Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

I wonder who is whispering the loudest in his ear.

In reality as has been said all along. A deal is in the interests of all 28 parties concerned.

Particularly as the EU budget from 2020 needs to be agreed. No funding from the UK would have a material impact on this.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

If the political aftermath of such a remain decision was a swing to a hard right/hard left in UK politics, would you consider it a reasonable price?

I'm asking, not making any judgement here.

Would I consider a swing to the right a reasonable price for remaining in the EU?
Absolutely. We can maybe then try to address some of the problems, whilst letting the frothers on the right run out of steam. I honestly thing a Leave vote did more to kill off the far right in the UK than anything else - once cold, hard reality hit them, it's support from all but the most die-hard faded away. UKIP, BNP are essentially non-entities now.

kabayiri

Tromking wrote: »

Let’s call it the Boris effect!
Call me cynical, but it wouldn’t surprise in the least if the whole Boris leadership thing is a clever ruse on the British side to extract a better deal out of the negotiations.

I think it fair to say that, thus far in the negotiations, the UK has been too predictable, and the EU has been able to drive the agenda and control the discussions.

This wasn't the case when Juncker met Trump, to stave off a trade war. I think we saw a more compliant Juncker.

So, maybe the EU is happier dealing with a known quantity right now, rather than an unpredictable situation close to the A50 end date.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

Would I consider a swing to the right a reasonable price for remaining in the EU?
Absolutely. We can maybe then try to address some of the problems, whilst letting the frothers on the right run out of steam. I honestly thing a Leave vote did more to kill off the far right in the UK than anything else - once cold, hard reality hit them, it's support from all but the most die-hard faded away. UKIP, BNP are essentially non-entities now.

I don't think we can reach any conclusions yet.

Look at the recruiting grounds where UKIP was able to garner so much support back in 2015. The forgotten towns of NE/NW and other regions.

What has really changed for these people? Nothing much if anything.

Along comes the sales pitch of Brexit; much upheaval follows; now do you think these people will be happy with nothing much once again?

If anything, I reckon we are in for much more division in the UK, not less.

I personally want a political party with the guts to tackle our slack welfare system, and if this is from the right, so be it.

wunferall

Herzlos wrote: »

Would I consider a swing to the right a reasonable price for remaining in the EU?

HARD right Herzlos, not simply "right".
Compare UKIP to the likes of the National Front or the BNP you mention and you'll soon see that by comparison with the UKIP which did so well in 2014/5, UKIP are almost liberal.

Strangely the stance taken by some remainers and even the EU itself could well lead to a resurgent UKIP, as Kabayiri says.
That would be quite amusing, EUrophiles with their non-acceptance of Brexit pushing the UK towards what are now a much more radical UKIP.

Herzlos

UKIP was a one trick pony. What would they do if we did remain and why would anyone listen to them this time round?

Similarly I think any "hard" right would make some noise, be largely ignored and then vanish into obscurity again

Tromking

Herzlos wrote: »

UKIP was a one trick pony. What would they do if we did remain and why would anyone listen to them this time round?

Similarly I think any "hard" right would make some noise, be largely ignored and then vanish into obscurity again

In the event of Remain, UKIP’s raison detre returns and I would expect them to do well again, especially if the Tories return to the farce of being all things to all people re. EU membership again.
Despite your penchant for desperately trying to append the title ‘far right’ to all and sundry, the far right does not exist in any meaningful sense in U.K. politics.

Herzlos

I don't have a penchant for adding far right, nor am I comparing them to some of the blatant neo-nazi groups. In the UK political spectrum, someone must be on the far right (and left). If I'm talking about far right here, I mean for the UK - the further right of the Tories, UKIP, BNP for instance.


In the event of a Remain, UKIPs raison de'tre returns, but it's going to be tainted by all of the lies and lack of cohesion. They can claim it was all a stitch-up and that UKIP would do a better job, but there's so much infighting I'm not sure they'd be able to keep a leader for the duration of any campaign.

Daniel54

wunferall wrote: »

Please at least try to keep up-to-date.
We're not talking first-quarter any more you know.
Things have moved on.


August 29th: "France GDP Growth Stable At 0.2% As Estimated"
August 31st: "The revised estimate of 2Q18 Italian GDP data confirms the pace of growth has been weakening to 0.2%"
September 10th about the UK: "Gross domestic product in the three months to July was 0.6 percent higher than in the previous three-month period, the Office for National Statistics said, gathering pace from 0.4 percent growth in the three months to June"

Slower than only Estonia and Romania eh?
:rotfl:

I did say "This one I can almost guarantee that certain remainers will rush to deny in their apoplexy ." and I was proven correct.



https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/france-gdp-growth-stable-at-0-2-as-estimated-1027492382

https://think.ing.com/snaps/italy-istat-confirms-slowing-gdp-growth-in-2q18/

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy/uk-enjoys-fastest-growth-in-almost-a-year-after-world-cup-and-weather-boost-idUKKCN1LQ0VZ

Here are the updated figures released a few days ago.

You happen to have compared the UK with two of the most sluggish Q2 economies while brushing aside the Q1 figures.

The issue is not so much how well we are are doing when still an EU member ,but more the extent of the toxic shock as and when we leave the single market and customs union.

Low mid table mediocrity is a far cry from the 2016 boasts that we were the fastest growing economy
in the 28

If July was good for the U.K. then that will flow into the Q3 figures.Meanwhile,let’s compare like for like.

I assume you haven’t seen these figures

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/9102849/2-07092018-AP-EN/5ee25c3b-4e58-40df-9be9-7671859d6f37

antrobus

Herzlos wrote: »

...If I'm talking about far right here, I mean for the UK - the further right of the Tories, UKIP, BNP for instance.....

Further right of the BNP? National Action, I suppose, But they are a proscribed terror group. I think the NF and Combat 18 are still about.

Apart from a penchant for violence, none of 'em amount to much.