the snap general election thread

Joe_Horner

michaels wrote: »

Bookies got 2015 and brexit wrong

By this point in the game bookies odds are far more indicative of where money's been placed than the actual chance of an event happening.

So at best they reflect expectations amongst the betting pubic but that doesn't necessarily translate into what those same people will vote, let alone everyone else.

System

My current way of predicting what's going to happen is to believe the opposite of what social media says. Learnt that in the last year.

So, conservative win.

Arklight

Social media is an echo chamber. But it's used by the young, who are pro Corbyn. If they actually turn out and vote this time, and the Tories suffer from low turnout in marginals, as I suspect they might, then Thursday night could be quite interesting.

Joe_Horner

Arklight wrote: »

Social media is an echo chamber.

To a point, but no more than many people's print news habits. Few people nowadays take a range of newspapers, so they also live in their comfy bubble of only seeing interpretations which confirm their own bias.

masterwilde

with the new terror attacks in london, looking like a Mumbai style attack, things are not looking good

gfplux

ThinkingOutLoud wrote: »

Not sure we have anything to learn from the Spanish economy?

The post I was responding to appeared to imply that the price of wine had gone up dramatically for reasons other than the real major cause.

Should we tax alcohol like smoking in terms of its impact on h although costs - that is a debate worth having post-election!

The only thing we could learn, if it true is,
"Their health service is brilliant (here in Mallorca that is)."

I have seen a lot of Brits in Spain saying the same.

gfplux

Filo25 wrote: »

Speaking of polls being all over the place......

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-6)
LAB: 39% (+5)
LDEM: 8% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+2)

(via @Survation / 03 Jun)

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (+1)
LAB: 36% (-2)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-1)

(via ORB / 31 May - 01 Jun)

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-)
LAB: 34% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)

(via @ICMResearch)

And another.

YouGov/Times:

CON 42 (=)
LAB 38 (-1)
LD 9 (+2)
UKIP 4 (=)
OTH 8 (=)

Changes vs 31st
1st-2nd Jun
N=1,989

Surely one thing we all should have learnt by now that the polls have been getting it wrong.
We should ignore all of them until they change their losing run and get it right a few times.

gfplux

Joe_Horner wrote: »

Bears thinking about seeing as negotiation is about bringing the other guy round to your way of thinking!

She or her advisers have really dropped the ball. If she wins she needs to get some new advisers.

Filo25

I think the Tories will still win this pretty comfortably, although probably not with the kind of majority people were talking about when the campaign started.

Theresa May will come out of this damaged with both the general public and the Tory party though

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

I think the Tories will still win this pretty comfortably, although probably not with the kind of majority people were talking about when the campaign started.

Theresa May will come out of this damaged with both the general public and the Tory party though

Post Brexit all political parties have got to up their game. Hopefully they'll be some genuine talent rising to the top. As currently there's a lack of genuine leaders who are honest enough to tell it as it is. Rather than meander along with all sorts of vague promises.