the snap general election thread

wotsthat

Moby wrote: »

I think it's the other way around. May is hostage to the tory right wing brexit loons at present. A big majority will get them off her back and she will go for a softer brexit. The markets seem to think this as well. Luke Bartholomew, of the investment firm Aberdeen Asset Management, said: "The election should hand Theresa May a much bigger mandate to stand up to the harder line, anti-EU backbenchers which currently hold a disproportionate sway over her party's stance on Brexit. "That would be welcomed by financial markets," he added.

Sterling is a good proxy for determining whether an event is thought to lead to a harder or softer brexit. Harder brexit news = pound falls. Softer brexit news = pound strengthens.

Sterling up over 1% today supports your view IMO.

Tiners

Well no time with this one for the usual pre-election pumping up of house prices to give that all important economic feel good factor, perhaps they're willing to finally let the property market do what it's been trying to do for a long time now and 'suffer' a correction, they've then got a few years grace before they have to worry about inflating the bubble again for the next GE.

Conrad

Cant way to see how the Remainers cope with May winning a bomb proof Brexit mandate.

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

Sterling up over 1% today supports your view IMO.

City people have been tipping the pound for a while now saying it's under valued. Central Banks have been piling into Sterling lately (was reported in the FT).

wotsthat

Tiners wrote: »

Well no time with this one for the usual pre-election pumping up of house prices to give that all important economic feel good factor, perhaps they're willing to finally let the property market do what it's been trying to do for a long time now and 'suffer' a correction, they've then got a few years grace before they have to worry about inflating the bubble again for the next GE.

The government can tweak house prices to peak just before a GE?

If they're so skilled they must be keeping A&E waiting times and the deficit high just for fun.

Thrugelmir

Graham_Devon wrote: »

She did rule a mid term election out though quite vocally in September of last year. So it's a bit of a U-Turn.

6 months is a long time in politics. As anyone that follows Scottish events knows.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

City people have been tipping the pound for a while now saying it's under valued. Central Banks have been piling into Sterling lately (was reported in the FT).

Yeah. It's just a coincidence that Sterling happened to jump 1% on the same day an election was called.

michaels

wotsthat wrote: »

Sterling is a good proxy for determining whether an event is thought to lead to a harder or softer brexit. Harder brexit news = pound falls. Softer brexit news = pound strengthens.

Sterling up over 1% today supports your view IMO.

Hmm - I just think that currently the Lords and the oppostion can exert quite a lot of leverage due to the small majority whereas post a GE there are likely to be more Tories all of whom will have stood on a fairly hard Brexit platform and thus there will be less scope for May to be 'forced' into making compromises, House of Lords intervetion etc. Perhaps she is pre-empting a split where right wing Labour MPs and Left wing pro-Europe Tories form a new centre party....

michaels

Thrugelmir wrote: »

6 months is a long time in politics. As anyone that follows Scottish events knows.

Yes but...why now, why not after invoking A50? What has changed in the last 3 weeks? (Or is it simply calendar arithmetic, 29th March was too late to concide with the early May local elections and no one wants a vote 2 weeks after the previous vote and it also 'needs' to be after half term when Tory voters are on holiday).

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Yes but...why now, why not after invoking A50? What has changed in the last 3 weeks? (Or is it simply calendar arithmetic, 29th March was too late to concide with the early May local elections and no one wants a vote 2 weeks after the previous vote and it also 'needs' to be after half term when Tory voters are on holiday).

After A50 was summer recess. May wasn't even elected PM until 11th July. Too late for GE. As is the measure of the individual. Seems to be a person who wants to understand the finer details of everything not jump to snap decisions.

As for timing look at HoC recess dates. Today was first day back after Easter recess. 8th June is 3 days after Whitsun recess. Also diary will be full of EU meetings etc.