Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

wunferall

cogito wrote: »

Meanwhile in Latvia, pro-Russian and so called populist parties have topped the election. The current coalition members will have their work cut out to form a government with less than 30% of the vote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/harmony-russia-populist-latvia-election-maris-kucinskis/

Another headache for the EU.

You would think so, wouldn't you - but as with the remainers in here it will get ignored.

Apparently Brexit was not enough of a warning to the EU that reform is seriously needed.
Neither was the election result in the Netherlands.
Or in Hungary.
Or in Poland.
Or in Italy.
Or in Germany.
Or .....

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

Not necessarily. A million quid a year banker losing a job is not cancelled out by Asda hiring someone on a zero hour contract and giving them a shift a week.

We know Brexit is costing lots of well paid and skilled jobs, and I've seen no evidence that the jobs being created are even full time.

450k new jobs since the vote is good but can you honestly say any of it is because of Brexit?

You already read and replied to my post on that
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=74883463&postcount=1960

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Really? It's remarkable that such a devotee of the EU seems to be unfamiliar with the principle of subsidiarity.

On the specific issue of safety, the EU lays down minimum standards across the bloc. Member states are free to develop these standards as necessary and in my experience, the UKs standards are higher than in most other countries .

Ok. Can you name any goods that are legal in Europe but not here? Did we ban foi gras recently?
We may have higher standards but I'm not sure that translates to not being legally able to import stuff that meets the minimum unless I'm mistaken.

Sometimes I get the impression you're deliberately trying to miss the point, but maybe I'm just not being cautious enough with my wording.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

..... Sometimes I get the impression you're deliberately trying to miss the point ......

Surely you got that the wrong way round?

Herzlos

wunferall wrote: »

So you know that the few dozen jobs that have gone were all "a million quid a year" bankers do you?
:rotfl:
It gets no better with your assertion that 450,000 new jobs are all of the "zero hour contract and giving them a shift a week" variety!
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Ah well, they do say that there are none so blind as those that will not see.


AGAIN Herzlos look at statistics please.
If such high-paid jobs were leaving en masse it must affect the average wage, surely?
You can't lose a million quid hundreds of times without it affecting the figures.
Well, September's UK Labour Market Bulletin from HM Government says this: "Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.9% excluding bonuses, and by 2.6% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."



Wrong.
I have provided evidence that the number of jobs increased by 450,000 as per statistics and Fullfact.
I have also provided evidence that average weekly earnings are rising which could not be the case if these jobs were zero hours, since it might count as a job but could not include any earnings if no hours were worked.

Not only that but just this week came the news that productivity is rising, at the fastest rate in a while too.
That makes three increases in four quarters.
:T

Please read what I wrote, it wasn't very long.

I didn't say all 450k new jobs were zero hour. I was just pointing out that not all jobs (note I'm talking jobs not people) are equal. So net jobs isn't massively meaningful here.

I personally doubt we've lost more than a dozen 7 digit salaries, but easily thousands of top or higher rate tax payers. Have we replaced them with equivalents? Who knows? Are the jobs being created because of Brexit or in spite of Brexit? I'd assume the latter.

I agree with your assertions that there are more jobs and average wages have gone up slightly. I'll give you a cookie if you can find any way to tie either of those to Brexit.

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

You already read and replied to my post on that
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=74883463&postcount=1960

Correlation =/= causation.

wunferall

Either Team Remain are lying or they are not good either at simple arithmetic or forecasting.
Whichever it is, they should not be surprised when the people of the UK work it out for themselves as they did in the referendum.
To be honest it's a good job for Team Remain that they have run out of time for a rerun of the Brexit referendum because these lies would surely return to haunt them.

As with the earlier assertions of jobs being lost purely as the result of a vote to leave; 820,000 by now said Osborne. Fact = 450,000 gained.

As with the assertion that over 2% of UK GDP has been lost since the referendum. Fact = on that assertion growth in the UK would by now instead have been higher than at any time since around the 1970's!

As with the assertion that the referendum has cost the Treasury £440 million per week. Fact = our deficit (government borrowing) is down and in the last financial year corporation tax reached a record high of £56 billion.

I could go on but there seems little point because it would appear that remainers here at least want to ignore facts an rely upon misplaced preconceptions.
What a shame it is that instead they cannot rely upon facts and figures.

Herzlos

wunferall wrote: »

Easy peasy.
The Brexit referendum was 23rd June 2016.
What happens afterwards like it or not must therefore be at least in part attributed to this.
After all, you would be quick enough to attribute it to Brexit if there were losses instead wouldn't you?
You're already trying to when they have increased.
Ergo the gains must be due to Brexit

But that's not how it works. Lots of jobs have been lost where the loss was directly attributed to Brexit. The EMA for instance.
Not everything that has happened in it the last two years because of Brexit, except for the stuff that has.

Oh and please cut out the snide remarks.
Your "Please read .. " comment is unnecessary - and it's a sure sign you're losing the argument.

Sorry, just frustrated at my posts being twisted to try and get a dig in. I don't mind people having a pop based on what I actually write though :rotfl:

I really hope things will work out as well as you are convinced they are though.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

Ok. Can you name any goods that are legal in Europe but not here?

Cannabis? Fireworks?

Thrugelmir

wunferall wrote: »

As with the assertion that the referendum has cost the Treasury £440 million per week.

Where would £19 billion of tax revenues come from?