the snap general election thread

michaels

I have to say I am surpised, the moment to call an election would surely have been after invoking article 50 to then stand on a platform of Brexit means Brexit (whatever that means).

I thought May did not want to call an election because she is luke warm on Brexit and the current parliamentary arithmetic would result in a fairly soft Brexit whereas with a big Tory majority (the most likely outcome of an election and obivously the expectation in calling one) we would be much more likely to see a hard Brexit.

Curious - perhaps she thinks the Tories will not do that well and can use that as leverage in negotiating a soft Brexit.

michaels

What do we think the arrithmetic looks like?

Remainers may vote cross party lines so in general voting labour or libdem to try to unseat Tories.

On the other hand in labour/tory marginals labours weakness and brexit supporting labour voters may lead to a labour to tory swing.

UKIP voters may swing to the tories to try to make sure brexit is delivered...

I can't look at work - does Betfair have a market on number of seats?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

I thought May did not want to call an election because she is luke warm on Brexit and the current parliamentary arithmetic would result in a fairly soft Brexit whereas with a big Tory majority (the most likely outcome of an election and obivously the expectation in calling one) we would be much more likely to see a hard Brexit.

What determines a soft or hard Brexit? I would say the Governments of the EU not Westminster.

mubeye

wotsthat wrote: »

Labour will have to go for it. They'll be bricking it but the silver lining for them is that a big defeat will mean the end of Corbyn.

:T

Oh I do hope so. Disaster from day 1.

michaels

I would have thought we could buy a soft Brexit by offering to pay enough, basically exactly in the same positon we are now but no influence on policy making, no MEPS fairly easily. If we want something different then it is as you say a matter of getting an agreement but there is also a no agreement position which is obviously the hardest Brexit possible.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

I would have thought we could buy a soft Brexit by offering to pay enough, basically exactly in the same positon we are now but no influence on policy making, no MEPS fairly easily. If we want something different then it is as you say a matter of getting an agreement but there is also a no agreement position which is obviously the hardest Brexit possible.

Do you think it's that simple.

davomcdave

michaels wrote: »

I can't look at work - does Betfair have a market on number of seats?

Not yet.

Tories are 5-1 on to win an overall majority with Labour 31-1 against and 11-2 against no overall majority.

It look like Betfair is in the process of loading up the markets. There's no liquidity yet so it's all a bit silly.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

UKIP voters may swing to the tories to try to make sure brexit is delivered...

Brexit is happening........ There's no turning back.

Graham_Devon

michaels wrote: »

I have to say I am surpised, the moment to call an election would surely have been after invoking article 50 to then stand on a platform of Brexit means Brexit (whatever that means).

I thought May did not want to call an election because she is luke warm on Brexit and the current parliamentary arithmetic would result in a fairly soft Brexit whereas with a big Tory majority (the most likely outcome of an election and obivously the expectation in calling one) we would be much more likely to see a hard Brexit.

Curious - perhaps she thinks the Tories will not do that well and can use that as leverage in negotiating a soft Brexit.

It is rather interesting timing, but on the other hand, you look at how it's very much in her interest to do it now and you can see why it's gone ahead.

She did rule a mid term election out though quite vocally in September of last year. So it's a bit of a U-Turn.

Moby

michaels wrote: »

I have to say I am surpised, the moment to call an election would surely have been after invoking article 50 to then stand on a platform of Brexit means Brexit (whatever that means).

I thought May did not want to call an election because she is luke warm on Brexit and the current parliamentary arithmetic would result in a fairly soft Brexit whereas with a big Tory majority (the most likely outcome of an election and obivously the expectation in calling one) we would be much more likely to see a hard Brexit.

Curious - perhaps she thinks the Tories will not do that well and can use that as leverage in negotiating a soft Brexit.

I think it's the other way around. May is hostage to the tory right wing brexit loons at present. A big majority will get them off her back and she will go for a softer brexit. The markets seem to think this as well. Luke Bartholomew, of the investment firm Aberdeen Asset Management, said: "The election should hand Theresa May a much bigger mandate to stand up to the harder line, anti-EU backbenchers which currently hold a disproportionate sway over her party's stance on Brexit. "That would be welcomed by financial markets," he added.