the snap general election thread

antrobus

davomcdave wrote: »

She's also behind 28%:47% in the polls. Apart from that though the SNP has had its day.

A 28% share in Scotland would be a Conservative success.

It was 15% in 2015.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland

antrobus

Mistermeaner wrote: »

...A great move by May IMO

Perhaps she believes the latest ComRes poll?

The Conservative Party have gained four points since March and are now polling at 46%, 21 points ahead of Labour, who are on 25%.

Con 46% (+4)
Lab 25% (NC)
LD 11% (-1)
UKIP 9% (-1)
SNP 4% (-1)
Green 4% (NC)
Other 2% (NC)

http://www.comresglobal.com/polls/independent-sunday-mirror-political-poll-april-2017/

BobQ

I suspect that May is absolutely fed up with dealing with a divided cabinet and parliament and has tried to spin this to be a chance to unite the country and create certainty.

So we have a Brexit election in which parties will need to declare their position on Brexit and nobody will be interested in any of the other issues.

It will be interesting to see what happens if people vote on Brexit lines.

I imagine whatever happens Corbyn will be gone since the Tories will make his credibility an key issue.

But we might see a revival in the Lib Dems as anyone who wants to have a second referendum, opposes Brexit, hates the notion of a hard Brexit or thinks the May government is unfair may vote for them

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

But we might see a revival in the Lib Dems as anyone who wants to have a second referendum, opposes Brexit, hates the notion of a hard Brexit or thinks the May government is unfair may vote for them

Can't see a swing from UKIP to the Lib Dems though.

antrobus

The last YouGov poll had a similar result

Con 44%
Lab 23%
LD 12%
UKIP 10%
Other 10%

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/

Gadzooks, boys and girls, if you are 21 points ahead why wouldn't you call an election?

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

Cant way to see how the Remainers cope with May winning a bomb proof Brexit mandate.

It will not make any difference if she does, the negotiations towards a "hard Brexit" will continue. Any one who fails to embrace the hard Brexit vision will be crushed. The silver lining will be the resignation of Corbyn and probably a revival of the Lib Dems.

What will Brexiters do if she does not get the mandate you expect?

BobQ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Can't see a swing from UKIP to the Lib Dems though.

I agree but what about the soft Brexit and remain elements of the Conservative Party? Will they use it as a chance to protest against a hard Brexit?

System

I think i need a reminder of what brexit means

antrobus

BobQ wrote: »

..What will Brexiters do if she does not get the mandate you expect?

What kind of mandate do you think that Brexiters expect?

A 21 point lead would imply a Con Majority of 144 according to this Election Polling, compared to the 2015 majority of 10.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015

I'd have thought that anything between those two numbers would be a win and amount to a 'mandate'.:)

Thrugelmir

BobQ wrote: »

I agree but what about the soft Brexit and remain elements of the Conservative Party? Will they use it as a chance to protest against a hard Brexit?

I don't buy this soft/hard argument. Brexit will be whatever the outcome is. The UK simply needs to get on with it's own business. Politicians after all are the most temporary of beings. The landscape so can quickly change. Further integration of the EU itself isn't without considerable challenges. The UK may well benefit from the internal ruptions.