Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

westernpromise

Theresa May is turning out to be rather a good Prime Minister.

Moby

ukcarper wrote: »

That will put cat among pigeons but with 35% of Labour Voters voting leave joining a custom union would be detrimental to Labour vote.

What will be detrimental to Labour voters is a tanking economy. Leaving without a customs deal will ensure we become much poorer. Everyone knows that. The areas which will be most badly affected if that happens are those areas already marginalised economically....Wales, the North, parts of the Midlands etc.

Theophile

westernpromise wrote: »

Theresa May is turning out to be rather a good Prime Minister.

'Good' is not the word I'd use, but yes, she's slowly but surely steering in the right direction.
From 'a clean break in March 2019', we're now talking about convergence and divergence. Even an open ended transition phase is now being mooted.
The 'no deal is better than a bad deal' mantra has also been dropped and it now looks pretty certain there will be a deal.
Her tone on migration has shifted also. I remember Tory conference speeches on naming and shaming companies that dare to employ EU citizens. Gone out of the window also.
Theresa May will give us the softest of Brexits (BINO) and we all should get behind her.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

It's in the manifesto if you care to read it. The same commitments that every party other than the LibDems and Greens made.

It's an 88 page document, of almost entire doublespeak. Can you do me a favour and narrow it down for me?

Herzlos

westernpromise wrote: »

Theresa May is turning out to be rather a good Prime Minister.

You're going to have to quantify that a bit.

It seems like she's now starting to make the noises a competent PM would have been making 18 months ago.

Still, it's not too late to do a good job of Brexit, but I don't think even that would cause many to call her a good PM.

Tromking

Moby wrote: »

What will be detrimental to Labour voters is a tanking economy. Leaving without a customs deal will ensure we become much poorer. Everyone knows that. The areas which will be most badly affected if that happens are those areas already marginalised economically....Wales, the North, parts of the Midlands etc.

That's the metropolitan Labour argument you make there Moby.
FWIW, that's my vote lost from Labour next time around.
Although I live a rural constituency where any chinless Tory wins, Labour came an unbelievable 2nd in the polls in the last GE, albeit a very distant runner up.
This IMO amounts to a Labour Brexit betrayal and a re-embracing of the Blairite majority in the PLP.
I thought Corbyn was playing a clever game with his Brexit strategy, who knows now though?
What price another General Election in the spring?

Filo25

Most Labour support is pro-Remain so I'm unsurprised they appear to be eventually coming around to a slightly (although not hugely ) more Europhile position than the Tories, its also a sensible position for them at a high level, as always the devil will be in the detail but outside the Single Market, inside the Customs Union gives a sop to both sides, enables control of immigration while still giving something to the Remainers and industry.

I suspect they also have the votes in Parliament to push through that approach which would be a massive defeat for the Tories so from a purely Party political point of view it makes sense for them as well

Theophile

If Labour can get their act together, remaining in the Customs Union looks like a certainty now.
Theresa knows it and has kicked the vote on it into the long grass (April at least)

Tromking wrote: »

FWIW, that's my vote lost from Labour next time around.

As you're in a safe Tory seat, your vote doesn't really matter.

Tromking

Filo25 wrote: »

Most Labour support is pro-Remain so I'm unsurprised they appear to be eventually coming around to a slightly (although not hugely ) more Europhile position than the Tories, its also a sensible position for them at a high level, as always the devil will be in the detail but outside the Single Market, inside the Customs Union gives a sop to both sides, enables control of immigration while still giving something to the Remainers and industry.

I suspect they also have the votes in Parliament to push through that approach which would be a massive defeat for the Tories so from a purely Party political point of view it makes sense for them as well

I heard a stat last night that said 70% of Labour constituencies voted leave.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

I heard a stat last night that said 70% of Labour constituencies voted leave.

Their constituencies may have, it doesn't mean their voters did, every study has shown most Labour voters voted Remain by a fair margin, in spite of lukewarm support for the cause by the Labour leadership during the referendum.

Labour will no doubt claim their approach addresses people's concerns around immigration while also protecting the economy, I think that will play reasonably well, if done with skill, even with a lot of their Leave voters.

If Labour came out in support of a mad rush to a hard Brexit, its hard to see how that would be acceptable to much of its support.