Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

tracey3596

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It was made abundantly clear in advance.

There will be no cherry picking, no EU a la carte.

We can either have a Canada style trade deal for goods only (no services), or a Norway/Switzerland style membership of the EEA/EFTA which gives access to the single market on preferential terms, or we can crash out onto WTO terms for the worst deal of all.

Cogito's response says it all; many leavers like myself too are not interested in an "EU a-la-carte".

If the EU persist in their dogmatic "you can't" stance then WTO will be vastly preferable to the likely alternative and - as said - a huge number of UK firms that export already do so under WTO terms.
All that remains really is to see whether (following the further EU posturing which we know will come) the EU accept the likelihood of causing great damage to their economy and come to their senses.
Be honest, given recent EU history that possibility is not exactly a definite.

They haven't (as a supposed union) been able to reach agreement on migration after three years of bickering. Nor have they effectively been able to resolve the problem of nationalism across the EU despite warnings even before Brexit; hence the rise of extremism which is likely to increase this year with Italian elections and more.

So if the EU persist in their belligerence, WTO it might well be although you really cannot in those circumstances reasonably expect the UK to then give freely that which has value whatever it is.
As the saying goes; "you scratch my back ..."

Rinoa

THEN

On June 1, 2016, just days before the referendum StrongerIn payed a trump card. Airbus and Siemens publicly warned of the risk that they would leave Britain, if Britain left the EU. It was one of the most credible arguments of Project Fear from CEOs of respected giant industrial firms. Siemens, the bluechip German engineering giant, could go home. Airbus in particular, the champion and political symbol of multi-national cooperation, would probably come under pressure to re-trench. Britain’s multi-billion aerospace industry and engineering base would be at risk.

NOW

Yesterday brought the icing on the cake, Bloomberg revealed that the Airbus Chief Executive Officer Tom Enders has written to the Business Secretary Greg Clark promising the U.K. government that Airbus plans to retain its British operations “long into the future’’ – this from the most europhile of CEOs. Project Fear’s strongest cards turned out to be bluffs.

The same people who bluffed before now say if Brexit happens it will be a disaster for the economy. Ignore what they say and instead follow the money. Investment banks like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are spending billions on new headquarters in London, europhile Bloomberg too. The Brexodus of big business is not happening, instead they are investing billions for the long term. Brexit is going to be great…

https://order-order.com/2018/02/23/europes-great-symbol-industrial-cooperation-airbus-staying-britain/

Another remainer lie bites the dust.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Car Insurance MAY be effected NEGATIVELY.

The decline in uninsured foreign vehicles on the UK's roads won't go amiss. Big issue already.

Rough_Justice

A report today from the BBC explaining why Juncker, Macron & Merkel's plan for increasing federalism in the EU looks doomed to fail - even if as usual the biggest blocs stick together to push plans through.

During the socialist era, journalist Tibor Macak says, there was more security, more certainty.

And now? "Living standards aren't the same as those in other member states. In Germany they earn four times what we get. If we're talking about the European Union, it should be equal."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-43157234

Right at then end is the rally interesting bit which confirms both why increasing federalism will prove difficult and also suggests just how coercive the EU really are. Again.

This week Ms Merkel issued a veiled threat with regard to the next EU budget.

"In the next distribution of structural funds," she said, "we need to redefine the allocation criteria to reflect the preparedness of regions and authorities to receive and integrate migrants."

For that in plain English read "you will take your share of migrants or we will cut what cash we give you".
Trouble is on the way by the looks of that.

Rough_Justice

Is this a sign of how (un)popular Jean-Claude Juncker is amongst the EU27?
He was the first to be selected via the Spitzenkandidat system but today leaders of the EU27 have rejected the automatic mechanism to select the next EU Commission President.
This being the EU of course, that doesn't necessarily mean that it won't happen any way.

The conversation among EU leaders on Friday focused on the question of “automaticity” — whether the Council could legally commit in advance to automatically putting forward one of the lead candidates as its nominee. The answer, according to officials who observed the discussion, was a unanimous and resounding “no.”

The lead candidate process is not spelled out in the EU treaties, and it is controversial, with supporters insisting it is more democratic and critics saying it strips the Council and Parliament of their authority and duty to pick the best candidate, forcing them instead to accept the winner of a system driven by party insiders.

https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-spitzenkandidat-eu-leaders-we-wont-be-bound-by-spitzenkandidat-process/

phillw

cogito wrote: »

I and many other leavers don't have the slightest interest in EU a la carte. Nor do I believe the 'crash out' nonsense that we hear from the remain camp.

The biggest problem for you is that you're not going to be prepared when it happens.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

The biggest problem for you is that you're not going to be prepared when it happens.

Prepared for what precisely?

LHW99

Falklands, Gibralter and all the other British Overseas Territories are all presently members of the EU. They MAY be effected negatively as they will see no benefit from limiting immigration or from any new trade deals Britain signs from our present knowledge.
Losing membership of the EU MAY effect them negatively.

As I said, I can understand why Gibraltar is worried, and may be affected negatively - despite not having been affected very positively all the time we've been in the EU.
However, I don't think the Falklands is the same - I don't know if there are any figures for how many Romanian, Hungarian etc people have chosen to use FoM to get jobs there? If it goes in the negatives list, i think it should also be in the positives - it may be positively affected as they should presumably get a set of exclusive waters which EU boats cannot just fish in as they will.

Moby

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/23/eu-pours-cold-water-on-uk-hopes-of-chequers-brexit-breakthrough

Like I said the EU will play hardball with us and the best we can hope tor now is vassal state status.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Prepared for what precisely?

All the stuff that is definitely going to happen which you don't believe will.

It would take too long to list it all & you know it already.

Don't worry, I don't actually expect you to change your mind. It's the only way remainers will keep the advantage.