Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Herzlos

I certainly think that on a personal level the EU have been a bit unfair to May; they know she's not up to it and expecting the impossible. Mocking her with repeated questions like "what do you want?" And "look, cake but no cherries" are a bit petty but I think it's because we've completely lost their respect through this fiasco. They are no longer on our side or taking us seriously.

May presenting the chequers deal and then not being invited back in to discuss it is pretty fair. You wouldn't invite any other 3rd party in to discuss their proposition.

Herzlos

The markets don't seem very happy:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/21/markets-extend-winning-streak-fourth-day-wall-street-hits-new/?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1537537325

Good for people looking for a week pound

kabayiri

wunferall wrote: »

Jeremy Hunt has got it spot-on:


https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-hunt/uk-foreign-minister-hunt-urges-eu-get-serious-in-brexit-talks-idUKKCN1M209S?il=0

Being nice gets you nowhere with political bureaucrats.

We need to work out the easy targets within the EU and make sure they are worried. The stakes are too high to lose this battle.

kingstreet

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-theresa-may-s-plan-to-bypass-barnier-was-doomed-1.3636119

Why Theresa May’s plan to bypass Barnier was doomed

The idea made no sense but fed into the British tabloid narrative about Brussels

The British government has been putting it about for some time that Theresa May was planning to appeal above the head of the EU’s Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, to her fellow heads of government. The idea has apparently been to reach beyond the so-called European Commission bureaucrats and appeal directly to her fellow politicians. Although it is entirely appropriate for the prime minister to speak directly to other prime ministers, the notion of bypassing the EU’s negotiator was always destined to fail. It was, as the joke goes, like crime in a multi-storey car park. Wrong on so many different levels.

The strategy reached its intended height at the recent informal EU heads of government in Salzburg. May was afforded the opportunity to present her most recent thinking on Brexit to her colleagues over dinner. They listened courteously and probably with some sympathy for her domestic political travails. That was it. May also had some useful bilateral meetings in Salzburg, including with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. The EU 27 then reaffirmed their full backing for Barnier. No surprise for anyone.

Nevertheless, on her flight back to London, May might have wondered briefly why her pleadings had not led to any watering-down of the EU’s negotiating position.

The most obvious reason is that Barnier’s mandate comes from the heads of government themselves. He is doing precisely what they have made clear they want him to do. He is carrying out their wishes calmly and effectively. The process of formulating the EU’s position on Brexit has from the beginning been exceptionally open and intensive.

All member states have had the opportunity to shape the EU’s overall strategy and detailed negotiating approach. In addition to the European Council itself, the member states meet very frequently with Barnier and his task force in the General Affairs Council, in the Committee of Permanent Representatives and at the article 50 committee. Each member state also meets the commission team frequently on a bilateral basis. These meetings ensure that Barnier is aware of every evolving nuance in each capital, and above all in Dublin.

No surprises
Another reason why May should not be surprised that her words failed to lead to any breakthrough in Salzburg is that the UK’s partners were, of course, already intimately aware of the UK’s negotiating positions. Those positions have been reported faithfully and in detail to other member states after every negotiating session between British and European negotiators. Moreover, the UK has been working hard to make known its views directly in capitals around Europe, including at political level. Their arguments naturally receive a polite hearing wherever they go. However, any impact of such visits will already have been fed by member states into the EU’s overall negotiating approach in advance of Salzburg through the open channels available to them. Incidentally, an issue on which partners are particularly well briefed is the Belfast Agreement. The subtleties and complexities of Northern Ireland are very well understood around European capitals.

To the extent that EU governments have not been convinced by British negotiating positions, it has precisely nothing to do with getting access to the right interlocutors. It is simply that the British views have not been sufficiently convincing. No more, no less.

Experienced British officials know all of this well. The UK used to understand the EU’s decision-making processes better than anyone. It was therefore able to exert exceptional influence in the EU until the decision to leave. One hopes that some of those British officials are still speaking up and being listened to in London.

Contrived fiction
There are probably many reasons for the contrived fiction about bypassing Barnier. For a start it is difficult for anyone to accept that their arguments are simply not gaining traction. It also feeds comfortably into the British tabloid narrative about Brussels bureaucracy. The fiction seeks to shift the focus from the British red lines, which define the limits of a solution but are apparently sacrosanct, towards the EU’s stance in defence of its basic principles, which it suits some to portray as inflexible.

Moreover, the nonsense about Brussels bureaucrats helps the British government to argue domestically that a solution would be at hand if only the right people would engage. It helps to keep alive the illusion that the German and French business cavalry are about to appear on the horizon, riding to the UK’s rescue, although it is clear that the cavalry are sitting comfortably back at base camp.

I hope a reasonable agreement can be found in the Brexit negotiations. That would be in everyone’s interests. Ireland, as one of the most affected member states, will certainly work to that end. However, the UK’s search for workable compromises means the ongoing painful slog of engaging with the EU’s negotiators rather than deluding itself that better ones can be found.

Bobby McDonagh is a former Irish ambassador to the UK, Italy and the EU.

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

Because everyone is sick of the leavers preaching their hate against the EU. Nobody expected turbo xenophobia from the "I'm not racist but.."s

What a load of rubbish, they voted for referendum and 498 of then voted to trigger article 50.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Being nice gets you nowhere with political bureaucrats.

We need to work out the easy targets within the EU and make sure they are worried. The stakes are too high to lose this battle.

Still convinced that if we just talk to the right national leader, they'll crack and the EU will just give us what we want? I'm not sure they've ever been more united.

Filo25

Herzlos wrote: »

Still convinced that if we just talk to the right national leader, they'll crack and the EU will just give us what we want? I'm not sure they've ever been more united.

From the UK point of view, I think that is the major concern, the government hasn't really been able to pitch anything yet which has seen meaningful splits in the EU posiition and its hard to see how they will in the near future with our myriad of redlines.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

From the UK point of view, I think that is the major concern, the government hasn't really been able to pitch anything yet which has seen meaningful splits in the EU posiition and its hard to see how they will in the near future with our myriad of redlines.

If we don't get a deal what do you think is going to happen.

mrginge

ukcarper wrote: »

If we don't get a deal what do you think is going to happen.

You might as well ask what will happen if we do get a deal tbh.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

Still convinced that if we just talk to the right national leader, they'll crack and the EU will just give us what we want? I'm not sure they've ever been more united.

The EU knew that the UK had a weak point with the issue of the Irish border, and they have not been reticent in acting upon it.

In fact, I admire their negotiators. They are doing the job they are paid for.

In the event of a break down in relations, the Irish are in an exposed position and they know it. So much of their freight goes through UK.

Equally, we do not have to offer rights to the millions of EU residents here. In a scrap you look at all options.