Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

ukcarper

Daniel54 wrote: »

It is lose/lose to such an extent that not responsible UK Government should be entetaining it as an option.

I agree both sides should be trying to avoid no deal.

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

6.9% of Spain's exports come to the UK
Spain exports more to Italy than to the UK
Spain exports more to Germany than to the UK
Spain exports more to France than to the UK
Spain exports more to Portugal than to the UK

No idea what you're on about with Cameron.

Nice stats with little meaning.
Here's what matters: Spain unemployment (latest figures, May 2018) 15.8%. Youth unemployment approx. 35%.
Trade with UK $22 billion.
Of course declining trade will affect not only the economy but employment, increasing one and decreasing the other - which way round seems different (and against the accepted norm) only to remainers.

El Pais is already grumbling about downturns in trade with the UK.
Think how much more grumbling there will be when holidaymakers abandon EU-based holidays, EU foods & cars if the EU sees tariffs and/or conditions as a result of their refusal to compromise with Brexit.

wunferall

We could see a return to north African holidays and more African & Israeli fruit & veg.
:T

Talking of which, will you miss me when I'm holidaying this time?
A little further afield than Europe or North Africa again; some of the regular remain dissenters on here ought to try holidaying more instead of spending their lives on an internet forum.
Then the blinkered opinions might be expanded somewhat.
Part 6 indeed.

ukcarper

mayonnaise wrote: »

6.9% of Spain's exports come to the UK
Spain exports more to Italy than to the UK
Spain exports more to Germany than to the UK
Spain exports more to France than to the UK
Spain exports more to Portugal than to the UK

No idea what you're on about with Cameron.

I believe that is for all goods and food is a bit higher, but even 7% is a big hit and I'm sure if a solution isn't found Spanish farmers won't be happy especially in short term.

Daniel54

We are as a country in a bad place and trapped in the arguments two years ago.Stepping back,to encourage discussion.

The key refererundum issues were sovereignty, immigration and the economy.

There were a number of leave templates which addressed these issues in different orders of priority.

Roland Smith from the Adam Smith institute analysed the votes and estimated that around 20% of the leave vote ( which is the side he sat on) prioritised sovereignty but economically supported a Norway style. EFTA/EEA outcome.These might be regarded as the floating voters in where we are heading.
https://medium.com/@WhiteWednesday/sizing-the-liberal-leave-position-858b0259547

The inflection point was not the referendum,but Mrs May /Nick Timothy's decision to set out red lines in the Lancaster House speech which ruled out the soft Brexit option.An interesting outside take on this ( and what has happened since) from the New Yorker.The allegation is that this policy view was taken without reference to her cabinet.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/30/theresa-mays-impossible-choice

In taking this step,Mrs May discounted the 48% who had voted otherwise.

These red lines pointed the UK towards a CETA plus or minus outcome.But her ambitions were for a bespoke deal that has never been on the table

Government could have chosen to press pause after the referendum in order to consider and consult on the best way forward for our country.They chose not to do so.Even worse,they triggered Article 50 without any clear or realistic plan that had the backing of Parliament and the public

Today a new poll suggests that sovereignty not immigration is the key driver.But we are trapped in a policy and negotiating position which assumes the opposite.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/new-polling-reveals-shift-from-immigration-to-sovereignty-as-the-priority/

It's a !!!!!!s muddle and Parliament is paralysed.

I have always been against asecond referendum,but am moving to the view that it might be the only way out of this mess,for good or bad.

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes I agree, things are definitely looking on the up in Spain.
Their unemployment rate was over 27% only 5 years ago and steadily falling ever since.
Thanks for sharing this tidbit of good news from the Eurozone.

I have no problem with the EU having good news.
Your interpretation of what good news actually is remains at best questionable though.
The UK was officially recovered from the recession long ago, with our economy growing faster than any other G7 nation in both 2013 and in 2014.

Try telling the Spanish unemployed that their economy has recovered and see if they agree. (I know the answer of many Spaniards, thank you.)
Yet the EU has been trying to tell the world that Spain is at last recovering!
Is that just lies, as not only unemployment figures suggest but the increase in inequality and increasing poverty, and abandoned/empty towns and airports. Were Spain booming these wouldn't exist.

Never mind, carry on dreaming that all is rosy in EULand.
Talking of which I see France's growth is struggling, currently half that of the UK's.
Italy was the same BTW, half the growth of the UK in the second quarter.
Makes your comments last year about the UK's growth seem as short-sighted as I thought they were.
:T

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes, I'll miss you a lot.
Happy holidays.

Thank you.

Even if you did decide to completely ignore what I suggested about how any affects of Brexit wouldn't exactly help Spaniards.
If the EU continue playing silly beggars and it affects UK/Spanish trade in any way, Spanish unemployment isn't magically going to decrease you know.

Daniel54

wunferall wrote: »

The UK was officially recovered from the recession long ago, with our economy growing faster than any other G7 nation in both 2013 and in 2014.
:T

Pre Brexit we were one of the fastest growing economies.

Is there any prticular reason why you discount data from eg the World Bank ( using OECD statistics) showing this is no longer the case ?

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU

wunferall

mayonnaise wrote: »

Unlike brexiteers, Spanish farmers will understand that disrupting trade with a UK market of 60 million will be preferable to undermining the single market with a potential customer base of 450 million + worldwide access to several size-able markets, (like the recently EU-Japan (population 120+ million) trade deal removing practically all tariffs).

This 'we are so important' mindset is still going strong I see.

This is a great example of what UK remainers are unable to grasp.
Forget your 450 million, these - despite being members of Club EU - 450 million are split amongst 27 different countries.
And the EU does not care about the individual countries which comprise the EU.

That's why Greece is the new @rse-end of Europe.
That's why Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary, Italy and many more are seeing a rise in populism.
They, unlike you, realise that this "the EU is so important" mindset as all smoke and mirrors.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

I'm far from happy with our negotiation, just as a pragmatist not idealist I'm disappointed that the commission is prepare to cause damage to many of member states, I wonder if Spanish farmers are as happy with Barnier as you are.

As a pragmatist; what do you think the commission should do?