persons even tried to write in sensible leaving clauses, they'd have been groupthinked out.

The UK has broken the mould (aka club rules), And a broken mould will have a different form than an unbroken one.

phillw

Joan_number_1 wrote: »

Project Fear continues ......... and I for one will be glad when it's long over and so many of these stories continue to be proven groundless.

What will you do when they are proven to be true?

buglawton wrote: »

The rules were written by persons whose imagination didn't extend to the possibility that any country would ever, ever leave the EU. And had such persons even tried to write in sensible leaving clauses, they'd have been groupthinked out.

This seems an illogical conclusion. If they thought nobody would leave, then there is no reason why they wouldn't put in what you would consider "sensible leaving clauses". It's not sensible to leave, but we didn't vote for sensible.

andrewf75 wrote: »

The people aren't that gullible.

The referendum result proves otherwise. The angry brexiters aren't going to be happy with anything, because they were promised everything and they aren't going to get it.

kabayiri

Moby wrote: »

For the umpteenth time they are not being aggressive about the club rules! They are simply applying them and some of us always knew this was going to happen. There is no upside for the UK. As you allude to above if we then as a country turn increasingly inward and are subject to right wing populism.....that's hardly a happy legacy for following generations is it?

It's not the rules.

It's the process of leaving.

A50 seemed like a half finished rule book to me.

It seems very easy for the whole thing to become very acrimonious, and this is precisely what has happened.

I think...I'd have rather them do a load of negotiations behind closed doors, then do one big presentation to the people at the end.

phillw

wunferall wrote: »

Yes, even those in the EU have reservations about it's future.

Having reservations about the future doesn't mean that you should throw it away, that is black and white thinking and very harmful.

wunferall wrote: »

Sadly it seems that some here in the UK forget that most of the world is not in the EU and strangely they seem to manage just fine.

Sadly leavers pull out that argument without understanding that it makes no sense. The rest of the world is further away than the EU, all those countries do most trade with their neighbours. They aren't going to ditch buying from those they have closest ties with, just to help us out of a hole because of our own self harm. Nobody who offered this argument actually believes it, it was just a diversion to get you to let go of all the rights you had by being an EU citizen.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/divisions/pw-2018-06-13-182-commons/mp/10426

kabayiri

phillw wrote: »

...
Sadly leavers pull out that argument without understanding that it makes no sense. The rest of the world is further away than the EU, all those countries do most trade with their neighbours. They aren't going to ditch buying from those they have closest ties with, just to help us out of a hole because of our own self harm. Nobody who offered this argument actually believes it, it was just a diversion to get you to let go of all the rights you had by being an EU citizen.
...

Physical distance is not stopping China becoming the biggest economic power in the world, mostly driven by trade.

Right now, they are supporting a massive rail project running across Asia.

Amazon hasn't given up the ambition to be the dominant retail player, just because some of their customers are further away.

Maybe trade becomes more difficult, but heck, it was more difficult when the UK was the dominant trading nation with the world. It's easy to find excuses.

cogito

I assume that all those who say thet the EU are simply applying their rules are familiar with Article 50 para 2 which says that the Union will negotiate and conclude an agreement with the leaving country.

They may be applying their rules but they are most definitely not negotiating. The two seem to be mutually exclusive.

phillw

kabayiri wrote: »

Physical distance is not stopping China becoming the biggest economic power in the world, mostly driven by trade.

Well if you want an oppressive regime ruling the country with an iron fist while stripping away human rights, increasing polution etc then maybe you could follow their example.

That certainly wasn't what the people thought they were voting for. Although it would help the government with NHS funding, they could just scrap a load of services. You can't be like China, unless you are like China. If you want to live in a country like China, then please move there and don't drag us into that hell.

cogito wrote: »

They may be applying their rules but they are most definitely not negotiating.

I think you misunderstand what negotiating means. You go in and give your red lines and what you're prepared to compromise over. We have red lines at odds with their red lines, we have no room to compromise because of Mogg & his EU hating friends. You have to think we're magically superior to suggest that the EU isn't negotiating, unfortunately of course most brexiters think we are magically superior.

BobQ

Moby wrote: »

As I pointed out Brexiteers were so naive about where the true power lies. We were always going to be screwed by the EU if we voted brexit. Now we will reap what we have sown.

Perhaps Boris will still sweep in on a white charger to rescue us all;)

While I agree with this I think that if we were serious about making it happen we should have got on with it. Built the border crossings, had trade deals on the table ready to sign, arranged alternative sources of goods and services.


Instead the Government has fought amongst itself and failed to do anything to prepare for a no-deal.

kabayiri

phillw wrote: »

Well if you want an oppressive regime ruling the country with an iron fist while stripping away human rights, increasing polution etc then maybe you could follow their example.
...

Well, you support them by your actions, as do most of us.

Where was your laptop made? your phone; tv; hifi; burglar alarm; etc, etc.

They need MONEY to implement their plans.

So...err, thanks for that

Maybe I do want single party rule. Especially if it delivers 7%+ growth, year on year, as a minimum.