Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

LHW99 wrote: »

I don't quite follow how the Falklands would be affected in any way by Brexit - their issue is with Argentina wishing them to quietly agree to become a part of South America.
Gibraltar I can understand their worries, although I'm not sure they have had much help from us being in the EU, Spain had still caused them problems from time to time despite the number of Spanish citizens who work there and the EU just looks away, as with Spain / Catalonia.

As far as "Primacy of UK parliament"= "taking back control", it does, although "taking back control" covers three aspects IMO - Parliamentary supremacy, Border / immigration controls based on UK priorities (ie not on FoM) and control of where and in what areas we offer free trade agreements.
You could realistically argue taking back fishing rights is "taking back control"

Falklands, Gibralter and all the other British Overseas Territories are all presently members of the EU. They MAY be effected negatively as they will see no benefit from limiting immigration or from any new trade deals Britain signs from our present knowledge.
Losing membership of the EU MAY effect them negatively.

British Fishermen it has been claimed on numerous occasions (will) may benefit positively.
The idea of the list is NOT to explain why something is effected positively or negatively. Various postings, politicians and talking heads have made the claims so I have included them.

gfplux

Theophile wrote: »

'Good' is not the word I'd use, but yes, she's slowly but surely steering in the right direction.
From 'a clean break in March 2019', we're now talking about convergence and divergence. Even an open ended transition phase is now being mooted.
The 'no deal is better than a bad deal' mantra has also been dropped and it now looks pretty certain there will be a deal.
Her tone on migration has shifted also. I remember Tory conference speeches on naming and shaming companies that dare to employ EU citizens. Gone out of the window also.
Theresa May will give us the softest of Brexits (BINO) and we all should get behind her.

In fact Theresa May is actually asking the EU for an open ended transition deal. This is likely but not certain to mean that freedom of movement will continue for some years yet.
Is she a remainer sitting inside a Trojen Horse?

Tromking

Moby wrote: »

Anyway are you sure May can get the no customs deal through the commons. There are lots of remainer MP's in the tory party.

I'm not sure at all.:)
Doesn't the Government losing a key vote like that bring the Government down? I'm not sure Soubry et al will want the collapse of their own Government on their CV.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Go on, then. Tell us why you believe that.

Security; He's not asking us to pay for their security, he's asking for us to continue information sharing and co-operation. This is something he'd expect from anyone in NATO (and equivalents) and has nothing to do with any deals.

Services; services are covered by the 4 freedoms, which we don't want a part of. So without cherry picking, we don't get freedom of services.
As far as I'm aware, he's not asking us to pay anything to just get access to trade (if we take the Canada option).

ukcarper

Moby wrote: »

What will be detrimental to Labour voters is a tanking economy. Leaving without a customs deal will ensure we become much poorer. Everyone knows that. The areas which will be most badly affected if that happens are those areas already marginalised economically....Wales, the North, parts of the Midlands etc.

I still think Labour will lose votes if they come out in favour of a custom union if they could get one that excluded ECJ and FOM it might not be so bad for them, but EU have ruled that out.

cogito

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It was made abundantly clear in advance.

There will be no cherry picking, no EU a la carte.

We can either have a Canada style trade deal for goods only (no services), or a Norway/Switzerland style membership of the EEA/EFTA which gives access to the single market on preferential terms, or we can crash out onto WTO terms for the worst deal of all.

I and many other leavers don't have the slightest interest in EU a la carte. Nor do I believe the 'crash out' nonsense that we hear from the remain camp. If we were to end up with WTO, that would not be a leap into the unknown but a leap into the familiar for the great number of UK companies that already conduct trade on those terms. Certainly leaving on WRO terms would be better than the 'half in, half out' customs union that is floating around Labour circles at the moment as well as being proposed by the ridiculous Soubry.

But everything comes at a price including the UK's provision of intelligence services to the EU which they are unable to adequately do for themselves.

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

Falklands, Gibralter and all the other British Overseas Territories are all presently members of the EU. They MAY be effected negatively as they will see no benefit from limiting immigration or from any new trade deals Britain signs from our present knowledge.
Losing membership of the EU MAY effect them negatively.

Any meat on the bones to that extrapolation.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

Their constituencies may have, it doesn't mean their voters did, every study has shown most Labour voters voted Remain by a fair margin, in spite of lukewarm support for the cause by the Labour leadership during the referendum.

Labour will no doubt claim their approach addresses people's concerns around immigration while also protecting the economy, I think that will play reasonably well, if done with skill, even with a lot of their Leave voters.

If Labour came out in support of a mad rush to a hard Brexit, its hard to see how that would be acceptable to much of its support.

35% voted leave not an insignificant number but like all the major parties Labour are in a difficult position and will lose votes one way or another if they come off fence.

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

Has anyone got full access to the Daily Telegraph? I'd like to better understand what this is about:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/22/uk-driving-licences-may-no-longer-recognised-europe-brexit-eu/

I googled and the story is covered by a number of newspapers
This is a link no paywall.
https://inews.co.uk/news/uk-driving-licences-may-rejected-eu-brexit/
Quote
UK driving licences will no longer be recognised by the EU after Brexit, the European Commission has suggested. Motorists with UK-issued licences could be prohibited from driving in Europe if the EU refuses to accept the documents post-Brexit and no other arrangement has been put in place.
END QUOTE.

This is like so so many things that MUST be discussed and agree before Brexit. It is very likely this will be discussed and agreed BUT could slip by.
Therefore
Driving Licences MAY be effected NEGATIVELY.

Talking of driving. I am old, very old. So I remember how it was driving from Britain to the Continent on holiday before Britain joined the EU.
If memory serves I had to get and PAY for a green card so my car was properly insured. This MIGHT be the case after Brexit so...
Car Insurance MAY be effected NEGATIVELY.

gfplux

Todays update including the two mentioned in the post above.

A list of areas and industries that may be affected in a NEGATIVE way after or during Brexit at 23nd February 2018

higher roaming charges
Loss of EHIC medical support
British Cancer sufferers
Pet travel
British Students.
EU27 Students.
British Citizens living in the EU27
EU Citizens living in Britain
Belgian confectionary / chocolatiers
Danish pork industry
French agriculture
Spanish agriculture
Italian agriculture.
British Haulage industry
Any British manufacturing using EU components
Any British company with EU customers
Germanys car Industry
Dutch flower growers
Rotterdam Port
Dover already damaged by large numbers of non EU immigrants landing and not moving on. Will be further damaged after Brexit.
Calais already damaged due to large number of non EU immigrants congregating in attempting to gain entry to the UK. Will be further damaged after Brexit
French wine makers
Holyhead Port
People/businesses close to the N Ireland/ROI Border
ROI
Japanese car makers in Britain
British Farmers during the withdrawal of £3 billion a year subsidies.
London Financial business.
Seasonal workers from the old Eastern Europe.
Aviation Industry
Gibraltar
Anguilla
Falkland Islands
Other British Overseas Territories
Big sporting events such as rugby World Cups Due to staffing issues.
Pharmaceutical approval.
Driving Licences
Car Insurance.