Will Scotland become independent in the next 5 years?

GreatApe

westernpromise wrote: »

Difficult to be independent when you don't have a currency, which you won't. You were told this very clearly in 2014 and it should be obvious from recent history why no UK government is going to join any currency union with anyone.

It will never happen, regrettably. I'd enjoy the tax reduction from not subbing Scotland, but it'll never happen given that Scotland is basically insolvent.

I don't buy the 'insolvent' argument. You could basically apply it to every region bar London

So what would happen if say there was a London exit, do you think the 60 million rUK would be feked and the 8.5 million London would be all milk and honey? My guess is most of what makes London rich and pay more taxes and have higher GDP would be repatriated to rUK. So government, finance, legal, advertising, film, BBC, music, sport, accountancy, and a lot more would not be imported from an independent London making the independent London rich and the rUK poor.

This re-balancing would either happen via free floating currencies (with the London pound shooting up and the UK pound down forcing rUK to produce those services for themselves rather than import them from London) or via tariffs/barriers/politics

The argument that this would make rUK poor, to have those jobs themselves rather than import them seems somewhat silly. Overall I do not see why an independent Scotland would have to have a lower productivity than a rUK in the long term especially as advanced economies are ever tending towards more and more services. Is a Scottish teacher or accountant or actor or professor or solicitor less productive than their English counterpart?

westernpromise

But nobody is proposing that London become independent.

Some loonies are, however, proposing this for Scotland. And the problem they can't get over is that Scotland can't pay for itself on what it makes. It is a nation on welfare. Leave the union and they leave the welfare.

Instant catastrophic economic failure. No money to pay teachers, or pensions, or schemes their dole.

Bring it on. I could buy a castle in Scotland for £1.

TrickyTree83

westernpromise wrote: »

But nobody is proposing that London become independent.

Some loonies are, however, proposing this for Scotland. And the problem they can't get over is that Scotland can't pay for itself on what it makes. It is a nation on welfare. Leave the union and they leave the welfare.

Instant catastrophic economic failure. No money to pay teachers, or pensions, or schemes their dole.

Bring it on. I could buy a castle in Scotland for £1.

It might not be instant, they might get IMF bailouts, but then of course it'll be the nasty IMF telling them what to do instead of Westminster.

Instead of providing the people of Scotland with solutions, all the independence argument does is provide excuses and apportion blame.

Moto2

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It might not be instant, they might get IMF bailouts, but then of course it'll be the nasty IMF telling them what to do instead of Westminster.

Instead of providing the people of Scotland with solutions, all the independence argument does is provide excuses and apportion blame.

.. and who has the biggest say in the IMF?

The US
ergo.. Trump will be controlling what happens

zagubov

Moto2 wrote: »

.. and who has the biggest say in the IMF?

The US
ergo.. Trump will be controlling what happens

I wouldn't be worrying about Trump!
If ever anybody had enough on his plate already, that's him!

Moto2

zagubov wrote: »

I wouldn't be worrying about Trump!
If ever anybody had enough on his plate already, that's him!

Oh, I get the feeling that fella never has enough on his plate.

If he's crass enough to use the POTUS twitter account and his executive staff to ramp his daughter's tat, I'm fairly sure he wouldn't think twice of getting involved in it, should the urge grip him.

Moto2

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Odds are shifting over at the bookies. They seem to think it'll be a Yes in a second referendum.

Next Independence Referendum held before end 2020 6/5

Scotland to vote NO to Independence before end 2020 11/4

Scotland to vote YES to Independence before end 2020 3/1

No Independence Referendum held before end 2020 4/6

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/scottish/scottish-referendum/next-scottish-independence-referendum/221109144/

Do you know how bookmakers do things?

The odds don't reflect any probability, they simply mitigate liability and are a product of computer algorithms these days.
i.e. the odds are set to make a profit regardless of what anyone thinks will happen.

steampowered

Zxcv_Bnm wrote: »

And we still don't know what you'll use for money. Not the £, not the Euro. So, what?

The pound is a floating, publicly tradeable currency. An independent Scotland would be perfectly entitled to use the pound if it wants.

It is exactly the same with the dollar. Click here for a list of 13 countries which have the US dollar as their official currency. There are lots more countries where it is the main currency (if not the official one).

westernpromise

Who would be the lender of last resort?

Who would bail out a failing Scottish bank? It won't be the Bank of England (the clue why not is in the name).

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Any referendum/vote will happen before Scotland is taken out of the Single Market. Both the SNP and the Greens have been completely consistent on this it's why legislation for a second vote is going through Holyrood now. The SNP and the Greens will call it too given the above. Nothing to lose what with being out of the EU/Single Market anyway if they do nothing.

Doesn't make the slightest difference if you speculate that the "referendum/vote will happen before Scotland is taken out of the Single Market", or indeed what the result of that vote will be. Unless there is another Edinburgh Agreement the 'referendum' will have no legal status, and the UK government, the EU and everybody else will take no notice. Scotland will be leaving the EU anyway, no matter what.