Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

wunferall

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Macron's desire to take business from London. Whether there be Brexit or no Brexit is hardly a secret.

Well be honest, with the downwards direction that the French economy is heading in they have to try something.
Anything.


Unemployment in France currently stands at over 9% with youth unemployment well over 20%, so who's surprised that Macron et amis would try to talk up even the remotest of chances of improving those dire figures?
The few that have moved aren't worth mentioning and even if thousands did move (which you have to admit is unlikely) it won't even scratch the surface.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

The article doesn't mention brexit and the growth started 3 years before the vote so apologies if I'm not convinced. The graph largely shows vacancies drop off a cliff as the 2008 recession bit and a recovery starting 2013 and no real change about 2016.

Then there's the vacancies vs jobs thing. Are there more vacancies because jobs have been created or because the migrants doing them have left?

The only jobs I'm aware of being created due to Brexit are 200 new customs agents, department for leaving EU and the minister of supply. Can anyone point me to new jobs that aren't just about managing brexit?

I can point to many that have been lost or cancelled explicitly due to Brexit.

You can only point to jobs being lost because of Britain's love of reporting anti-Brexit news.

Please at least try to look logically at the statistics?
The UK voted to leave the EU in what is now commonly called Brexit on 23rd June 2016.
According to Fullfact, "Employment has increased by around 450,000 since May to July 2016."

https://fullfact.org/economy/more-people-work-brexit-vote/

450,000 more jobs since the Brexit vote than there were before it.
That makes a mockery of any claim that jobs have been lost because of Brexit because employment hasn't gone down, it's gone up.
Is it because of Brexit?
There are no statistics for that (as you suggest) BUT clearly the number of jobs in the UK has NOT gone down because of Brexit.

buglawton

Thats right, we're only looking at net jobs lost/gained. Individual examples of a batch of gains here or losses there are meaningless in this context.

buglawton

vivatifosi wrote: »

Watching Sophy Ridge on Sunday this morning, she was interviewing the Irish Deputy PM who said that a Brexit deal was 90% done and that the main outstanding issue was Ireland. This seems to fit with what Juncker said earlier. So hopefully we are on our way to a deal.

Different VAT, fuel and alcohol taxes already exist across this border.

The idea that there's any need for the EU to erect customs posts all along the border has been a totally bogus Brussels scare tactic from the off.

I hope the Irish leadership can see that.

PixelPound

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Still requires ratification. Plenty of time for objections at regional/national level.

Both main parties are split over what to do, though Labour now seem to be going for voting against irrespective of the deal in the hope of a GE, as they believe they will win (far from guaranteed esp if the spin is put on that it was Labour that stopped brexit)

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

Thats right, we're only looking at net jobs lost/gained. Individual examples of a batch of gains here or losses there are meaningless in this context.

Not necessarily. A million quid a year banker losing a job is not cancelled out by Asda hiring someone on a zero hour contract and giving them a shift a week.

We know Brexit is costing lots of well paid and skilled jobs, and I've seen no evidence that the jobs being created are even full time.

450k new jobs since the vote is good but can you honestly say any of it is because of Brexit?

Herzlos

buglawton wrote: »

Different VAT, fuel and alcohol taxes already exist across this border.

The idea that there's any need for the EU to erect customs posts all along the border has been a totally bogus Brussels scare tactic from the off.

I hope the Irish leadership can see that.

But the same safety and compliance standards on both sides in the border. Items on either side may have different prices (which is allowed in the customs union - duty at point of sale) but nothing is legal on one side and not on the other.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

But the same safety and compliance standards on both sides in the border. Items on either side may have different prices (which is allowed in the customs union - duty at point of sale) but nothing is legal on one side and not on the other.

Really? It's remarkable that such a devotee of the EU seems to be unfamiliar with the principle of subsidiarity.

On the specific issue of safety, the EU lays down minimum standards across the bloc. Member states are free to develop these standards as necessary and in my experience, the UKs standards are higher than in most other countries .

cogito

Meanwhile in Latvia, pro-Russian and so called populist parties have topped the election. The current coalition members will have their work cut out to form a government with less than 30% of the vote.

https://www.politico.eu/article/harmony-russia-populist-latvia-election-maris-kucinskis/

Another headache for the EU.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

Not necessarily. A million quid a year banker losing a job is not cancelled out by Asda hiring someone on a zero hour contract and giving them a shift a week.

We know Brexit is costing lots of well paid and skilled jobs, and I've seen no evidence that the jobs being created are even full time.

450k new jobs since the vote is good but can you honestly say any of it is because of Brexit?

So you know that the few dozen jobs that have gone were all "a million quid a year" bankers do you?
:rotfl:
It gets no better with your assertion that 450,000 new jobs are all of the "zero hour contract and giving them a shift a week" variety!
:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
Ah well, they do say that there are none so blind as those that will not see.


AGAIN Herzlos look at statistics please.
If such high-paid jobs were leaving en masse it must affect the average wage, surely?
You can't lose a million quid hundreds of times without it affecting the figures.
Well, September's UK Labour Market Bulletin from HM Government says this: "Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.9% excluding bonuses, and by 2.6% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."

Herzlos wrote: »

We know Brexit is costing lots of well paid and skilled jobs, and I've seen no evidence that the jobs being created are even full time.

Wrong.
I have provided evidence that the number of jobs increased by 450,000 as per statistics and Fullfact.
I have also provided evidence that average weekly earnings are rising which could not be the case if these jobs were zero hours, since it might count as a job but could not include any earnings if no hours were worked.

Not only that but just this week came the news that productivity is rising, at the fastest rate in a while too.
That makes three increases in four quarters.
:T