Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

All the stuff that is definitely going to happen which you don't believe will.

It would take too long to list it all & you know it already.

I don't view Brexit as the only issue on the horizon. Will just be another challenge to address. Much like many previous days in the past. Life at a micro level is never endless bliss. Getting by is the majority of peoples greatest concern. There's no shortage of companies that want to sell you something you don't really need.

Moby

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/23/may-brexit-corbyn-cabinet-labour-leader

The torture Brexit inflicts on the English language escalates daily, the latest indignity being the euphemism coined after the tellingly named Brexit war cabinet had an eight-hour session among the whiteboards at Chequers on Thursday. Ambitious managed divergence was the agreed description for the planned future relationship between Britain and the EU, a phrase so blatantly designed to stitch together two clashing positions you could see the seams.

Divergence is there to satisfy the Johnson-Gove-Fox axis of Brexiteers, while managed is meant to placate the Hammond-Rudd rump of remain realists. Ambitious is the heroic attempt to dress up what is, in fact, a dollop of fudge chock-full of contradictions and likely to melt on first contact with the heat of trade talks in Brussels.

For it rests on the rather sweet belief that the 27 remaining EU states will allow Britain to converge where it suits us but diverge where we may gain a competitive advantage over them. This is the so-called three baskets theory, in which we divide our economy into three categories: one where standards and the like stay fully aligned with the EU, one where we have the option to diverge in future, and a third where we make a clean break.

Sounds appealing, right? And it certainly is to Britain. But there's no reason why the EU would even countenance it

.

.....so the plan is we ask for things to remain the same when it suits us but for us to diverge when it gives us a competitive advantage. Is that it! How successful do people think that negotiating position will be? Have we lost all sense of reality and self respect?.......but Brexiteers think it is Brussels that is being unreasonable. What a childish, ego centric view of the world that is and it is damaging all our futures......because when it is pointed out that selfish vision will not be countenanced the reaction is to self destructively crash out on WTO rules just so that you dont have to admit you were wrong!

gfplux

Tromking wrote: »

Any meat on the bones to that extrapolation.

Extremely worried citizens not knowing what will happen to them is sufficient reason to be on the list.
If you need to know more of the possible problems Google is your friend.

gfplux

tracey3596 wrote: »

Cogito's response says it all; many leavers like myself too are not interested in an "EU a-la-carte".

If the EU persist in their dogmatic "you can't" stance then WTO will be vastly preferable to the likely alternative and - as said - a huge number of UK firms that export already do so under WTO terms.
All that remains really is to see whether (following the further EU posturing which we know will come) the EU accept the likelihood of causing great damage to their economy and come to their senses.
Be honest, given recent EU history that possibility is not exactly a definite.

They haven't (as a supposed union) been able to reach agreement on migration after three years of bickering. Nor have they effectively been able to resolve the problem of nationalism across the EU despite warnings even before Brexit; hence the rise of extremism which is likely to increase this year with Italian elections and more.

So if the EU persist in their belligerence, WTO it might well be although you really cannot in those circumstances reasonably expect the UK to then give freely that which has value whatever it is.
As the saying goes; "you scratch my back ..."

The ever changing WTO rules, regulations and disputes.

From the last three days.

TRADE POLICY REVIEW: MALAYSIA
The seventh review of the trade policies and practices of Malaysia takes place on 14 and 16 February 2018. The basis for the review is a report by the WTO Secretariat and a report by the Government of Malaysia.
TPR documents: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tp466_e.htm

WTO MEMBERS CONSIDER INDIA’S REQUEST FOR COMPLIANCE PANEL IN DISPUTE OVER SOLAR CELLS
At a 9 February special meeting of the Dispute Settlement Body (DSB), WTO members considered India’s request for a panel to be established to examine India’s compliance with the recommendations and rulings of the DSB in a dispute over India’s domestic content requirements for solar cells and solar modules. The United States did not agree to the establishment of the compliance panel.
Summary of the meeting: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news18_e/dsb_09feb18_e.htm
Proposed items for consideration at the DSB: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news18_e/dsb_agenda_09feb18_e.htm

AZEVÊDO JOINS ACP BRAINSTORMING SESSION: ‘WE NEED TO EXPLORE INNOVATIVE WAYS FORWARD’
Speaking at a meeting of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States (ACP) at the WTO’s headquarters on 15 February, Director-General Roberto Azevêdo urged members to be ready to explore fresh perspectives and new pathways which may help move negotiations forward at the WTO. He also underlined the importance of development and the needs of least-developed countries and said he will continue working to ensure that the interests of the ACP remain at the centre of the WTO’s work in 2018 and beyond. The purpose of the meeting, which was organised by the ACP, was to reflect and brainstorm on the way forward after the 11th Ministerial Conference, held in Buenos Aires in December last year.
Speech: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/spra_e/spra211_e.htm

WTO ISSUES PANEL REPORT REGARDING KOREAN RESTRICTIONS ON JAPANESE FOOD IMPORTS
On 22 February the WTO circulated the panel report in the case brought by Japan in “Korea — Import Bans, and Testing and Certification Requirements for Radionuclides” (DS495).
Panel report: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news18_e/495r_e.htm

TRADE FACILITATION AGREEMENT MARKS FIRST ANNIVERSARY SINCE ENTRY INTO FORCE
The Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) marked its first anniversary since its entry into force on 22 February 2017 with WTO members making significant strides towards its implementation. WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo said members continue to work to fully implement the Agreement, which will benefit particularly developing and least developed countries.
News item: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news18_e/fac_22feb18_e.htm

WTO MEMBERS AGREE ON TIMETABLE TO REVIEW USE OF BALI TARIFF QUOTA MECHANISM
At a meeting of the Agriculture Committee on 20 February, WTO members agreed on a timeline to review the operation of the 2013 Bali Ministerial Decision on tariff rate quotas and discussed a review of the landmark Nairobi Decision to eliminate farm export subsidies. Norway, Israel and Canada reported they had submitted revised schedules, formalizing their promises to eliminate these subsidies.
News item: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news18_e/agcom_23feb18_e.htm

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The decline in uninsured foreign vehicles on the UK's roads won't go amiss. Big issue already.

Very good point. Perhaps it will be checked at the border. It should be.

gfplux

LHW99 wrote: »

As I said, I can understand why Gibraltar is worried, and may be affected negatively - despite not having been affected very positively all the time we've been in the EU.
However, I don't think the Falklands is the same - I don't know if there are any figures for how many Romanian, Hungarian etc people have chosen to use FoM to get jobs there? If it goes in the negatives list, i think it should also be in the positives - it may be positively affected as they should presumably get a set of exclusive waters which EU boats cannot just fish in as they will.

The fishing industry seem to be doing just fine within the confines of the EU. Future problems may include tariffs to import to the EU27. They will have to rely on the British Government remembering them when the trade talks are going on. Now wouldn!!!8217;t you worry about that.

https://www.falklands.gov.fk/self-sufficiency/commercial-sectors/fisheries/

gfplux

phillw wrote: »

All the stuff that is definitely going to happen which you don't believe will.

It would take too long to list it all & you know it already.

Don't worry, I don't actually expect you to change your mind. It's the only way remainers will keep the advantage.

Here is a small list to begin with.
If Britain were just to walk away ALL the following WOULD BE EFFECTED IN A NEGATIVE WAY.

A list of areas and industries that MAY be affected in a NEGATIVE way after or during Brexit updated at 23nd February 2018

higher roaming charges
Loss of EHIC medical support
British Cancer sufferers
Pet travel
British Students.
EU27 Students.
British Citizens living in the EU27
EU Citizens living in Britain
Belgian confectionary / chocolatiers
Danish pork industry
French agriculture
Spanish agriculture
Italian agriculture.
British Haulage industry
Any British manufacturing using EU components
Any British company with EU customers
Germanys car Industry
Dutch flower growers
Rotterdam Port
Dover already damaged by large numbers of non EU immigrants landing and not moving on. Will be further damaged after Brexit.
Calais already damaged due to large number of non EU immigrants congregating in attempting to gain entry to the UK. Will be further damaged after Brexit
French wine makers
Holyhead Port
People/businesses close to the N Ireland/ROI Border
ROI
Japanese car makers in Britain
British Farmers during the withdrawal of £3 billion a year subsidies.
London Financial business.
Seasonal workers from the old Eastern Europe.
Aviation Industry
Gibraltar
Anguilla
Falkland Islands
Other British Overseas Territories
Big sporting events such as rugby World Cups Due to staffing issues.
Pharmaceutical approval.
Driving Licences
Car Insurance.

Theophile

Moby wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/23/may-brexit-corbyn-cabinet-labour-leader
.

.....so the plan is we ask for things to remain the same when it suits us but for us to diverge when it gives us a competitive advantage. Is that it! How successful do people think that negotiating position will be? Have we lost all sense of reality and self respect?.......but Brexiteers think it is Brussels that is being unreasonable. What a childish, ego centric view of the world that is and it is damaging all our futures......because when it is pointed out that selfish vision will not be countenanced the reaction is to self destructively crash out on WTO rules just so that you dont have to admit you were wrong!

Traveling in Europe at the moment and it's striking how the press here barely reports on this.
Europe has moved on and has totally lost interest in our foot stamping and dummy spitting.

Tromking

Moby wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/23/may-brexit-corbyn-cabinet-labour-leader
.

.....so the plan is we ask for things to remain the same when it suits us but for us to diverge when it gives us a competitive advantage. Is that it! How successful do people think that negotiating position will be? Have we lost all sense of reality and self respect?.......but Brexiteers think it is Brussels that is being unreasonable. What a childish, ego centric view of the world that is and it is damaging all our futures......because when it is pointed out that selfish vision will not be countenanced the reaction is to self destructively crash out on WTO rules just so that you dont have to admit you were wrong!

Chill Moby, its all part of the rough and tumble of negotiations.:)

Tromking

https://www.kommers.se/In-English/In-Focus/2018/New-report-Recommendations-for-Swedish-priorities-in-upcoming-Brexit-negotiations/

This piece of work by the Swedish Board of Trade is being reported by the BBC as an example of the EU Commission's 'one size fits all' policy toward Brexit starting to creak.
This obviously won't stop your average Remainiac hanging on the every word of an unelected Brussels Eurocrat of course.