the snap general election thread

BobQ

antrobus wrote: »

What kind of mandate do you think that Brexiters expect?

A 21 point lead would imply a Con Majority of 144 according to this Election Polling, compared to the 2015 majority of 10.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015

I'd have thought that anything between those two numbers would be a win and amount to a 'mandate'.:)

Of course it would be. My question was intended for Conrad. It is likely she will win but the last PM to say back me or sack me was shocked by the reply and this is unusual in that she appears to be fighting the election on a Hard Brexit which might have unforeseen consequences. She is unlikely to say any more about the policy on Brexit, the other parties could if they choose campaign against a hard Brexit, for a referendum on the terms, or whatever.

wotsthat

BobQ wrote: »

Of course it would be. My question was intended for Conrad. It is likely she will win but the last PM to say back me or sack me was shocked by the reply and this is unusual in that she appears to be fighting the election on a Hard Brexit which might have unforeseen consequences. She is unlikely to say any more about the policy on Brexit, the other parties could if they choose campaign against a hard Brexit, for a referendum on the terms, or whatever.

She's said the GE is to 'make a success out of Brexit'. She's going to struggle to avoid talking about Tory brexit policy without outlining what that success looks like.

Unless it's another Brexit means Brexit mantra.

Conrad

Most callers to LBC and media commentators saying it's an election on Brexit.


Will the Remainers be wheeling out Project Fear 2?


If not, what's the Remain message this time?

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

Most callers to LBC and media commentators saying it's an election on Brexit.

Will the Remainers be wheeling out Project Fear 2?

If not, what's the Remain message this time?

For someone who embraces change you don't half get stuck in the past. There isn't going to be a remain campaign.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

She's said the GE is to 'make a success out of Brexit'. She's going to struggle to avoid talking about Tory brexit policy without outlining what that success looks like.

For the majority of people hardly likely to notice any real difference.

Malthusian

wotsthat wrote: »

She's said the GE is to 'make a success out of Brexit'. She's going to struggle to avoid talking about Tory brexit policy without outlining what that success looks like.

There's a reason general elections are rarely fought on foreign trade policy. There are two parties involved in the negotiation and we are only voting for the leadership of one of them.

It is impossible to win an argument about what Brexit should look like with a Remoaner because if you say "I think we should have freedom of movement" they retort "well the EU won't let us have freedom of movement". And if you say "I think we shouldn't have freedom of movement" they retort "well the EU won't let us not have freedom of movement if we want any trade at all".

Obviously the idea that the EU might shut down all UK trade into the EU is absurd, but it does not matter - the Remainder philosophy is that the EU is an all-powerful entity at which the UK is utterly at mercy, and this conscious self-disempowerment is their answer to everything.

So May would be very stupid to campaign on what Tory policy is and what success looks like. If she says "Vote Conservative and we'll negotiate for freedom of movement / no freedom of movement" there are any number of Eurocrats that will take great delight in saying "We won't allow the UK to have freedom of movement / no freedom of movement" just to cause mischief - which will then be splashed all over the papers and social media causing her great embarrassment even if it doesn't harm the Tories' chances. The question being asked is which party you most trust to handle the process. If you think that's Corbyn's lot then good luck.

Moby

Malthusian wrote: »

There's a reason general elections are rarely fought on foreign trade policy. There are two parties involved in the negotiation and we are only voting for the leadership of one of them.

It is impossible to win an argument about what Brexit should look like with a Remoaner because if you say "I think we should have freedom of movement" they retort "well the EU won't let us have freedom of movement". And if you say "I think we shouldn't have freedom of movement" they retort "well the EU won't let us not have freedom of movement if we want any trade at all".

Obviously the idea that the EU might shut down all UK trade into the EU is absurd, but it does not matter - the Remainder philosophy is that the EU is an all-powerful entity at which the UK is utterly at mercy, and this conscious self-disempowerment is their answer to everything.

So May would be very stupid to campaign on what Tory policy is and what success looks like. If she says "Vote Conservative and we'll negotiate for freedom of movement / no freedom of movement" there are any number of Eurocrats that will take great delight in saying "We won't allow the UK to have freedom of movement / no freedom of movement" just to cause mischief - which will then be splashed all over the papers and social media causing her great embarrassment even if it doesn't harm the Tories' chances. The question being asked is which party you most trust to handle the process. If you think that's Corbyn's lot then good luck.

It doesn't matter what May says during the campaign. It's what she does with a much bigger majority that matters. Accepting that..... when as you put it she handles the process she will do it from a position of strength.........she is no hard Brexiteer and clearly wants to stay closer to the rest of Europe than the right wing idealogues will allow her to at present, (remember she was a remainer). That means a softer Brexit than Redwood, Davis, Fox etc would have her forced into otherwise. The detail of this will be what will we surrender to keep access to the single market...a big mandate will give May more manoeuverability in relation to this than she would otherwise have with the loons breathing on her neck.

wotsthat

Malthusian wrote: »

So May would be very stupid to campaign on what Tory policy is and what success looks like. If she says "Vote Conservative and we'll negotiate for freedom of movement / no freedom of movement" there are any number of Eurocrats that will take great delight in saying "We won't allow the UK to have freedom of movement / no freedom of movement" just to cause mischief - which will then be splashed all over the papers and social media causing her great embarrassment even if it doesn't harm the Tories' chances. The question being asked is which party you most trust to handle the process. If you think that's Corbyn's lot then good luck.

Read that back to yourself.

Mrs May has said the GE is to ensure a success of Brexit but you're cool with her not saying what success means and not campaigning on Tory policy.

Really?

Rinoa

No TV debates apparently.

The remainers will be apoplectic.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-general-election-debates-not-take-part-jeremy-corbyn-tory-party-leader-conservatives-lib-a7689361.html

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Read that back to yourself.

Mrs May has said the GE is to ensure a success of Brexit but you're cool with her not saying what success means and not campaigning on Tory policy.

Really?

Brussels itself has already indicated that it wants a tough negotiating stance. The tone is set.